China’s Pressure Campaign Against Taiwan Puts African Nations in a Bind

Recent incidents suggest that Africa could become a more regular arena for Beijing’s coercive diplomacy over Taiwan.

worldpoliticsreview.com

Senegal’s Debt Crisis Has Moved Its Leaders from Partners to Rivals

The impacts of the Faye-Sonko rupture could go well beyond the country’s borders.

carnegieendowment.org

Tshisekedi Maneuvers for a Controversial Third Term in DR Congo

Tshisekedi’s bid for a third term could face fewer obstacles than those that ultimately unseated his predecessor, Joseph Kabila, in 2018.

worldpoliticsreview.com

DR Congo leader Félix Tshisekedi hints at extending term and delaying polls

"If the people want me to have a third term, I will accept," Tshisekedi says, with him due to step down in 2028.

bbc.com

Russia Just Stumbled in Mali

YouTube video by Preston Stewart

youtu.be

Nigeria’s Airpower-Centric Counterinsurgency Is Costing Civilian Lives

A recent airstrike that killed 200 civilians shows the gap between the Nigerian military’s emphasis on civilian harm mitigation and operational practice.

worldpoliticsreview.com

Aksum massacre: Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed hits out at Eritrea over atrocities in Tigray

Abiy Ahmed admitted for the first time in parliament that Eritrean troops had killed people in Aksum.

bbc.com

Diaspora Mapping and Congressional Pressure Points

I’m a systems person, so cracking the code of how people and institutions function is a bit of a drug. Fellow travelers may appreciate the story of the most effective and impactful diaspora engagement that I witnessed as the Africa staffer on the House Foreign Affairs Committee between 2015 and 2021 in my Substack.

lesleyannewarner.com

Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland Will Reverberate Beyond the Horn of Africa

To cap off the year, I wrote about the fascinating geopolitics of Israel's recognition of Somaliland and the broader implications for state sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity in this era of global disorder. This action comes at a particularly awkward time, with Somalia about to start its presidency of the UN Security Council having lost two potential allies on the A3+1 (with Algeria and Guyana rotating off) and gaining a potentially unhelpful Bahrain, which was an original signatory to the Abraham Accords.

lesleyannewarner.com

CFR Event: What’s Next for the Global Gen Z Uprisings?

Yesterday, at the Council on Foreign Relations, I presented insights on the Gen Z protests that have occurred across Africa, which have represented the most significant continent-wide mobilization since the post-Arab Spring era. 💫 I wrote about these issues in World Politics Review a few weeks back, so you can check it out ICYMI:  Top takeaways? 1️⃣ At least 9 African countries have experienced major Gen Z protests.

lesleyannewarner.com

M23 rebels entrench their rule in east Congo even as Trump claims peace

Experts say there’s a chance Congo faces an enduring fracture.

reuters.com

Trump’s Nominee for Ambassador to South Africa Gets a Vote in Committee + Legislative Updates

A few months ago, I wrote about the House bill on South Africa that went through markup and was voted out of Committee. Today, as Trump’s ambassadorial nominee to South Africa is being considered in a business meeting at SFRC this morning, I wrote a brief update about a Senate bill on South Africa and a brief assessment of the chances of either passing during the remaining time in the 119th Congress and signed into law. 🔗 Read my updated analysis here:

lesleyannewarner.com

The Political Theater Behind Trump’s “Guns-a-Blazing” Nigeria Threat

Today in Just Security, I wrote about the political theater behind Trump's threat to go into Nigeria "guns-a-blazing" to protect Christians, who he claims, are being persecuted. I unpack the country's longstanding, multifaceted security challenges, including some which are likely being conflated to fit the President's narrative. I provide background as to how this has played in U.S. domestic politics over the past two decades - and how it has evolved from a fringe issue in U.S.-Africa policy into something that is deeply important to the electoral base that won Trump the White House in 2016 and 2024.

lesleyannewarner.com

Trump’s Short-Sighted Reengagement With the Sahel’s Juntas

President Donald Trump has become “coup curious” when it comes to the military-led governments of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Since Trump’s return to the White House in January, the National Security Council and State Department have resumed high-level diplomatic engagements that had been suspended under Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, while encouraging U.S. energy and mining companies to explore new contracts and 

lesleyannewarner.com

Gen Z Uprisings Underscore a Crisis of Legitimacy in African Democracies

From Antananarivo to Rabat, young demonstrators have taken to the streets carrying a message that the social contract has been broken and their patience has run out. Over the past 18 months, youth-led protests have rattled Morocco’s constitutional monarchy, forced Kenyan President William Ruto to withdraw a controversial tax hike, and toppled the government of Andry Rajoelina in Madagascar. Like their 

lesleyannewarner.com

The Death of Odinga, a Consummate Dealmaker, Upends Kenyan Politics

In life, Raila Amolo Odinga was both kingmaker and perennial challenger, as well as a practitioner of political dealmaking who repeatedly reshaped Kenya’s democratic landscape through strategic alliances. His death last week at the age of 80 complicates incumbent President William Ruto’s path to a second term in the 2027 elections due to Odinga’s key role in the ethnic and regional alignments necessary for Ruto—or any politician for that matter—to secure the country’s top office.

lesleyannewarner.com

From 'Defending the Defenders' to Diplomatic Desertion

The Significance of the U.S. Government Ceasing Moral and Diplomatic Support to Pro-Democracy Activists in Africa

substack.com

With a Fourth-Term Bid, Cote d’Ivoire’s Ouattara Is Playing With Fire

The Cote d’Ivoire president’s bid for controversial fourth term could backfire, with implications for the country and the region.

worldpoliticsreview.com

Seven Pillars of Military Integration for DRC-Rwanda Peace Accord

These pillars outline requirements to manage armed groups and integrate them into statutory military forces during a war-to-peace transition.

justsecurity.org

Seven Pillars of Military Integration for the DRC-Rwanda Peace Accord

Efforts by the United States and Qatar to end the decades-long conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo have accelerated significantly since late June, building on earlier mediation initiatives led by the African Union, the East African Community, and the Luanda and Nairobi processes. The conflict originated in the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, and the current phase of diplomacy was catalyzed by a foundational U.S.-brokered DRC–Rwanda 

lesleyannewarner.com

With a Fourth-Term Bid, Cote d’Ivoire’s Ouattara Is Playing With Fire

After months of playing coy, President Alassane Ouattara of Cote d’Ivoire announced earlier this week that he will run for a controversial fourth term in the country’s presidential election in October. In preparing the ground for his announcement, Ouattara has made Cote d’Ivoire’s economic performance central to his electoral strategy. Since he first came to power following the 2010-2011 post-election crisis that claimed over 3,000 lives, Cote d’Ivoire has experienced a remarkable economic recovery.

lesleyannewarner.com

From ‘Defending the Defenders’ to Diplomatic Desertion

With recent popular protests in Kenya and Togo and election-like events on the docket in Cameroon and Uganda in the coming months, I wrote about how we used to tactically use the USG's moral and diplomatic support to 'defend the defenders' of democracy and human rights in Africa when I was on the Hill. It goes without saying that, in Africa and abroad, we are not at all consistent in deploying this support.

lesleyannewarner.com

Reading between the lines of H.R. 2633 (aka the South Africa bill)

On a recent call, a client was asking about H.R.2633 (U.S.-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act of 2025), which is now scheduled to be marked up by the House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFAC) this morning. (Note: For those unfamiliar with Hill process, a markup is when Committee members debate, amend, and vote on legislation before it can advance to the full House floor.

lesleyannewarner.com