@duncandewhurst.bsky.social

In early May, the best superforecasters predicted that, by the end of the year, the longest METR 80% task horizons would reach 3-4 hours. In late May, Claude Mythos achieved that number.

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AI use is ubiquitous & leads to performance gains at the individual level that are not passed on to organizations. In a representative survey of US workers, 43.2% now use generative AI at work. Those who do use it for 1/3 of their weekly tasks & report a tripling of productivity on those tasks.

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The victorious senators having departed, Caesar suddenly opens his eyes! He sits up, and pulls back the upper part of his toga to reveal... a stab-proof vest. Marty gasps; Caesar grins and produces Marty's years-old letter, torn up and taped back together, warning him to "Beware the Ides of March"