In a new paper lead by Valentina Ortiz Guzmán we focus on impactful extreme weather. We define stalling cyclones as slow-moving rain-bearing midlatitude weather systems and find they occur most frequently close to the east coast of all continents. link.growkudos.com/1f94myyu58g 🧪

Global Hotspots of Stalling Extratropical Cyclones

This paper defines a "stalling" type of weather system. It is defined as extratropical cyclone which remains near-stationary and produces extreme rainfall. This definition selects weather systems whic...

link.growkudos.com

In a new study published by @ioppublishing.bsky.social, Senior Lecturer @drjucker.bsky.social shows that estimating future rainfall increase by using a static 7% per degree warming might considerably underestimate rainfall produced by extratropical weather systems. @nsw-bnhrc.bsky.social

Temperature scaling of rainfall from weather systems

Temperature regulates the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Clouds produce rainfall by converting water vapour into liquid rain drops, thus linking surface temperatures to rainfall amounts. Te...

link.growkudos.com

In a new paper, I look at how temperature and precipitation from weather systems relate. Clausius Clapeyron (~7%/degree warming) seems often appropriate, but some places show twice as much precip increase with temperture. Snow and multi-day rainfall are different. 🧪 link.growkudos.com/1ecukqq5yio

Temperature scaling of rainfall from weather systems

Temperature regulates the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Clouds produce rainfall by converting water vapour into liquid rain drops, thus linking surface temperatures to rainfall amounts. Te...

link.growkudos.com

An interesting start to April in the tropical western Pacific. 3 cyclones spinning off very close to each other, but in both hemispheres. Beautiful dynamics, powerful weather. Maila,Vaianu and Sinlaku. viz by myself, data from GFS.

New paper by our student Chang Xu on how to detect convectively coupled atmospheric #waves in short duration datasets, where traditional methods fail due to insufficient data. Open access in Springer Nature Climate Dynamics. 🧪 doi.org/10.1007/s003...

The evaluation of convectively coupled waves in limited-length datasets - Climate Dynamics

Climate Dynamics - Organised tropical convection is strongly influenced by intraseasonal convectively coupled waves (CCWs), particularly Kelvin waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)....

doi.org

Today we've released our first album with original music. Five songs on belonging and building a space of your own, packaged in a soul-funky envelope. Spotify: open.spotify.com/album/3ryXHI... Apple Music: music.apple.com/au/album/van... Or search "Vanda Blue" on your preferred streaming platform.

Vanda Blue

open.spotify.com

CCRC’s Senior Research Fellow @drjucker.bsky.social and Prof. Julie Arblaster from Monash Uni. talk about all things stratosphere in the newest episode of the @21st century weather Totally Cooked podcast. There are rockets,volcanoes, and penguins! Hear now at 21centuryweather.org.au/engage/total...

Live stratosphere special: Totally Cooked podcast

Join the Totally Cooked team and guest experts to explore the stratosphere, ozone, and jet stream—and how they shape our weather and climate.

21centuryweather.org.au

I got to explain the stratosphere in the Totally Cooked podcast together with @juliearblaster.bsky.social and the @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social. So much fun to discuss real (and not so real) science! 🧪 21centuryweather.org.au/engage/total...

Live stratosphere special: Totally Cooked podcast

Join the Totally Cooked team and guest experts to explore the stratosphere, ozone, and jet stream—and how they shape our weather and climate.

21centuryweather.org.au

got to bring out my competitive side, running for my local surf live saving club at the New South Wales State Championships. This after repeated injuries, so doubly stoked to bring home two medals. go Coogee!

another flooding. this time N American West Coast.

New review led by @ariaan.bsky.social on climate effects of the Southern Annular Mode, the most important mode of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Read it in @natrevearthenviron.nature.com at doi.org/10.1038/s430... 🧪 #academicsky #climate #climatechange

Southern Annular Mode dynamics, projections and impacts in a changing climate - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has shifted towards its positive phase owing to ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This Review discusses the dynamics, trends and projections...

doi.org

In the latest edition of the Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, I am taking another look at this year's Sudden Stratospheric Warming. I think it had more of an impact than I thought it would back in September. viewer.joomag.com/bamos-vol-38...

BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 | Page 6

The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 Highlights include: - Another Sudden Stratospheric Warming in 2025; - 2025 ACCESS Community Workshop:...

viewer.joomag.com

Tropical Cyclone #Fina as seen by GFS forecasts. #sciviz

Look at that cloud band connecting Vietnam with Alaska and a tropical storm (#fengshen) with a high-latitude storm. #weather #sciviz from martinjucker.com/viz

Two hurricanes hugging. #Humberto #Imelda

Busy days around what might become to be known as the 2025 Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Loads of media interest, and thanks to the journalists who take their time to talk to me before writing their story. Happy to take some of mine in turn. theconversation.com/air-temperat...

Thanks to ABC TV News Channel for the chat about the stratosphere, sudden warmings, and the weather to come!

wait, is there another typhoon following #Ragasa (1) and #Neoguri (2)?

Super Typhoon #Ragasa definitely has an eye. Here seen from relatively low-resolution GFS data. But there’s also some wild dynamics happening all over the Pacific. #weather #sciviz

Busy Western Pacific right now. Cat 5 (Ragasa) and 4 (Neoguri) not far from each other. I wonder whether the strong tropical Pacific activity could be linked to the unusually weak Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex at the same time? 🤔 #sciviz #Ragasa #Neoguri

finally we’ve done it. grand final winners 2025 ⚽️🏆now I’m ready for summer sports.

anyone in need of a reminder how stupid AI is?

I propose calling the current low pressure system the Heart Low. This is what the forecast looks like for later today. 🤍 #sciart #weather

Clearer skies a prime driver of heating aapnews.aap.com.au/news/clue-to...

I’ve had some time in the plane to finish my next Garage Horns video. Sweet and short, and five times me! 😎🎷 youtu.be/5RAJNDsZKXU?...

New Intro (Garage Band version)

YouTube video by Martin Jucker

youtu.be

This was an interesting piece of work with George Driver from the AAP: debunking stuff which sounds very sophisticated, gets many things right, and is still completely wrong. Hopefully an insightful read 🧪 aapnews.aap.com.au/news/former-...

Former senator's global warming claims misrepresent physics: experts

Outgoing Queensland senator Gerard Rennick claims global warming could not occur because it goes against the laws of physics, but experts say his claims misunderstand how CO2 warms the earth.

aapnews.aap.com.au

So proud of my (now former) student Valentina Ortiz Guzman who just submitted her thesis 🥳🎉 This is not just her first PhD submission, but also my first submission as primary supervisor. So loads of firsts for everyone!

A new study by @drjucker.bsky.social and colleagues reveals climate models show strong dry biases on eastern continental coasts due to convective representation and dynamics. Caution is advised when using climate models to assess rainfall trends in these regions. Read more: doi.org/10.1002/qj.5...

Global representation of extratropical cyclone precipitation and future trends in CMIP6 models

We use a cyclone-tracking algorithm to study precipitation produced by extratropical cyclones and identify five global hotspots of extreme precipitation: the well-known Pacific and Atlantic storm tra...

doi.org

It's been a year since our study on the Hunga Tonga volcano came out (doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...), and given we're entering the period where our simulations suggested regional impacts, I thought I'd add a few thoughts: 0/5

Long-Term Climate Impacts of Large Stratospheric Water Vapor Perturbations

Abstract The amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere after the eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) was unprecedented, and it is therefore unclear what it might mean for surface c...

doi.org

New research on extratropical cyclones: zonal asymmetries in ETC precipitation, with peaks off eastern coasts. Climate models show biases in extreme ETC precipitation, linked to convective processes. Trends indicate more extreme precipitation in future scenarios. doi.org/10.1002/qj.5... 🧪 #climate

Global representation of extratropical cyclone precipitation and future trends in CMIP6 models

We use a cyclone-tracking algorithm to study precipitation produced by extratropical cyclones and identify five global hotspots of extreme precipitation: the well-known Pacific and Atlantic storm tra...

doi.org