Robert Rohde
@rarohde.bsky.social
Chief Scientist for @berkeleyearth.org. Physics PhD & data nerd. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, & air quality issues.
Less than HALF the amount of the previous record for driest July. Less than 10% of the average. Records are not merely falling, they are being obliterated. Just like our nature and farms. nation.cymru/news/wales-r...
Wales records driest July since records began
Nation.Cymru staff/agencies Wales has experienced its driest July since records began nearly two centuries ago, following a month of exceptionally low rainfall, record sunshine and high temperatures. ...
nation.cymru
I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.
First comes heat, then comes fire. it's a sad reality that persistent heatwaves often create the conditions for serious wildfires, as is happening now in Spain and southern France. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Thousands flee wildfires in France and Spain as temperatures reach extreme levels in southern Europe
France asks EU for help while Spain declares national emergency around Madrid, as marine heatwave sees parts of Mediterranean Sea 5C hotter than normal
theguardian.com
See the alternating warm and cold patches in the Northern mid-latitudes? That's the imprint of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave (i.e. oscillations in the jet stream). It's rare to see it so clearly in a monthly-average temperature map.
When winds coming over a mountain range are forced to descend rapidly, the moisture loss and pressure change causes rapid heating. Such hot, dry Foehn winds occur occasionally next to mountains all over the world, but this is the most extreme example I've ever seen.
Nahel Belgherze@wxnb.bsky.social · 2w agoI've never seen anything like it. Salta, Argentina, has just recorded its hottest night on record during the climatologically coldest time of the year. The minimum overnight temperature did not fall below 26°C (78.8°F), pulverizing the previous monthly record by 7°C.
The seasonal forecast models continue to point towards an end of the year El Niño peak that would be the strongest ever recorded. Even the least extreme models are predicting a top-5 "Super" El Niño event.
Temperatures during fire season in Canada (May-Sept) have risen a bit more than 2 °C (3.6 °F) in the last 50 years. Climate warming doesn't start fires, but persistent hot and dry conditions can increase flammable fuel load, making any fires that do occur more severe. 1/
Exciting launch news from Berkeley Earth
Berkeley Earth@berkeleyearth.org · 4w agoWe are excited to announce our new climate data platform: Synthesis by Berkeley Earth synthesis.berkeleyearth.org It connects historical data (e.g. weather stations, city and regional averages) with bias-corrected climate model projections of the future. Introduction 🧵
Happy 250th birthday to the United States of America. A dream of freedom given form. An unfinished project carried forward by generations who crossed oceans and endured hardships to build better lives for themselves and their descendants in this beautiful land.
Back in April, we had the rare sight of dueling tropical cyclones less than 10° N and S of the equator in the Western Pacific warm pool. cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl... Has anyone tried to model the effect of this on El Niño? Is it just a coincidence or did it kickstart this event?
Heat waves are driven by weather patterns but occur on the backdrop of a rapidly warming world. Without climate change the current European heat wave would have been ~3.2 °C (5.8 °F) cooler. Heat impacts are non-linear, so this higher severity can lead to much greater suffering
Heatwaves are far more disruptive and dangerous in places not used to high temperatures. In Paris, where high heat and air conditioning are both rare, health risks increase sharply during heatwaves. By contrast, Texas has less impact from heat. From: ourworldindata.org/part-one-how...
Cooling Degree Days (CDD) is a measure of how much demand a place is likely to have for the use of artificial cooling. In Paris, CDD has doubled over the last 40 years and is expected to redouble this century under current emission policies (SSP2-45).
Apologies for the late notice, but @berkeleyearth.org will be holding our monthly climate press briefing looking at May temperatures starting in about 30 minutes. We'll also include some discussion of the current European heatwave. Registration link: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Berkeley Earth Monthly Press Briefing. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
Berkeley Earth invites you to our upcoming press briefing, where our Chief Scientist, Dr. Robert Rohde, joined by Dr. Zeke Hausfather, will present the latest global temperature findings and climate i...
us02web.zoom.us
The model spread for this year's El Niño forecasts remains insane. 11 of the 13 models expect a very strong (aka "super") El Niño. (rONI > 2 °C) 7 of 13 expect the strongest El Niño in modern history.
The world has warmed by around 1.4C since 1850. It took 148 years for the first half of that warming to occur, and just 27 years for the second half!
The heat will be brutal, and only ~27% of French homes have air conditioning.
Robert Rohde@rarohde.bsky.social · last mo.People will die this week. The next few days will bring record-breaking heat to France, a country ill-prepared for widespread temperatures over 40 °C (104 °F). For the French: stay hydrated, stay in the shade, exercise due caution, and seek help if you need it.
People will die this week. The next few days will bring record-breaking heat to France, a country ill-prepared for widespread temperatures over 40 °C (104 °F). For the French: stay hydrated, stay in the shade, exercise due caution, and seek help if you need it.
Global CO2 emissions have plateaued since 2013, leading to a slower growth in atmospheric CO2 than would have otherwise been the case. In a new analysis at The Climate Brink, I've taken look at what would have happened if emissions had continued to grow: www.theclimatebrink....
A powerful El Niño Event is expected to develop during 2026. How powerful? Well the seasonal forecasting models are currently all over the place. So, somewhere between a Top 10 event in modern history and super-bonkers extreme crazy land. 🤔 🧪🌊
Does El Niño forecasting have their own version of a "hot models" problem? There are currently 13 seasonal forecast ensembles used to predict future El Niño / La Niña. Diversity is good, but there remains broad disagreement among them, with some suggesting all-time records. 🧵
I've never actually seen an ENSO Index chart that included error bars, so I made one. 😉
Robert Rohde@rarohde.bsky.social · 2mo agoHistory of El Niño and La Niña events since 1850 by applying the Relative Oceanic Niño Index to Berkeley Earth data. The strongest El Niños on this index are 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 and 1877/78. Forecasts suggest an El Niño at the end of 2026 could challenge the record.
History of El Niño and La Niña events since 1850 by applying the Relative Oceanic Niño Index to Berkeley Earth data. The strongest El Niños on this index are 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 and 1877/78. Forecasts suggest an El Niño at the end of 2026 could challenge the record.
"RCP8.5 leads to a forcing level near the 90th percentile" - written to introduce the RCPs in 2011. link.springer.com/article/10.1... That extreme emissions & warming scenario was always intended to be unlikely (while still possible), but too often it was misconstrued as a likely future.
The representative concentration pathways: an overview - Climatic Change
This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a...
link.springer.com
"Australia has surpassed 400,000 home battery storage installations under the federal government’s Cheaper Home Batteries Program, reaching 11.2GWh of cumulative storage capacity in less than a year since the scheme launched." www.energy-storage.news/australia-hi... via George Heynes 🔌💡
Australia hits 400,000 home battery installations with 11.2GWh capacity in under a year
Australia has surpassed 400,000 home battery storage installations under the federal government's Cheaper Home Batteries Program.
energy-storage.news
Some of my tweets and other comments on the extraordinary nature of the March heatwave in the Western USA have been summarized in a PDF Report: berkeley-earth-wp-offload.storage.googleapis.com/wp-content/u...
😯 The ENSO modeling dashboard @hausfath.bsky.social created is showing a 50% chance of a very strong El Niño before the end of the year. dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#ensos These updates are helpful, as the monthly NOAA / IRI reports tend to lag behind the model updates.
It's not often that I look at a climate monitoring graph and go WTF?, but this is one of those moments. Did the land average temperature difference between daily maximum and daily minimum temperature really go sharply lower in 2025?
One frequently sees headlines that X is warming faster than the global average. That's true of nearly everywhere that humans live, but only because humans nearly all live on land. The process of global warming will generally warm land faster than the oceans.
