Foolish Baseball

@foolishbb.bsky.social

Bryan Abreu is in an interesting spot. Contract year. Consistently been one of the best relievers, but only 16 career saves. Hader might not be ready Opening Day. He's less than a year away from being the #1 closer on the free agent market, without having consistently closed.

Hitters really do have a lot of control over their batted ball distribution. Max Muncy hit just one (1) opposite field groundball in 2025. When you're as committed to pulling the ball in the air as he is, the reverse rarely happens.

These projections are my favorite part of the HOF tracking process. Really helps demystify the differences between public & private voters, as well as the effect of year-over-year net gains. Andruw Jones with a 90% chance of reaching the threshold is noteworthy here.

Jason Sardell@sardell.bsky.social · 7mo ago

With 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that we'll see two new members of the Baseball Hall of Fame next Tuesday. But it's possible Andruw Jones just misses out. My latest projections

Table listing Baseball Hall of Fame projections showing Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5%
 Carlos Beltrán	83%	79% - 87%	>99.9%	0%
 Andruw Jones	77%	74% - 81%	90%	0%
 Chase Utley	60%	56% - 65%	0%	0%
 Félix Hernández	51%	46% - 56%	0%	0%
 Andy Pettitte	51%	46% - 55%	0%	0%
 Álex Rodríguez	42%	40% - 46%	0%	0%
 Manny Ramírez	39%	37% - 42%	0%	0%
 Bobby Abreu	32%	29% - 36%	0%	0%
 Cole Hamels	26%	22% - 31%	0%	0%
 Jimmy Rollins	23%	21% - 27%	0%	0%
 Dustin Pedroia	23%	20% - 27%	0%	0%
 Mark Buehrle	20%	17% - 24%	0%	0%
 Omar Vizquel	17%	15% - 19%	0%	0%
 David Wright	16%	14% - 20%	0%	0%
 Francisco Rodríguez	14%	12% - 17%	0%	0%
 Torii Hunter	6%	4% - 8%	0%	30%
 Ryan Braun	2%	1% - 6%	0%	96%
 Edwin Encarnación	1%	0.5% - 5%	0%	98%
 Nick Markakis	1%	0.2% - 6%	0%	99%
 Shin-Soo Choo	1%	0.2% - 4%	0%	99%
 Hunter Pence	1%	0.2% - 4%	0%	99%

I wonder if there will ever be any real pushback on legalized sports betting, or if there’s just too much wealth to be extracted from the lower and middle classes for a Come to Jesus moment to occur. You’d expect some form of dissent from social conservatives, but I don’t see a temperance movement.

The Athletic@theathletic.com · last yr.

We asked more than 130 MLB players: Has legalized sports betting changed how fans treat you or your teammates? The result was a landslide. “People suck, dude.” 🔗: http://dlvr.it/TLJK2n

Until 1913, baserunners were allowed to run in a straight line across the diamond from 1st to 3rd on a single, provided they could avoid the pitcher trying to tackle them. This was known as the “gambler’s shortcut.”