António Afonso
@theiiiman.bsky.social
🇪🇺 🇵🇹 Professor of Economics, ISEG, University of Lisbon. President, UECE. Previous: ECB, CGD, IGCP, Ministry of Finance. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6926-2653 Also https://x.com/theIIIman
#IIPF2026 Congress at ISEG Lisbon, today's program starting with Thiemo Fetzer's @trfetzer.com keynote with the title "Are the Informational Boundaries of the State Being Redrawn"; introduced by Scientific Co-Chair Naomi Feldman. @dforemny.bsky.social @theiiiman.bsky.social
15th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Universidade de Lisboa, 16 July 2027 uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/events/2027/...
📢 Early bird registration fee until 5 June 📢 Public Finance scholars, join #IIPF2026 in Lisbon this August! Keynotes on "Public Finances in Turmoil", >350 contributed papers, networking... More info at www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/en/event/iipf/
82nd Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance
ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics & Management is hosting the 82nd Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF), one of the world's most prestigious gatherings in the field ...
iseg.ulisboa.pt
Last slots. ISEG MMFE (www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/en/study/mas...): next step in your career. Employers recognize to graduates a strong background in quantitative methods, macro, monetary and financial economics. Half mandatory courses; half chosen by the student. 1/3-1/2 international students.
Happy to have one of the most cited papers in FinanzArchiv, one of the world's oldest professional journals in public finance, founded in 1884. www.mohrsiebeck.com/en/journal/f...
Dornbusch, Rudiger. 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics." Journal of Political Economy, 84: 1161-1176. ➡️ We get 90% of AI in this classical paper, even before AI was available!
"Impact of Sovereign Debt Maturity on Fiscal Sustainability", forthcoming 2026 [ABS 3; ABDC B] António Afonso, José Alves, Oļegs Matvejevs, Olegs Tkacevs. 🌀 19 developed countries (1995-20): gov debt with maturity above 10y reduces fiscal responsiveness. 🌀QE played a key role.
14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/.../2026/efa... Keynote: Roel Beetsma.
⏳ Deadline approaching: submit your public finance paper by February 15 and join us at #IIPF2026 in Lisbon, Portugal, in August! What to expect: keynotes, paper sessions on various topics, social program, networking. Further info at www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/en/event/iipf/ and www.iipf.org/cng.htm
ISEG PhD in Economics (www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/en/study/phd...) thesis defense. Congratulations Jorge Braga Ferreira. 16.01.2026. António Afonso, Frederico Silva Leal, José Alves, Manuel Martins
Portuguese academy (although this might occur also in other countries) seems to have a serious problem: strongly resists the meritocratic recognition of scientific quality. Indeed, the results of academic competitions often depend on webs of interests, favors, factions, and political connections.
iipf.org/cng.htm The 82nd Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (@iipf.bsky.social) will be held at ISEG Lisbon, Portugal, from August 24-26, 2026. Local organization: António Afonso, José Alves and João Pereira dos Santos (all ISEG Lisbon).
ISEG PhD Economics (lnkd.in/gwuCTJ_K) Advanced education with high level of technical and scientific qualification. Enabling an international career in economics and in highly qualified roles in the public/private sector. Acceptance rate: 35%. International students; 55%.
ISEG MMFE (lnkd.in/dgcP4B2v): next step in your career. Employers recognize to graduates a strong background in quantitative methods, macro, monetary and financial economics. Half of the courses are mandatory; half chosen by the student. 1/3-1/2 international students.
Papers (lnkd.in/dTENAgs9) of this SI were presented at the 10th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments (lnkd.in/ekprsCaB), ISEG – Lisbon School of Economics and Management, 22-Jul-2022. Editors: António Afonso (guest editor); Jan-Egbert Sturm.
14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/.../2026/efa... Keynote: Roel Beetsma.
New 3-bedroom flat, 150 sq m, Avenidas Novas, Lisbon, 1500000 EUR. New 3-bedroom flat, 164 sq m, Porte de Namur, Brussels, 1000000 EUR. Price in Lisbon is 50% higher than in Brussels. Per capita income in Brussels is 100% higher than in Lisbon.
🚨Working Paper Alert! "Drivers of New Business Creation in the OECD: The Role of Education and Taxation" ✍️ @theiiiman.bsky.social M. Carmen Blanco-Arana & Ana J. Cisneros-Ruiz Find out how education and taxation drive new business creation in OECD countries 🌍: www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...
Stock and sovereign returns linkages: time-varying causality and extreme-quantile determinants. Forthcoming, International Review of Financial Analysis. António Afonso, José Alves, Wojciech Grabowski, Sofia Monteiro.
www.economist.com/briefing/201... Back in 2010 the Economist was the case for tax cuts: "A paper by António Afonso of the European Central Bank and Davide Furceri of the OECD found that increases in government spending as a proportion of GDP tended to be correlated with slower economic growth."
Sharing the pain
Increasing budget deficits and rising government debts are likely to entail fierce political battles—not least between taxpayers and public-sector workers
economist.com
Happy to be in the World's top 1%! Elsevier Data Repository, Aug 2025. "Updated science-wide author databases of standardized citation indicators" elsevier.digitalcommonsdata.com/datasets/btc...
www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu... A discretionary positive shock to the primary balance leads to a decrease in real government debt, a result consistent with a Monetary Dominant regime and sustainable fiscal practices.
14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/events/2026/... Keynote: Roel Beetsma
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... António Afonso, Francisco Gomes Pereira. "An expansionary monetary policy stance, following an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, leads to lower primary balances."
Does monetary policy influence euro area fiscal sustainability?
This paper studies the impact of monetary policy on fiscal sustainability in the euro area. We extend a standard fiscal reaction function by introduci…
sciencedirect.com
lnkd.in/dkjH8fbV "Greater skewness is associated with higher sovereign bond yields and higher short-term interest rates. In contrast, an increase in debt concentration tends to reduce both sovereign bond yields and short-term interest rates."
