We intuitively underestimate how intertwined common sense and social science are. Social science is shot through with common sense, and conversely, it has gradually changed common sense in ways we often fail to see. www.update.news/p/social-sci...
Stefan Schubert
@stefanschubert.bsky.social
I run The Update newsletter: www.update.news Book: academic.oup.com/book/56384
Many people are optimistic about the potential for further progress in psychology, but I think they underestimate the obstacles, as well as how much of the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. www.update.news/p/the-limits...
Why are our explanations of other people’s actions often so cynical? In today's post I lay out a series of causes and argue that this cynical bias is akin to our neglect of human agency. www.update.news/p/the-roots-...
Substantial existential risk is more likely to be concentrated in one or two outliers than in several unrelated threats.
Existential risk estimates depend on both the difficulty of the problem (what it'd take to prevent disaster) and our likely response, but the first factor gets most attention. Here I argue that's a mistake. www.update.news/p/the-respon...
Dan Williams recently argued that pessimism about human motivation – especially about overcoming selfishness – is more warranted than epistemic pessimism. I agree, and here discuss the psychological and evolutionary roots of this asymmetry. www.update.news/p/why-were-e...
Why we’re epistemically flexible but stubbornly self-regarding
A deep-rooted psychological asymmetry
update.news
My friends and I made this path thirty years ago by larping in the ditch. I'm glad to see it has survived.
I wrote a post about cultural differences between psychology and economics -- things were I specifically believe econ is doing better. Surprisingly, I still stand by those points 8 years later. Somebody from econ should write a counterpart though about things that psychology does better 🤭
Stefan Schubert@stefanschubert.bsky.social · 3mo agoI agree that some of the criticisms are exaggerated but also think that the issues are deeper than this suggests. I liked this post of yours. www.the100.ci/2018/12/04/e...
Danish paper finds big economic gains from GLP-1 drugs. “We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual.” www.nber.org/papers/w35475
The UK used to be much more unequal than Sweden, but the Gini coefficients have almost converged. Perceptions are lagging.
I gave a talk on the case for epistemic discipline at EAGx Nordics. When you encounter people who don't even try to give arguments, it's better to calmly explain that this is the case than to respond sarcastically or try to reinterpret them charitably. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTml...
The Case for Epistemic Discipline | Stefan Schubert | EAGxNordics 2026
YouTube video by Effective Altruism
youtube.com
“We’re good at solving problems, but not as good at seeing how other people solve theirs” @stefanschubert.bsky.social explores the Rationality Gap. It may be more than merely “not seeing” others’ capability, eg a WYSIATI-like, ignorance-flavoured underestimation: buff.ly/7qE6E7i
We're often much more rational as actors than as outside observers of other people's actions. It distorts our worldview, making us think we sleepwalk into disasters and bad outcomes. www.update.news/p/the-ration...
Shootings have fallen more than 2/3 in Sweden the last three years
You can’t dismiss AI revenue growth as hype the way you might dismiss investments or high valuations. www.update.news/p/the-tables...
AI sceptics have long dismissed short or medium timelines as speculation with no basis in data. But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break. www.update.news/p/the-tables...
The tables have turned on AI sceptics
Epistemic conservatism no longer favours long timelines
update.news
AI sceptics have long dismissed short or medium timelines as speculation with no basis in data. But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break. www.update.news/p/the-tables...
The tables have turned on AI sceptics
Epistemic conservatism no longer favours long timelines
update.news
People love sharing the OkCupid chart where women find most men unattractive, and the rumour that one in ten children has a different father than they think. But some stories are too juicy to be true. www.update.news/p/women-dont...
Women don’t think 80 percent of men are below average, and the share of children with a secret dad is far below 10 percent
Juicy stories are often false
update.news
Enjoyed the linked post by Alex Imas: "If the model is right, the durable jobs of the future won’t be about monitoring AI systems or prompt engineering. ... . The durable jobs will be in the relational sector, where the human element is the product itself." aleximas.substack.com/p/what-will-...
What will be scarce?
The economics of structural change and the post-commodity future of work
aleximas.substack.com
Stefan Schubert@stefanschubert.bsky.social · 6mo agoAI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
AI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
AI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
There's been another good debate among economists about the impact of AI on the labour market, this time centred on a nice essay by Alex Imas. But I think some economists still underestimate how weird the world of advanced AI is going to be. www.update.news/p/ai-economi...
Why clinical trials are broken & how to fix them: a reading list forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wsMxed...
Why clinical trials are broken & how to fix them: a reading list — EA Forum
12 articles including 4 podcasts • EA/LW Intro: I believe clinical trial abundance could be an EA cause area - there's still a lot of disability/dise…
forum.effectivealtruism.org
Sweden and German intelligence agencies report that Russian official economic data is fake www.ft.com/content/04a9...
When ChatGPT was launched, almost all users were men – but now, women are the majority www.update.news/p/will-ai-dr...
Anthropic just passed $1 trillion in valuation on Ventuals. OpenAI still has the most users but have fallen behind in terms of valuation. www.update.news/p/nature-stu...
The debate over AI and jobs is too nearsighted, and should consider where we're eventually heading. AI leaders talking about widespread automation isn't a mere marketing strategy. www.update.news/p/growth-won...
