New polls out today show Klobuchar currently ahead in Governor’s race, and a continued tight race for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat. Also: Nearly 128,000 votes have already been cast substack.com/home/post/p-...
Craig Helmstetter
@craigstetter.bsky.social
Data geek. Ph.D. Sociologist. Minnesotan. Member: AAPOR, ASA. Former: Managing Partner, APM Research Lab (American Public Media's data journalism hub); Wilder Research/MN Compass; Community Indicators Consortium president; MN Legislative Auditor's Office
News about @pennstateuniv.bsky.social's Mood of the Nation Poll www.psu.edu/news/liberal...
Poll finds bipartisan support for US presidents enforcing Constitutional laws | Penn State University
A McCourtney Institute for Democracy Mood of the Nation poll found that 70% of Americans believe that presidents are bound by the Constitution to enforce all laws, even if they question the constituti...
psu.edu
I got curious about how absentee voting is going here in Minnesota, so I looked it up and added this graph to the bottom of my MN Polling Roundup. As of today, Sec. of State is reporting: 424,515 absentee ballots requested 63,396 already accepted More: craigstetter.substack.com/p/minnesota-...
Craig Helmstetter@craigstetter.bsky.social · last wk.Just Updated, with two new polls and the latest forecaster ratings. The upshot: the national blue wave is not notable in Minnesota craigstetter.substack.com/p/minnesota-...
Just Updated, with two new polls and the latest forecaster ratings. The upshot: the national blue wave is not notable in Minnesota craigstetter.substack.com/p/minnesota-...
Minnesota election polling round-up (Sept. 30 update)
New polls in races for U.S. Senate and Minnesota's U.S. House District 1 show tight races
craigstetter.substack.com
“What does the Constitution require of American presidents? …A very large majority, 70%, said that ‘All presidents have a duty to enforce all the laws, with no exceptions.’” My latest, with Eric Plutzer, featuring findings from a recent Mood of the Nation Poll democracy.psu.edu/poll-report-...
Americans weigh in on presidential and citizen responsibilities to the rule of law - The McCourtney Institute for Democracy
democracy.psu.edu
Join us! This will be a chance to dig even deeper into the @lumaris.com survey results that we presented at the Sept 22 the "Documenting the Impact of US DHS Activity in MN" event convened by @aaronsojourner.org @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social, @spelika.bsky.social & co.
Twin Cities Research Group@tcresearchgroup.bsky.social · 2w agoTCRG Webinar: Metro Surge: Opinions and experiences of Minnesotans. Jens Manuel Krogstad and Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social present on @lumaris.com 's recent MN Community Surveys concerning Operation Metro Surge. Oct 21. RSVP at tcrgoct21.eventbrite.com
4 in 10 Minnesotans planned to travel for vacation this summer. Most who travel are leaving the state, while Lake Superior's North Shore still tops the list for those who stay. New Minnesota Community Survey analysis.
"the data show that while the overall opinion toward Minnesota only dropped slightly, this was driven by a 6 point drop among those identifying as Republican" craigstetter.medium.com/nationally-m...
Great to participate in yesterday's "Documenting the Impact of US DHS Activity in MN" event convened by @aaronsojourner.org, @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social, @spelika.bsky.social & co Got to share results from @lumaris.com's statewide survey of Minnesotans: www.lumaris.com/blog/2026/07...
This is what I’ll be talking about at the upcoming Sept 22 research conference at UMN HHH on the Impacts of DHS Operations in Minnesota, put on by @aaronsojourner.org @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social & co
Lumaris Research@lumaris.com · 2mo agoMost Minnesotans — 63% — say last winter's surge in federal immigration agents hurt the state's economy. Republicans are evenly divided, while 84% of Democrats say the surge hurt the economy. New Minnesota Community Survey analysis.
Program's up! 30+ teams share evidence abt impacts on health, educ, & econ + community response. Great folks @ziibiing.com @ottergoose.net @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social @chrisuggen.bsky.social @casemcnich.bsky.social @ngraetz.bsky.social @craigstetter.bsky.social docs.google.com/document/u/1...
Who cross-country skis in the US? ..a clip from my experiment using AI to animate a survey article I wrote. Your cheers and jeers are welcome. See the whole video and find out more about this experiment, as well as the surveys: craigstetter.substack.com/p/who-cross-... #crosscountryskiing
Transparency in #surveyresearch is more important than ever. Through the #AAPOR Transparency Initiative, orgs commit to routinely disclosing key methodological details so the public, journalists & other research consumers can better understand how findings were produced. Learn more: aapor.org?p=234
Transparency Initiative - AAPOR
aapor.org
Who cross-country skis in America? An experiment with using AI to animate survey findings craigstetter.substack.com/p/who-cross-... cc @aapor.bsky.social @ipsosus.bsky.social @verasight.io
Who cross-country skis in America?
An experiment with using AI to animate survey findings
craigstetter.substack.com
Craig Helmstetter@craigstetter.bsky.social · 2mo agoHey fellow skiers! I was able to field some questions about cross-country skiing in two high-quality national surveys, via @verasight.io & @ipsosus.bsky.social due to my @aapor.bsky.social membership Check out the results and let me know what you think craigstetter.medium.com/1-in-7-ameri...
"A 2025 survey by APM Research Lab... found that California had a -53 point favorability rating among Republicans and was the only state with a net negative rating" True, but the survey was only about MN, IA, WI & CA www.apmresearchlab.org/blog/on-seco... AND...
On second look, nation favors Wisconsin slightly more than Minnesota or Iowa. And much more than California. — APM Research Lab
Earlier this summer we reported that the “nation thinks Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa are ‘equally good.’” New data suggests that Wisconsin has the slight edge. However, Democrats favor Minnesota and ...
apmresearchlab.org
David Knowles@writerknowles.bsky.social · last mo.“It’s not a good thing in national Democratic politics to be from California because our state is eyed with deep suspicion by those in the key primary states,” said Steve Maviglio, a long-time California political consultant. www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/open...
Hey fellow skiers! I was able to field some questions about cross-country skiing in two high-quality national surveys, via @verasight.io & @ipsosus.bsky.social due to my @aapor.bsky.social membership Check out the results and let me know what you think craigstetter.medium.com/1-in-7-ameri...
1 in 7 American adults have cross-country skied. Who are they?
If you cross-country skied last year, you are in the one percent!
craigstetter.medium.com
Do you run🏃♂️, golf ⛳️, downhill or cross-country ski ⛷️, or play basketball 🏀, tennis🎾, pickleball🥒 or soccer⚽️? Then check out some new survey results from questions I was able to field with @ipsosus.bsky.social as a part of their @aapor.bsky.social omnibus this year medium.com/runners-life...
Survey: Running Is the Most Popular of Eight Lifelong Sports
Who really plays basketball, pickleball, and soccer?
medium.com
If you are from Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa or California, and wonder what Americans think about your state I have some interesting new survey findings for you craigstetter.medium.com/nationally-m... Includes a little bit of info about AI & even pickleball @ipsosus.bsky.social @aapor.bsky.social
Nationally, Minnesota’s favorability has fallen and become more polarized
Ratings of Wisconsin, Iowa and California all increased and became less polarized
craigstetter.medium.com
Most Minnesotans — 63% — say last winter's surge in federal immigration agents hurt the state's economy. Republicans are evenly divided, while 84% of Democrats say the surge hurt the economy. New Minnesota Community Survey analysis.
My latest: More findings from @lumaris.com's summer 2026 Minnesota Community Survey, this time highlighting the travel plans of Minnesotans. I was fortunate to be able to travel to MN's North Shore again this summer. How about you?
Lumaris Research@lumaris.com · 2mo ago4 in 10 Minnesotans planned to travel for vacation this summer. Most who travel are leaving the state, while Lake Superior's North Shore still tops the list for those who stay. New Minnesota Community Survey analysis.
Lindell had the lowest net favorability rating, just below Trump, in @lumaris.com's most recent Minnesota Community Survey www.lumaris.com/blog/minneso...
The Downballot@the-downballot.com · 3mo agoTrump has endorsed Mike Lindell, one of the most infamous election deniers anywhere in the country, in next month’s Republican primary for Minnesota governor.
Lindell had the lowest net favorability rating, just below Trump, in @lumaris.com's most recent Minnesota Community Survey www.lumaris.com/blog/minneso...
The Downballot@the-downballot.com · 3mo agoTrump has endorsed Mike Lindell, one of the most infamous election deniers anywhere in the country, in next month’s Republican primary for Minnesota governor.
#happyjuly4 🇺🇸 How are you celebrating?
Lumaris Research@lumaris.com · 3mo agoMinnesotans are far warier of the country's next 50 years than their state's — 67% concerned about the nation vs. 49% about Minnesota. Democrats are the only party more hopeful than concerned about the state, and Black Minnesotans are the most hopeful of any racial or ethnic group, at 41%.
Minnesotans are far warier of the country's next 50 years than their state's — 67% concerned about the nation vs. 49% about Minnesota. Democrats are the only party more hopeful than concerned about the state, and Black Minnesotans are the most hopeful of any racial or ethnic group, at 41%.
Amy Klobuchar leads Minnesota's political field at +17 net favorability; Mike Lindell trails at −37. Trump sits at −30 — his lowest in the state since summer 2025. Across four surveys, most figures' ratings have slipped. Klobuchar is the exception.
Liberty ✔️Only 14% said that our system of government was doing an excellent job “Ensuring that citizens can express their views, even when they are unpopular” and ✔️17% gave a grade of excellent for “Ensuring that citizens can worship, think, and travel as they please.” #USA250
Craig Helmstetter@craigstetter.bsky.social · 4mo ago250 years after the Declaration how would you grade the government's protection of life, liberty & the pursuit of happiness? C+ from America overall, incl: ✔️C from Democrats ✔️B- from Republicans My latest with Eric Plutzer via McCourtney Institute for Democracy democracy.psu.edu/poll-report-...
In MN, immigrants are 4x as likely as the U.S. born to be following the World Cup (46% vs. 11%). Plus, more than 4 in 10 Black and Latino Minnesotans are following, compared with fewer than 1 in 10 White Minnesotans.
Liberty ✔️Only 14% said that our system of government was doing an excellent job “Ensuring that citizens can express their views, even when they are unpopular” and ✔️17% gave a grade of excellent for “Ensuring that citizens can worship, think, and travel as they please.” #USA250
Craig Helmstetter@craigstetter.bsky.social · 4mo ago250 years after the Declaration how would you grade the government's protection of life, liberty & the pursuit of happiness? C+ from America overall, incl: ✔️C from Democrats ✔️B- from Republicans My latest with Eric Plutzer via McCourtney Institute for Democracy democracy.psu.edu/poll-report-...