How manny will keep denying acceleration of global warming is real if this central estimate of global temperature above pre-industrial materializes in 2027?

Zeke Hausfather@zekehausfather.com · 3d ago

I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.

Posted a chart. Got more blocks than likes. Apparently the debate is settled: the science is wrong and the correct response is to close your eyes very hard. Cognitive dissonance itches, doesn't it.

June 2026: second-warmest June on record globally. Hottest June ever for western Europe. Hottest June ocean ever measured. If your memory says "it was like this in the 80s," your brain isn't remembering. It's lying to your face, and you're tipping it.

Why should we care that Earth's Energy Imbalance has more than doubled? Because that's what drives the climate to change. It's really that simple!

Leon Simons@leonsimons.com · 3mo ago

Temperature lags behind Earth's Energy Imbalance. 2°C and 3°C markings are to show that they are at the very end of the modeled probability. As the observations based Earth's Energy Imbalance estimates are above, we shouldn't dismiss the risk of reaching temps early. bsky.app/profile/leon...

Knew and Continued

Leon Simons@leonsimons.com · 6mo ago

🐂💩📈 We are changing the climate of our planet faster than in the known history of our world. Methane reached a record high of 1946.5 ppb! That's already much higher than the peak of the mid range climate scenario SSP2-4.5, which peaks at ~1905 ppb in 2030!

Denial Feels Cozy

Prof. Eliot Jacobson@climatecasino.net · 6mo ago

Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today ~ 125,000 years! "It’s likely that global temperatures are [already] as warm as, or warmer than, at any point in the last 125,000 years and that climate change is advancing faster than many scientists predicted." www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Switched to Claude Opus & Sonnet 4.5 for project management. Game changer. The way it synthesizes complexity into clarity is unmatched. Imagine talking to your entire project baseline at once: plans, specs, requirements. And analyzing & reshaping them through dialogue.

Good eye. Notice that bold stroke of 'Arctic Blue' plunging down, clashing violently with the 'Inferno Red'? It’s not just heat; it’s tension. A masterpiece of atmospheric whiplash. But let's not call it a broken jet stream. Let's call it high-contrast art. They are just dancing colours. 🎨❄️🔥

Don't worry about the extreme deviations or the collapsing jet stream. It’s not a planetary emergency, it’s just unintended modern art. We’re not looking at the end of stability, we’re looking at a vibe. They are just dancing colours. Enjoy the show. 🎨🔥❄️ #ClimateCrisis #ArtOrDisaster

Europe has another Earth observation in orbit. ESA's Sentinel-6B, which was launched this morning, will use radar altimetry to measure the sea level rise that comes with a warming climate. @science.esa.int #climate #SeaLevel 🧪

Sentinel-6B launched to extend record of sea-level rise

The latest guardian of our oceans has taken its place in orbit. The Copernicus Sentinel-6B satellite is now circling Earth, ready to continue a decades-long mission to track the height of the planet’s...

esa.int

When sound and vision hit perfectly 🎬🎵 This one really surprised me. youtu.be/NUgx3lVVutI?...

Where The Magic Flows (First Final 2)

YouTube video by Robert Paulson

youtu.be

The ingredients for even more car soups are plentiful.

How's the climate doing? The oceans are boiling. The poles are melting. The records are burning. And the silence is deafening. #ClimateFuckery

Draft Chapter 10 of Sophie’s Planet, Venus Syndrome & Runaway Climate (mailchi.mp/caa/chapter-...) is an introduction (also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/chapter-10...). Quantitative analysis with insights on climate physics will follow.

Chapter 10. The Venus Syndrome & Runaway Climate

James Hansen

jimehansen.substack.com

Looks like our global 'keep calm and carry on' strategy is working perfectly... the oceans are definitely carrying on, right into hotter temperatures. Nothing to see here, just the planet's thermostat breaking.

The oceans are boiling in shades of red. Relax, infinite growth on a finite planet always works out fine.

We, and young people, need help from people who understand the essence of climate science. See Forest versus Trees - columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailin... or its abbreviation - mailchi.mp/caa/seeing-t... also available on my Substack - jimehansen.substack.com/p/seeing-the...

Früher hat man sich in Familien über Religion, Politik oder Geld gestritten. 2025: "DU HAST WAS FÜR EINE HEIZUNG?!?" Verwandtschaft beendet. 🔥❄️

Complex systems vs. the human brain is like sending a Shakespeare play to a toaster. It’ll light up, but no idea what’s going on.

Prof. Eliot Jacobson@climatecasino.net · last yr.

Your 'moment of doom' for July 27, 2025 ~ Feedback loop alert! "This phenomenon underscores a complex feedback loop where climate change-induced ice loss may trigger volcanic activities, which in turn, could accelerate climate change." www.sustainability-times.com/climate/this...

BREAKING Der neue Temperaturrekord für die Türkei #Tuerkiye ist offiziell: 50,5 Grad.

No better therapy than some laps of 25.378 km of fear, joy, and questionable decisions. Thanks again, Nordschleife. 🧠💥🛞 #GreenHell #TrackAddict #Racing #Motorsport #iRacing #Nordschleife

🌊 WHAT DOES +7 SIGMA MEAN? Sea Surface Temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have reached a 7-sigma anomaly. That’s not just unusual. It’s off the charts. Here's how rare 7σ is; in any system:

The Northern Hemisphere’s oceans just recorded a +7σ sea surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1951–2000 mean. Such a deviation is virtually impossible in a stable system. We're now forcing oceanic change at a pace unseen in thousands of years. #OceanWarming #ClimateCrisis #ClimateFuckery

Made a mistake and watched the news. Oh boi.

Here are the daily warming stripes for global sea-surface temperature anomalies, updated through July 17, 2025. Can you tell that global SSTs are currently 3rd warmest on record for the day?

Today’s planet-sized mood ring glows scarlet over the North Atlantic - seas running up to +9 °C hotter than the 1971-2000 memory. The ocean speaks in steam; hurricanes listen. Laugh at the metaphor now, hear the thunder later. #HotWaterWorld #Anthropocene

Will this be the last Keeling curve upate from NOAA for CO2 at Mauna Loa? June 2025: 429.61 ppm This may be a tragic moment:

Thursday at 3pm PT (special day/time) on Climate Chat: Cause of Extreme North Atlantic Warming in 2023 with @profmattengland.bsky.social. We'll also discuss AMOC & S. Ocean. #ClimateCrisis #AMOC @leonsimons.bsky.social @bikingmzstacey.bsky.social @radsci.bsky.social youtube.com/live/39T7bW7...

Cause of Extreme North Atlantic Warming in 2023 with Matthew England

In this Climate Chat episode, we interview University of New South Wales climate scientist Matthew England on his recent Nature paper "Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023...

youtube.com

Breaking News! Code Yikes! The global 2m surface temperature on July 14th set a new daily record. It was the hottest July 14th since records began in 1940 and possibly the hottest July 14th in the last 120,000 years. The climate 8-ball advises taking the under on 17.0°C. Stay tuned!