A quick glance into the Hurdat2 dataset suggests that Rachel and Simon are about to become the first pair of named storms to come ashore on the same day in the Eastern Pacific since continuous records began in 1949. A pair did it in 2011, but one was a Tropical Depression that was never named.

By a mere 3 hours, Isaias appears to have become the latest-forming first-hurricane of any season since continuous records began in 1851. However, given how marginally the record was eclipsed, it will ultimately depend on final reanalysis in the NHC's end-of-year official assessment of the storm.

Ethan Burwell@ethanburwell.bsky.social · 5d ago

Latest NHC forecast has Isaias down to breaking the record by a mere 0-6 hours. Very possible we waited a nearly unprecedented 4 months for the first hurricane of the season, only to have it fall just hours short of the all-time record. Either way, will probably come down to post-season reanalysis.

Latest NHC forecast has Isaias down to breaking the record by a mere 0-6 hours. Very possible we waited a nearly unprecedented 4 months for the first hurricane of the season, only to have it fall just hours short of the all-time record. Either way, will probably come down to post-season reanalysis.

Ethan Burwell@ethanburwell.bsky.social · 6d ago

National Hurricane Center is predicting that Hurricane Isaias will become the "latest-forming first-hurricane" on record for any Atlantic Season dating back to at least 1851. Current forecast has it becoming a hurricane just 12-18 hours after the current record, which was set in 1905. Will be close!

National Hurricane Center is predicting that Hurricane Isaias will become the "latest-forming first-hurricane" on record for any Atlantic Season dating back to at least 1851. Current forecast has it becoming a hurricane just 12-18 hours after the current record, which was set in 1905. Will be close!

Ethan Burwell@ethanburwell.bsky.social · 6d ago

With the NHC now giving the system in the Gulf of Mexico a 90% chance of development, it appears that we could be cutting it very close to the record... need to make it past 0z October 8th (black box) in order to eclipse the current record from 1905.

@nws.noaa.gov referring to Tropical Depression #9 as "over the Gulf of America" is incorrect per the renaming Executive Order. The order explicitly only renames the coastal waters in the northern half of the Gulf - it does not rename the southern half. The 3rd pic depicts the part that was "renamed"

We are now within 36 hours of eclipsing the record for Latest-First-Hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean. Need to make it past 0z October 8th to eclipse the current record from 1905.

Pending post season reanalysis, Fay seems to have missed its shot at becoming a hurricane. Of all the 173 years with documented hurricanes, only 1905 has waited longer for its first to arrive.

"Tornadoes are a rare occurrence for New York City and Long Island" - @nytimes.com Despite common misconception, Long Island is actually one of the tornado hotspots in New York State. Nearly the same exact spot that was hit by a tornado yesterday was also struck less than five years ago.

The New York Times@nytimes.com · 2mo ago

Rare tornadoes struck New York City and Long Island on Thursday evening, as severe weather drenched parts of the Mid-Atlantic, flooded streets and subway stations, and disrupted traffic on some highways.

Really silly to see people grasping at straws against the reality of global climate change by still using examples from July 1936 (or 1976). The reality is increasingly obvious. Graphics are from slides in a presentation of mine, which use NASA/GISS GISTEMPv4 data (and their 1951-1980 baseline).

Impressive radar loop. This track was likely worse than a technical landfall.

Brian McNoldy@bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Hurricane #Lala 's northern eyewall scraped #Hawaii, but it was not technically a landfall. Impacts are still significant even without an official landfall though.

For many parts of New York State outside of the Hudson/Champlain valleys, this is the first Extreme Heat Watch since 2018.

Literally fire & ice out there right now #FrostAdvisory #HeatAdvisory #FreezeWarning #ExtremeHeatWarning #WinterStormWarning #RedFlagWarning

As a huge proponent of user-friendly graphics, I was underwhelmed with the quality of the infant choking / CPR infographics on the internet, so I made my own. It distills the American Heart Association's recommendations into a format that is, IMO, more user-friendly during an actual emergency.

As expected, I’ve seen ~questionable~ utilizations of the new SPC intensity categories on social media, but this one takes the cake so far. With several hundred likes on Facebook this one definitively depicts where EF3 and EF2 tornadoes will form 🤦‍♂️

Ethan Burwell@ethanburwell.bsky.social · 7mo ago

I've been concerned about this for weeks now. The new SPC intensity product has HUGE potential for miscommunication. Literally 3 days in, we have a perfect example: Local Media on the day of a deadly EF3 advertising **no risk** of significant tornadoes - directly amplifying the SPC's new product.

The life and death of twin cyclones in the West Pacific. A fascinating evolution and interaction.

I definitely wouldn't call yesterday's Severe Weather a "bust". Were there less tornadoes than might otherwise be expected, sure, but localized tornado probabilities were at most 15%. Damaging winds were always the bigger risk (↑60% locally) and their @nws.noaa.gov SPC forecast verified pretty well.

I've been concerned about this for weeks now. The new SPC intensity product has HUGE potential for miscommunication. Literally 3 days in, we have a perfect example: Local Media on the day of a deadly EF3 advertising **no risk** of significant tornadoes - directly amplifying the SPC's new product.

Ian@ianlivingston.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Interesting it took like 3 days for a major tornado to happen outside all the new danger squiggle areas of concern SPC added to the outlooks.

Parts of New York are on track to have their longest-continuous Winter Storm Warnings on record... again. The local National Weather Service has used Winter Storm Warnings instead of Lake Effect Snow Warnings since mid-December. Since then, parts of their region have broken this record twice now!

Roughly 50-thousand people across 11 states rang in 2026 with snow squall warnings.

Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda are just the third pair of named tropical cyclones to be colocated between Bermuda and the US east coast since 1900. Previous pairs: Hurricane Gaston & Tropical Storm Hermine in 2004; Tropical Storms Isidore and Hortense in 1984.

Preliminary analysis: Humberto intensified from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 in 42 hours, which puts it in a 5-way tie for 9th fastest TS → C5 intensification in the Atlantic. Erin did the same feat in about 30 hours last month, which is a 3-way tie for 2nd fastest.

As we approach the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, there will continue to be many recaps and takes on the storm. I want to share this video I put together in 2020 highlighting a different angle than I've ever come across elsewhere: drive.google.com/file/d/1QBOl...

As of today's 11AM update, Erin now ranks comfortably in the Top-10 Largest Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. Its tropical storm force wind field is the 8th largest on record. Its hurricane force wind field is on par with Lorenzo as the largest on record since data began in 2004.

Ethan Burwell@ethanburwell.bsky.social · last yr.

Even more wild is that Erin is currently forecast to have one of the largest hurricane-force wind fields. The latest forecast surpasses Hurricane Sandy and essentially ties it with Hurricane Teddy from 2020 as the 3rd largest hurricane-force wind field on record in the Atlantic.

Even more wild is that Erin is currently forecast to have one of the largest hurricane-force wind fields. The latest forecast surpasses Hurricane Sandy and essentially ties it with Hurricane Teddy from 2020 as the 3rd largest hurricane-force wind field on record in the Atlantic.

Ethan Burwell@ethanburwell.bsky.social · last yr.

Hurricane Erin is currently the 27th largest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record. She is forecast to become the 10th largest on record before becoming post-tropical this weekend. Size data goes back to 2004.

Hurricane Erin is currently the 27th largest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record. She is forecast to become the 10th largest on record before becoming post-tropical this weekend. Size data goes back to 2004.

Hurricane Erin’s wind field at peak intensity on Saturday compared to the other category 4 & 5 Atlantic hurricanes this decade. Although its winds have weakened, its wind field will continue to grow in size.

Three images, 21 years of forecasts 👀 March 9, 2004: My weekly "Five Day Forecast" (via TWC) I'd create by hand and distribute to my 5th grade class. March 10, 2014: An update from my first weather website. March 10, 2025: The current version of my site that I built from scratch 18 months ago.

On this day in 2018. Kingston, New York.

Ethan Burwell@ethanburwell.bsky.social · 2y ago

Seven years ago today, much of New York State set all-time February record-high temperatures. Temperatures reached 70°F from Buffalo to Long Island and peaked as high as 78°F in the NYC metro area.

Seven years ago today, much of New York State set all-time February record-high temperatures. Temperatures reached 70°F from Buffalo to Long Island and peaked as high as 78°F in the NYC metro area.