Last week I joined Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty for a wide ranging conversation on the Strait. We talked about the security environment, commercial vs mil incentives, coercion in diplomacy, and what it really means to restore freedom of navigation in the Gulf. www.rferl.org/a/hormuz-str...

Reopening Hormuz Strait Easier Than Restoring Confidence, Naval Analyst Tallis Says

With the US and Iran launching fresh strikes in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz is back under the spotlight. Naval strategist Joshua Tallis says restoring commercial confidence -- not military f...

rferl.org

I recently joined the @usni.org podcast to talk about my June Proceedings article on treating naval ship construction like a public utility. My thanks to @billhamblet.bsky.social for the invitation and great discussion! youtu.be/oNFpyI1d8SM?...

Shipbuilding as a Public Utility?

YouTube video by U.S. Naval Institute

youtu.be

This one is a bit provocative. www.usni.org/magazines/pr...

Treat Naval Shipbuilders Like Public Utilities

A utility designation would allow better regulation of and more rational capital allocation for the builders of the Navy’s capital ships.

usni.org

“"It was a tactical and operational victory and a strategic draw, if not a strategic defeat," said Joshua Tallis, a naval analyst at research firm CNA.” A 🧵 on the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, and what they teach us about the commercial variable in war at sea. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Western powers were unable to secure shipping in the Red Sea. Hormuz will be harder

The Western allies trying to negotiate a way to protect the Strait of Hormuz for energy shipping face a stark reality: a similar effort in the Red Sea that started years earlier cost billions of dolla...

reuters.com

“Three weeks before the Middle East war broke out, Tallis said, “With scenarios like Iran, the navy understands, at the top line, that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for the movement of oil.” www.lloydslist.com/LL1156532/Th...

They all said Hormuz closure would be brief. What if they were wrong?

On day six of the Middle East war, hope of a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is fading. There does not seem to be a quick fix. A material return of transits in the future will require shipowners to be convinced that the route is safe for their crew and vessel assets 

lloydslist.com

“President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that “if necessary”, the US Navy would escort tankers through the strait “as soon as possible”. The US Development Finance Corporation would also provide risk insurance and guarantees for tankers travelling in the Gulf “at a very reasonable price”.

Military briefing: how Iran could wage a new ‘tanker war’

Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz echo the 1980s conflict. Here are the weapons Tehran can use against commercial shipping

ft.com

First known mariner casualty of the war. www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/seaf...

Seafarer killed after explosion and fire hit tanker in the Middle East

Crewman is the first known seafaring casualty of the Middle East conflict

tradewindsnews.com

Thoughtful writeup by @lloydslistdaily.bsky.social on my recent remarks on global instability in the maritime domain as a commercial shipping conference this week. www.lloydslist.com/LL1156326/Ef...

Effect of geopolitics on shipping poised to escalate, so ‘buckle up’

There are so many geopolitical ‘black swans’ in shipping that they might as well be white. Disruption is now the rule, not the exception. Speakers at the HACC-NACC conference in New York laid out the risks ahead

lloydslist.com

It’s live! The U.S. Navy Fighting Instructions are ADM Caudle’s thesis on how the Navy adapts to dynamic adversaries. They are how the Navy builds a repeatable process to organize, train, and equip a force that is capable of deterring a fight and ending one.

"Latvia finds no link between ship and Baltic cable breach, probe goes on." This is a helpful reminder of two defining features of the critical undersea infrastructure (CUI) challenge.

Latvia finds no link between ship and Baltic cable breach, probe goes on

Latvian police have found no evidence linking a ship docked in the port of Liepaja to damage to an underwater telecoms cable running in the Baltic Sea from Latvia to Lithuania, but are investigating t...

reuters.com

What does it mean when an attack is designed to be intercepted?

Chicken Versus Bumper Cars in Conflict Escalation

Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel last April — and the attack might have been designed to fail. The strike was a show of force built

warontherocks.com

April 13, 2024. Iran launches hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel. Almost none hits. No one is killed. No critical infrastructure is destroyed. It was not a failure. As I argue, this is performative aggression, a game of bumper cars in a world long defined by games of chicken.

War on the Rocks@warontherocks.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Iran is using familiar weapons in ways that create unfamiliar dilemmas for its rivals.

My latest in War on the Rocks

War on the Rocks@warontherocks.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Iran is using familiar weapons in ways that create unfamiliar dilemmas for its rivals.

In 2019 I published a book on maritime insecurity, and in particular the challenge of aligning constabulary ways with military means. I argued at the time that, as maritime security threats rose in sophistication, it would be increasingly appealing to apply military resources to counter them.

The War for Muddy Waters: Pirates, Terrorists, Traffickers, and Maritime Insecurity

The War for Muddy Waters: Pirates, Terrorists, Traffickers, and Maritime Insecurity [Tallis, Joshua] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The War for Muddy Waters: Pirates, Terrorists, Traffickers, and Maritime Insecurity

amazon.com

This @warontherocks.bsky.social article offers a valuable, skeptical assessment of how transformative first-person view (FPV) drones have been on the Ukrainian battlefield—and is a great illustration of why it matters to collect data on the ground.

I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck - War on the Rocks

In 2024 and 2025, I served for six months as an international volunteer on a first-person view attack drone team in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. My team

warontherocks.com

As the kinetic nature of the Israeli strikes on Iran capture attention, there are also other impacts across the maritime space, particularly looking at energy and commercial SLOCs, worth tracking.

It was a pleasure to rejoin the Sailor Pulse podcast to talk about the good, bad, and indifferent in Navy’s “fight from the MOC” journey. This was an interesting and fun discussion that reflects the underlying aspirations and frustrations in how fleet commanders envision the role of MOCs in war.

War on the Rocks@warontherocks.bsky.social · last yr.

Maritime Operations Centers were created with clear ambitions. But how often do those goals match reality? Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

Who could have seen that coming…

Red Sea Passage Remains a No-Go for Shipping Despite U.S. Action

nytimes.com

Joshua Tallis@doctallis.bsky.social · last yr.

Operation Prosperity Guardian was directionally right. Protecting maritime commerce is the kind of global public good that I would expect a superpower to provision in defense of the global trading system. The U.S. Navy provided nearly flawless tactical acumen in its execution.

I’ve rarely seen a command execute thoughtful in-stride campaign analysis. This should be a five alarm concern for CCDRs, the inability to monitor and self-assess operational level progress turns a four star into chief tactician instead of the strategic leader they’ve been selected to be.

Dr. Jonathan Schroden@jjschroden.bsky.social · last yr.

I worked at CENTCOM for 4 years in the 2000s trying to help them improve their assessment capabilities/approaches. If there’s one thing that command is NOT good at, it’s devising metrics that actually measure effectiveness

Rhymes with my own analysis from prior to Operation Rough Rider as well. warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...

How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks

For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in

warontherocks.com

Aric Toler@aric.bsky.social · last yr.

This new Times piece on the last month of American bombing of Yemen has some insane details. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/u...

CIMSEC IS RECRUITING! CIMSEC is now welcoming applications for a volunteer Deputy Editor-in-Chief. This person will be responsible for helping lead CIMSEC’s editorial operation. Please reach out to Content@cimsec.org to apply and for further details. www.linkedin.com/posts/dmitry...

Next month will mark 10 years of me being CIMSEC’s volunteer… | Dmitry Filipoff

Next month will mark 10 years of me being CIMSEC’s volunteer editor-in-chief. It has been an extremely fulfilling experience, and I am beyond grateful to all those I have gotten to work with along the...

linkedin.com

It was a pleasure to join @thecipherbrief.bsky.social to talk about the importance of the Arctic to the U.S.. In addition to the usual talking points on national security, I tried to also emphasize economics, trade, and climate here, without which we cannot understand global interest in the region.

Why the Arctic Matters More Than Ever

YouTube video by The Cipher Brief

youtu.be

This piece on the EU contribution to Red Sea defense is a nice pairing to the War on the Rocks piece I wrote on Operation Prosperity Guardian earlier this month. The author takes the EU perspective well and notes (with fairness) that many analyses (including mine, I'd add) are quite US-focused.

How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks

For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in

warontherocks.com

Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC)@cimsec.bsky.social · last yr.

NATO Naval Power Week - A Post-Mortem of the Red Sea Crisis: NATO versus the European Union Anna Matilde Bassoli discusses how a coherent NATO strategy for the Red Sea will require the US and Europe to align postures, without the EU as the third wheel. cimsec.org/a-post-morte...

From me in Defense News: The recent maritime EO mandated 90-day assessment of how allies and trade policy relate to domestic shipbuilding. I have some ideas, and they start with weighing our strengths (innovation, software, tech) against our allies (huge preexisting maritime capital expenditures).

Defense News@defensenews.bsky.social · last yr.

Opinion: As officials consider the wholesale resuscitation of U.S. shipbuilding, there is a nearer-term lever worth pulling, the author of this op-ed argues.

Trying real hard to reach that one guy in N97!

Want to write for War on the Rocks?

You can find my full article on the subject here: warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...

How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks

For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in

warontherocks.com

War on the Rocks@warontherocks.bsky.social · last yr.

Why has shipping in the Red Sea failed to return to pre-conflict levels? The answer has little to do with bombs and drones, but rather insurance, demand, and geopolitics. warontherocks.com/episode/the-...

Why has shipping in the Red Sea failed to return to pre-conflict levels? The answer has little to do with bombs and drones, but rather insurance, demand, and geopolitics. warontherocks.com/episode/the-...

Some professional news! www.cna.org/our-media/pr...

CNA Names Jonathan Schroden as Chief Research Officer

CNA announced this week that Dr. Jonathan Schroden has accepted the position of Chief Research Officer

cna.org

Thank you to Kerry Anderson and War on the Rocks for having me on The Insider podcast to discuss my recent article on the Red Sea. You can read that article here: warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...

How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks

For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in

warontherocks.com

War on the Rocks@warontherocks.bsky.social · last yr.

Why has shipping in the Red Sea failed to return to pre-conflict levels? The answer has little to do with bombs and drones, but rather insurance, demand, andgeopolitics. warontherocks.com/episode/the-...