I would add the structural imbalances - the Chinese model strongly favours production over consumption and exports over imports. Yes, this also happens in market economies (e. g. Germany), but the scale and intensity really isn't the same. Hard to imagine this in a market-based, democratic regime.

Noah Barkin@noahbarkin.bsky.social · 4w ago

You can worry about CRMs, cybersecurity and cheap Chinese exports. These are not mutually exclusive. If China was a market economy, then I might agree with your argument below Martin. But that's not the case. The distortions to fair market competition are massive. And the threat to EU industry too.

Great to see the Commission is developing a key missing tool that can increase political unity and strengthen EU trade credibility. @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @aslak.bsky.social and I laid it out last year with a transatlantic trade war in mind: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...

Full Merz quotes in the Bundestag below. He is signaling that he wants to use the leverage of the European market to enforce free and fair trade. This looks like a clear signal that Germany is on board for tougher measures against China. But the details will matter

Very true - a stable deal with the US just isn't on the table because the US isn't interested, no matter how hard the 'yes' camp tries to push that narrative. The EU can keep blaming itself, we're very good at that, but it would be better to actually implement some safeguards.

Nils Redeker@nilsredeker.bsky.social · 3mo ago

The idea that rushing through the Turnberry deal without conditions would somehow deliver stability is wishful thinking. If anything, Trump’s latest threats show why the European Parliament is right to insist on review and sunset clauses. www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...

On another note, I'll be in Tokyo to discuss trade, econ security and everything EU-CPTPP. Drop me a line if you're around and would like to have a chat (or know someone who would)!

This point should be much more prominent when discussing CN investment in the EU - where does it actually add value, and in which ways? Those are empirical questions, and it makes no sense to base policy on just assuming them away. We don't live in econ 101 textbook world.

Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham.bsky.social · 4mo ago

"The subsidiaries established in Spain operate as recipients of instructions and exporters of cash, not as centres of knowledge or R&D. Without technology transfer, the supposed benefit of this investment is reduced to a minimum: some direct employment, little else."

’The US shooting itself in the foot hurt a bit less than expected‘ really doesn‘t mean that shooting oneself in the foot is a good idea - especially as the original foot-shooting plans didn‘t even last a week.

John Springford@johnspringford.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Goods imports are around a tenth of US GDP, so a tax of 15% on 10% won't have large effects on the US economy as a matter of arithmetic, leaving aside the leakage, workarounds etc. But that doesn't mean they should be increased to, say, 100%, which is what Cass's logic implies.

Zeigt sehr deutlich, wie verengt die handelspolitische Debatte ist: Die Frage sollte sein, welche Werkzeuge unsere Probleme lösen (extremer Wettbewerbsdruck aus China, Zwangsmaßnahmen, Chaos in den USA). „Welche Abkommen brauchen wir?“ ist eine Folgefrage von vielen, und nicht die dringendste.

China shock latest - this should get a lot more attention. It's even worse than the year on year data suggests as the deficit jumped by almost 20% 2024 -> 2025 already.

Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Granular Chinese customs data for Jan-Feb came out today 🤓 I spent the morning diving in to explain stunning rise in exports reported earlier in Jan Surge in shipments to all but 2 EU member states Huge rises in EV, battery, PHEV Massive Chinese surplus jump All figures are in USD vs Jan-Feb 2025

If you care about any EU policy, chances are that money is involved. Great primer on the long-term budget and what to expect in the negotiations.

Lucas Guttenberg@lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 5mo ago

You have heard a lot about the EU‘s next long-term budget a.k.a. The MFF but were never quite sure what it is and how it works? @annaheckhausen.bsky.social and I have just the right thing for you: a comprehensive guide to the MFF and the upcoming negotiations on it 👇 bst-europe.eu/investitione...

Jetzt beginnen die ersten Verfahren gegen die EU und andere wegen angeblich unfairer Handelspraktiken - Ersatz für die vom Supreme Court annullierten Zölle. Die USA sind daran interessiert, die EU weiter unter Druck zu setzen, nicht an einer Einigung.

Etienne Höra@etiennehoera.d-64.social · 5mo ago

Was kommt nach dem Zollurteil des Supreme Court auf die EU zu? Deals sind allenfalls Risikomanagement. Die Aufgaben für die EU: geoökonomisch glaubwürdig werden, sich nicht von Dritten ausspielen lassen, Abhängigkeiten abbauen. Heute in @faznet.bsky.social Weltwirtschaft: www.faz.net/pro/weltwirt...

It's almost treated as though breaking our own taboos (local content, joint ventures, investment conditionality) would already solve the problem. EU can do things that look radical when compared to the past *and still undershoot*.

Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham.bsky.social · 5mo ago

And a salient point by @etiennehoera.d-64.social at the end - it's only going to get picked apart from here. So it would have been better if it had been more ambitious before EP / council got their hands on it...

And a salient point by @etiennehoera.d-64.social at the end - it's only going to get picked apart from here. So it would have been better if it had been more ambitious before EP / council got their hands on it...

Good debate between Nils and Shahin!

Shahin Vallée@shahinvallee.bsky.social · 5mo ago

A good thread by @nilsredeker.bsky.social but I disagree with his optimistic assessment of the @ec.europa.eu IAA. A quick thread :

The Industrial Accelerator Act is out. On public procurement in strategic sectors, it tries to square the circle: keep trusted partners in and China out. A few thoughts on the Commission’s approach in the proposal and the problem of China's transnational footprint:

Industrial Accelerator Act

Industrial Accelerator Act Regulation

single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu

The Industrial Accelerator Act is out. On public procurement in strategic sectors, it tries to square the circle: keep trusted partners in and China out. A few thoughts on the Commission’s approach in the proposal and the problem of China's transnational footprint:

Industrial Accelerator Act

Industrial Accelerator Act Regulation

single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu

Nach dem Merz-Besuch in den USA noch aktueller: Trump droht Spanien, das für (völkerrechtswidrige!) Angriffe gegen Iran Militärbasen nicht zur Verfügung stellen will, mit Handelssanktionen. Es wäre fahrlässig, jetzt den Zolldeal zu ratifizieren.

Etienne Höra@etiennehoera.d-64.social · 5mo ago

Was kommt nach dem Zollurteil des Supreme Court auf die EU zu? Deals sind allenfalls Risikomanagement. Die Aufgaben für die EU: geoökonomisch glaubwürdig werden, sich nicht von Dritten ausspielen lassen, Abhängigkeiten abbauen. Heute in @faznet.bsky.social Weltwirtschaft: www.faz.net/pro/weltwirt...

This undermines all other norms in intl law too. E3 can forget accountability for smaller violations (e.g in trade) if they ignore breaches of fundamental norms. And raises rule of law doubts internally: Intl law anchors the 🇩🇪 constitution (Völkerrechtsfreundlichkeit), or used to. This is bad.

Manuel Müller@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 5mo ago

Iran has a terrible regime. Still, it is quite obvious that 🇺🇸🇮🇱 have started an illegal war of aggression. That the E3 (🇩🇪🇫🇷🇬🇧) completely ignore this in their statement today won't help to maintain global support for international law and for other victims of aggressions, such as 🇺🇦.

This undermines all other norms in intl law too. E3 can forget accountability for smaller violations (e.g in trade) if they ignore breaches of fundamental norms. And raises rule of law doubts internally: Intl law anchors the 🇩🇪 constitution (Völkerrechtsfreundlichkeit), or used to. This is bad.

Manuel Müller@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 5mo ago

Iran has a terrible regime. Still, it is quite obvious that 🇺🇸🇮🇱 have started an illegal war of aggression. That the E3 (🇩🇪🇫🇷🇬🇧) completely ignore this in their statement today won't help to maintain global support for international law and for other victims of aggressions, such as 🇺🇦.

Weitere treffende Analyse von @etiennehoera.d-64.social zu Handelsbeziehungen EU-USA & was die EU nach dem Zollurteil des Supreme Court nun tun sollte.

Etienne Höra@etiennehoera.d-64.social · 5mo ago

Was kommt nach dem Zollurteil des Supreme Court auf die EU zu? Deals sind allenfalls Risikomanagement. Die Aufgaben für die EU: geoökonomisch glaubwürdig werden, sich nicht von Dritten ausspielen lassen, Abhängigkeiten abbauen. Heute in @faznet.bsky.social Weltwirtschaft: www.faz.net/pro/weltwirt...

EP is now the backstop of the EU's strategic position. Who would have thought, just a few weeks after the MERCOSUR debacle?

Dave Keating@davekeating.substack.com · 5mo ago

🇪🇺Parliament Trade Committee Chair Bernd Lange says he'll resist the pressure coming from 🇪🇺President von der Leyen to quickly ratify her July concessions to Trump despite the Supreme Court ruling MEPs are asking why they should ratify after SC invalidated the tool of extortion Trump used to get them

Was kommt nach dem Zollurteil des Supreme Court auf die EU zu? Deals sind allenfalls Risikomanagement. Die Aufgaben für die EU: geoökonomisch glaubwürdig werden, sich nicht von Dritten ausspielen lassen, Abhängigkeiten abbauen. Heute in @faznet.bsky.social Weltwirtschaft: www.faz.net/pro/weltwirt...

Zollchaos: Was die EU jetzt tun sollte

Auf die EU kommt eine Phase der Unsicherheit zu. Sie sollte sich auf weitere Handelskonflikte mit den Amerikanern einstellen und ihre Verwundbarkeiten angehen, rät ein Europaexperte der Bertelsmann St...

faz.net

We know that new FTAs wouldn't add a lot of growth for the EU - a deeper internal market potentially would. Read @cdgeiser.bsky.social on how to make more of one of the Commission's flagship initiatives, a 28th regime for companies 👇

Claudia-Dominique Geiser@cdgeiser.bsky.social · 5mo ago

The upcoming 28th regime will likely simplify incorporation in Europe, but this alone won’t fix Europe’s scaling gap. In my new policy brief, I argue the Commission should add regulatory pilots to test rules in high-impact policy areas where reform has stalled: bst-europe.eu/de/wettbewer... 1/

Auch industriepolitisch fatal: Wärmepumpen sind eine der Branchen, in denen Deutschland auch in Zukunft global wettbewerbsfähig sein könnte. Das wird aber nicht gehen, wenn es den heimischen Markt versenkt. Wir haben letztes Jahr untersucht, was Trumps Politik für Clean Tech aus der EU bedeutet:🧵

Jan Rosenow@janrosenow.bsky.social · 5mo ago

JETZT bestätigt: Dramatischer Kurswechsel in der deutschen Wärmepolitik. Fossile Heizungen bekommen ein Comeback durch die Hintertür. Während die Wärmewende endlich skaliert, sendet die Politik ein Signal der Verunsicherung. So vertagt man strukturelle Probleme – bis zur nächsten Energiekrise. 🧵

Unabhängig von den klimapolitischen Konsequenzen ist die Entkernung des Gebäudeenergiegesetzes industriepolitisch ein großer Fehler. Etienne erklärt, warum 👇

Etienne Höra@etiennehoera.d-64.social · 5mo ago

Auch industriepolitisch fatal: Wärmepumpen sind eine der Branchen, in denen Deutschland auch in Zukunft global wettbewerbsfähig sein könnte. Das wird aber nicht gehen, wenn es den heimischen Markt versenkt. Wir haben letztes Jahr untersucht, was Trumps Politik für Clean Tech aus der EU bedeutet:🧵

Auch industriepolitisch fatal: Wärmepumpen sind eine der Branchen, in denen Deutschland auch in Zukunft global wettbewerbsfähig sein könnte. Das wird aber nicht gehen, wenn es den heimischen Markt versenkt. Wir haben letztes Jahr untersucht, was Trumps Politik für Clean Tech aus der EU bedeutet:🧵

Jan Rosenow@janrosenow.bsky.social · 5mo ago

JETZT bestätigt: Dramatischer Kurswechsel in der deutschen Wärmepolitik. Fossile Heizungen bekommen ein Comeback durch die Hintertür. Während die Wärmewende endlich skaliert, sendet die Politik ein Signal der Verunsicherung. So vertagt man strukturelle Probleme – bis zur nächsten Energiekrise. 🧵

Really worth your time if you‘re interested in how the EU should fund innovation!

Lucas Resende Carvalho@lucas-res-car.bsky.social · 5mo ago

1/Today at #COMPET, EU ministers debate the European Competitiveness Fund. As negotiations on the 2028–2034 MFF intensify, we published a new policy brief analysing the proposal and set out 7 recommendations on how to make the ECF work Authored with @annaheckhausen.bsky.social

Great stuff at such short notice. I would be surprised if this isn’t the end of the deal. The US side can’t (and won‘t) make any credible commitments, the legal case was always very shaky and this will not change by circling through all the different sections of the Trade Act.

Bernd Lange MdEP@bernd-lange.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Now official: EP work on EU-US deal is on hold until further notice! Our negotiating team just decided to put on hold @ep_trade legal implementation of Turnberry deal&postone vote foreseen for tomorrow. Clarity&legal certainty are needed before any further steps can be taken

Great stuff at such short notice. I would be surprised if this isn’t the end of the deal. The US side can’t (and won‘t) make any credible commitments, the legal case was always very shaky and this will not change by circling through all the different sections of the Trade Act.

Bernd Lange MdEP@bernd-lange.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Now official: EP work on EU-US deal is on hold until further notice! Our negotiating team just decided to put on hold @ep_trade legal implementation of Turnberry deal&postone vote foreseen for tomorrow. Clarity&legal certainty are needed before any further steps can be taken

Will (some of) the tariffs be back? Probably. Will there be more chaos, especially if several instruments are used in ways they weren't meant to be used in? No doubt about it. Doesn't detract from the fact that this is a major loss for the US tariff agenda. Being able to take a win is important.

Scott Horton@robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Where does he go next? Bloomberg charts possibly ploys Trump will use to avoid compliance with today's SCOTUS ruling.