Lucas Guttenberg
@lucasguttenberg.bsky.social
Director 🇪🇺, Bertelsmann Stiftung, Berlin Ex-BMWK, Jacques Delors Centre, ECB
If you care about any EU policy, chances are that money is involved. Great primer on the long-term budget and what to expect in the negotiations.
Lucas Guttenberg@lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 5mo agoYou have heard a lot about the EU‘s next long-term budget a.k.a. The MFF but were never quite sure what it is and how it works? @annaheckhausen.bsky.social and I have just the right thing for you: a comprehensive guide to the MFF and the upcoming negotiations on it 👇 bst-europe.eu/investitione...
You have heard a lot about the EU‘s next long-term budget a.k.a. The MFF but were never quite sure what it is and how it works? @annaheckhausen.bsky.social and I have just the right thing for you: a comprehensive guide to the MFF and the upcoming negotiations on it 👇 bst-europe.eu/investitione...
The Devil is in the Budget – A Comprehensive Guide to the MFF Negotiations
The EU’s next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) will be negotiated under intense pressure: a tight budget, expanding demands for spending and growing disagreement over the Union’s priorities. This...
bst-europe.eu
The Industrial Accelerator Act is out. On public procurement in strategic sectors, it tries to square the circle: keep trusted partners in and China out. A few thoughts on the Commission’s approach in the proposal and the problem of China's transnational footprint:
Industrial Accelerator Act
Industrial Accelerator Act Regulation
single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu
After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act. This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start. Some quick thoughts:
What is the European Competitiveness Fund and how can it be improved so that it actually works? If you've had these questions on your mind for a long time but never dared to ask: Lucas and Anna have you covered with their new paper 👇
Lucas Resende Carvalho@lucas-res-car.bsky.social · 5mo ago1/Today at #COMPET, EU ministers debate the European Competitiveness Fund. As negotiations on the 2028–2034 MFF intensify, we published a new policy brief analysing the proposal and set out 7 recommendations on how to make the ECF work Authored with @annaheckhausen.bsky.social
Unabhängig von den klimapolitischen Konsequenzen ist die Entkernung des Gebäudeenergiegesetzes industriepolitisch ein großer Fehler. Etienne erklärt, warum 👇
Etienne Höra@etiennehoera.d-64.social · 5mo agoAuch industriepolitisch fatal: Wärmepumpen sind eine der Branchen, in denen Deutschland auch in Zukunft global wettbewerbsfähig sein könnte. Das wird aber nicht gehen, wenn es den heimischen Markt versenkt. Wir haben letztes Jahr untersucht, was Trumps Politik für Clean Tech aus der EU bedeutet:🧵
That was always the risk in going for the solution based on EU debt rather than using the Russian assets. The assets would have required QMV, the debt needs unanimity regardless of the fact that it would be carried out by enhanced cooperation. France et al knew that risk and went for it anyway.
Henry Foy@henryjfoy.ft.com · 6mo ago💥 Hungary has blocked an already-agreed €90bn EU loan for Ukraine aimed at stabilising the war-torn country’s finances, just days before the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion by @paolatamma.bsky.social & @alicemhancock.bsky.social as.ft.com/r/58172ba2-b...
New piece with former fellow ECB hand @thinicemacro.bsky.social. At the Munich Security Conference, the ECB made its geopolitical move, opening repo lines to central banks globally. It was probably the most consequential policy announcement at the conference. 1/ www.cer.eu/insights/ecb...
The ECB's bid to strengthen the euro's global role
As dollar dominance wobbles, Europe should boost the euro’s reach, led by bolder liquidity lines from the ECB.
cer.eu
Nothing stops the European Council from appointing Lagarde‘s successor at the March 2027 European Council even of she serves out her term. So I find this line of thinking a bit weird.
Financial Times@financialtimes.com · 6mo agoLagarde to leave ECB before the end of 8-year term ft.trib.al/88DQOgH
Another middle power moment, but not groundbreaking: EU-CPTPP have a lot in common and there's scope for closer cooperation. Fundamental limitations are still there, and it certainly won't be an 'anti-Trump trade alliance'. Why and what still can be done 🧵
POLITICO Europe@politico.eu · 6mo agoEXCLUSIVE: Canadian PM Mark Carney is spearheading discussions between the EU and a major Indo-Pacific trade bloc after calling on middle powers to join forces. The aim is to short-circuit Donald Trump’s tariffs. 🔗 politi.co/4ayYnTn
Good points by @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social: The Council can take single market decisions by qualified majority. If such a majority exists, why give the minority an opt-out? And if it doesn't, is it really worth deepening the "single" market when so many member states are not on board?
Lucas Guttenberg@lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 6mo agoThe idea to unblock the Single Market deepening agenda with a multi-speed approach a.k.a. Enhanced Cooperation seems extremely weird to me both in principle and politically especially if the goal is "One Market". Here is why:
In the discussion on using Enhanced Cooperation for single market deepening seem to forget that the EU treaties put a clear limit on Enhanced Cooperation - that it shall not undermine the single market or the economic cohesion of the EU:
Lucas Guttenberg@lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 6mo agoThe idea to unblock the Single Market deepening agenda with a multi-speed approach a.k.a. Enhanced Cooperation seems extremely weird to me both in principle and politically especially if the goal is "One Market". Here is why:
Exactly. Momentum is good, but Enhanced Cooperation and “One Market” don’t go together. QMV remains the way forward. Breaking deadlock in single market files requires everyone – leaders to officials – to abandon national regimes and commit to true European harmonisation. Still a way to go.
Lucas Guttenberg@lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 6mo agoThe idea to unblock the Single Market deepening agenda with a multi-speed approach a.k.a. Enhanced Cooperation seems extremely weird to me both in principle and politically especially if the goal is "One Market". Here is why:
Spot on - good that there's political momentum now, but there just isn't a ton of issues where smaller states drag their feet (and many where Germany would need to move).
Lucas Guttenberg@lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 6mo agoThe idea to unblock the Single Market deepening agenda with a multi-speed approach a.k.a. Enhanced Cooperation seems extremely weird to me both in principle and politically especially if the goal is "One Market". Here is why:
The idea to unblock the Single Market deepening agenda with a multi-speed approach a.k.a. Enhanced Cooperation seems extremely weird to me both in principle and politically especially if the goal is "One Market". Here is why:
After years of resistance, leaders finally say EU should go at different speeds
Summit in Belgian castle sees governments acknowledge Europe urgently needs to change the way it functions if it’s not going to be left behind.
politico.eu
Simplification will continue until morale improves
Lucas Guttenberg@lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 6mo agoWhen EU leaders meet tomorrow to discuss the EU’s competitiveness agenda, they should stop chasing ghosts and confront the real problem Europe‘s economy is facing. Our latest for @politico.eu with @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 👇
When EU leaders meet tomorrow to discuss the EU’s competitiveness agenda, they should stop chasing ghosts and confront the real problem Europe‘s economy is facing. Our latest for @politico.eu with @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 👇
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
politico.eu
Worth reading. We want long lasting competitiveness and wealth creation. We can get both, being truth to our goals and principles.
POLITICO Europe@politico.eu · 6mo agoOPINION: As the current consensus goes, Europe has smothered itself in unnecessary regulation, and growth will return once red tape is cut. This agenda is bound to disappoint.
OPINION: As the current consensus goes, Europe has smothered itself in unnecessary regulation, and growth will return once red tape is cut. This agenda is bound to disappoint.
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
politico.eu
Very good. I think the word for this is punchy. Also trenchant.
Lucas Guttenberg@lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 6mo agoWhen EU leaders meet tomorrow to discuss the EU’s competitiveness agenda, they should stop chasing ghosts and confront the real problem Europe‘s economy is facing. Our latest for @politico.eu with @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 👇
Bang on op-ed.
Lucas Guttenberg@lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 6mo agoWhen EU leaders meet tomorrow to discuss the EU’s competitiveness agenda, they should stop chasing ghosts and confront the real problem Europe‘s economy is facing. Our latest for @politico.eu with @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 👇
Tomorrow’s summit is a chance for EU leaders to stop chasing the wrong fixes — and finally sketch a response that matches the scale of Europe’s economic challenge. Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like. www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
politico.eu
When EU leaders meet tomorrow to discuss the EU’s competitiveness agenda, they should stop chasing ghosts and confront the real problem Europe‘s economy is facing. Our latest for @politico.eu with @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 👇
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
politico.eu
Brutal chart from @noahbarkin.bsky.social and Gregor Williams. German exports to China grew for nearly two decades - and are now in free fall.
Das spannende an diesem Interview gerade für Deutschland ist nicht die Position zu europäischen Schulden - das sagt Macron seit Jahren so. Viel wichtiger ist die große Klarheit, mit der Macron die Bedrohung der europäischen Wirtschaft und insbesondere der Industrie durch China anspricht.
Emmanuel Macron: „Wenn wir nichts tun, ist Europa in fünf Jahren weggefegt“
Frankreichs Präsident im Interview über das nötige Aufwachen Europas, gemeinsame Schulden sowie sein Verhältnis zu Putin, Trump und Merz.
sueddeutsche.de
EU ambassadors have reached a deal on the legal texts to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan funded by joint debt. €30 billion will be allocated for financial support, and €60 billion for military aid. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic will be exempt from the loan.
I don't fully understand why we are discussing the merger of Commission and EuCo president now. It was unbearable with Charles Michel, but that seems to have been an idiosyncratic issue. It works well with Costa. VDL is Europe's number to call. Costa keeps EuCo working. What problem are we solving?
Big weeks for EU trade – MERCOSUR signed but in a limbo, India concluded, deepening with Mexico waiting to be signed, more in the pipeline. It’s also a good moment to look at the bigger picture: More trade agreements are worth doing in a power-based world, but they’re no game changer for EU growth.🧵
“Coalitions of the willing” are back in vogue. Internationally, that makes sense. But in the EU context, I don’t buy the hype. In fact, it leads to the wrong conclusions and risks weakening the one institutional framework that actually gives Europe collective power in a world without rules. Thread:
