Andrew Dessler

@andrewdessler.com

Prof of Atmospheric Sciences & climate scientist @ Texas A&M; AGU and AAAS Fellow; Native Texan; find out what I think at https://www.theclimatebrink.com/

reanalysis tweeps: does anyone have any idea why ECMWF has stopped distributing CERA20C? I thought it was the update to ERA20C, which is very old and has some obvious problems. If CERA20C is still available, where would I find it?

In 1985-86, I worked in Rick Smalley's lab at Rice doing undergrad research. He went on to win the 1996 Nobel Prize in chemistry. Did these people won the Nobel Prize *because* of me? I'll let you draw your own conclusion, but, come on, we all know that correlation proves causality.

Andrew Dessler@andrewdessler.com · last wk.

When I was a grad student, I TA'ed intro chemistry. I had a lot of really smart students in my class. One of them just won a Nobel Prize. He also went to my high school. Small world.

When I was a grad student, I TA'ed intro chemistry. I had a lot of really smart students in my class. One of them just won a Nobel Prize. He also went to my high school. Small world.

In other words: This meme is a surprisingly accurate scaled depiction of the magnitude of the 2026 El Niño event vs the 1997 event *if using the absolute index.* But if using the relative index, Danny DeVito is currently the same height as Arnold Schwarzenegger. And either pairing is striking... 👀

A common meme from the movie "Twins" featuring Arnold Schwarzenegger towering over a similarly dressed Danny Devito modified such that "1997" appears above the diminuitive DeVito, and 2026 above Schwarzenegger.
Daniel Swain@weatherwest.bsky.social · 2w ago

Wading into the "relative versus absolute" El Niño intensity debate: I genuinely think both are important--and I think we lose important information if we focus solely on one vs another. And both, as of late Sep, have now reached or exceeded record levels! [Thread]

Plot by Daniel Swain showing temporal evolution of ONI vs RONI index during 2026, representing two different ways to visualize El Nino intensity. The ONI has been at record levels since May, and the RONI has been at near-record levels since June. Data directly from NOAA.

Temperatures in the Central Pacific El Niño region are the hottest ever measured (top panel), and far above any other El Niño at this time of year. But, if you adjust for the warming of the global ocean, the current trajectory is not so different from other very strong events.

Two panel plot showing daily time series of temperature anomalies in the Central Pacific Nino3.4 region during the last four strongest El Niño events without and with correction for changes in global ocean mean temperature.

In Texas, the State is removing climate change courses from the core curriculum. They have decided that climate change is just too dangerous to teach the students. This is indoctrination. I wrote an oped about it in the SA Express-News. Gift link: www.expressnews.com/opinion/comm...

Texas can’t hide from climate change by stopping students from learning about it

Texas has removed climate change courses from core curriculum at public universities. Ignoring climate change will not serve the state.

expressnews.com

faculty tweeps: How many students do you need to have before you feel OK not knowing all of their names. I feel OK not knowing students' names in a class of 100, but I would feel terrible for a class of 20.

Letting Hader throw so many pitches was a risk that didn't pay off. Hader obviously not available today and I wonder if he'll be available tomorrow. Unless the Astros or Rangers go 4-0, the winner of the AL West in 2026 will set a record for worst record to win a division.

Chandler Rome@chandlerrome.bsky.social · 3w ago

The Astros lost 6-5. They are 78-80. Joe Espada pushed the chips in with his $95 million closer on the mound. It did not work. Josh Hader threw 44 pitches — his most in a regular-season game since Aug. 9, 2019. Josh Naylor hit the final one for a walk-off single