Luke Kawa

@ljkawa.bsky.social

Markets, Twain, Leafs, Survivor

Goldman on SpaceX: “We continue to expect the buildout of total compute to be 100% terrestrial through year-end 2028, with orbital compute beginning to scale in 2029 & beyond.” $SPCX

Forgot to put the sweet potatoes in my pumpkin chili and instead turned it (and yogurt, and black cocoa powder) into five pounds of chocolate mousse. Gotta say, eating five pounds of chocolate mousse is delightful, highly recommend.

No one in their right minds thinks AI capex will be “immune” from higher rates in perpetuity. The argument is “less vulnerable than the traditionally rate sensitive sectors.” imo by time higher rates are hitting AI capex, top-line trends will also look less impressive.

I wonder how much alpha there is in finding babies thrown out with bathwater in thematic baskets like “inertia stocks” that get thrown together...

Over the past couple years, $NVDA has been a stock that has done nothing for a year/7 months, then proceeded to double in a few months/go up 40% in six weeks. Past performance no yadda yadda yadda but obviously something that’s top of mind with the fresh high.