#Iran doorstep issues very clear and personal for voters; again, #Ukraine impact is more abstract.

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social · 5h ago

Preliminary primary election analysis: #Israel issue of high salience for some voters, #Ukraine salience extremely soft.

Preliminary primary election analysis: #Israel issue of high salience for some voters, #Ukraine salience extremely soft.

After four years where both sides sent mixed signals about energy targeting, both are now involved in the "demolition derby" approach. www.politico.eu/article/ukra...

Ukraine energy chief says infrastructure attacks will shape war’s outcome

Ukraine hopes its campaign to destroy Russia’s refineries will end the war this fall, but is preparing for energy attacks this winter, Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal told POLITICO.

politico.eu

Lots of laughs in the West when warehouses went up but we're vulnerable to strikes from VEOs and state actors in our logistical hubs. Would Amazon or Walmart start investing in defending their logistics from interference?

Please enjoy this home security footage of an oddly human-like bear raiding a fridge in Lake Tahoe www.wsj.com/us-news/blac...

Check out recent commentary pieces in the #OrbisJournal for an inside look at managing the nuclear world order in a time where technological innovation defines conflict and, consequently, escalation. buff.ly/4bsajsU

This also speaks to commodities traders having Ali Baba caves of supplies … follow the use of tankers as floating storage … www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The Global Oil Cushion Isn’t Really Hitting ‘Tank Bottoms’

The energy industry’s latest panic is that it’s about to hit “tank bottoms” — the minimum amount of crude in storage required to keep the conveyor belt that goes from oilfields to refineries humming. ...

bloomberg.com

Something that the war colleges educate students for, and to run war games to exercise and test concepts.

OSINT Mirror Feed@osint-mirrors.bsky.social · 2d ago

Source: @osinttechnical on X CENTCOM circulated an email to a broad group of military analysts last week requesting: “We are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran,” -CNN

Human beings still needed to exercise analytical judgement ... www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

Trusted human consultants still matter, even in an age of AI. Had to deal with a query from someone who saw social media posts that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had resigned. Immediately…...

Trusted human consultants still matter, even in an age of AI. Had to deal with a query from someone who saw social media posts that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had resigned. Immediately ...

linkedin.com

A link to the 2014 revisiting seven years after the original piece: nationalinterest.org/feature/welc...

Welcome to the World Without the West

It’s become standard practice for U.S. officials to describe the future of Sino-American ties as the central drama of international politics. In early November, just ahead of President Obama’s summit ...

nationalinterest.org

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social · 3d ago

In 2007, The National Interest published an article about an emerging "world without the West." Twenty years later, bypassing Euro-Atlantic hubs is proving to be a workable strategy. www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

In 2007, The National Interest published an article about an emerging "world without the West." Twenty years later, bypassing Euro-Atlantic hubs is proving to be a workable strategy. www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

#multialignment | Nikolas Gvosdev

This was a key observation ... and complemented by another piece, a 2007 article in The National Interest by Steven Weber, Naazneen Barma, and Ely Ratner on the emerging "world without the West" which...

linkedin.com

Ukraine's strikes to cause disruption, Russia to focus on interdiction ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

A weak German economy, a weaker chancellor - Asia Times | South Shore Consulting

For the Asia Times Global Risk-Reward Monitor, James Davis breaks down the "new phase" of the air war between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian drone strikes are designed to create disruptions in the Russ...

linkedin.com

James Davis has been warning of growing calls for Russia to signal to NATO risks for escalation. Comment: Not clear whether the Russian cruise missile that impacted in Poland was a deliberate warning shot, or was diverted off course by Ukrainian countermeasures.

At the other site, @lkrozen.bsky.social: “There was some discussion about trying to conclude by the time financial markets open Monday.” x.com/lrozen/statu...

Laura Rozen (@lrozen) on X

“There was some discussion about trying to conclude by the time financial markets open Monday.”

x.com

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social · 5d ago

At the other site, @kellygrieco.bsky.social: Striking harder is not a strategy. The problem with U.S. strategy is not the amount of damage it has inflicted, but the lack of a credible theory of victory linking military damage to changes in Iranian behavior. x.com/ka_grieco/st...

At the other site, @kellygrieco.bsky.social: Striking harder is not a strategy. The problem with U.S. strategy is not the amount of damage it has inflicted, but the lack of a credible theory of victory linking military damage to changes in Iranian behavior. x.com/ka_grieco/st...

Kelly Grieco (@ka_grieco) on X

Striking harder is not a strategy. The problem with U.S. strategy is not the amount of damage it has inflicted, but the lack of a credible theory of victory linking military damage to changes in Irani...

x.com

How #fracturedglobalization impacts #globalpublicgoods, per Diego Capelli: www.linkedin.com/posts/diego-...

#geopolitics #geoeconomics #globalgovernance #globaleconomy #politicaleconomy #climatepolicy #foreignpolicy | Diego Capelli

Geopolitical fragmentation is not challenging all global public goods equally Global public goods are "institutions, mechanisms, or outcomes whose benefits extend across multiple countries, populatio...

linkedin.com

This @bneintellinews analysis on how conflicts and conflict geography are expanding and meeting … www.intellinews.com/one-war-thre...

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2w ago

Starting to move more in @profpaulpoast.bsky.social's direction here, with the first incident that indicates different conflicts may be unifying. Ukraine has struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea and President Zelensky wants to present to President Trump irrefutable evidence ... 1/

This echoes what the “party of war” in the Kremlin has been saying … and is reflected in muted but growing criticism of Putin’s faith that Trump can deliver. x.com/lrozen/statu...

Laura Rozen (@lrozen) on X

“Iranian decisionmaking is increasingly shaped by an intense pessimism about what diplomacy with the U.S. can achieve. Most senior figures, whether pragmatists or hardliners, simply do not believe a d...

x.com

Reinforcing the point that tactical excellence does not equate to strategic success. x.com/sinatoossi/s...

Important #FPA concepts in this #ShiftingGrounds podcast …

Foreign Policy Research Institute@fpri.bsky.social · last wk.

"The president and how he views the world is particularly important: If he adopts the lens of being the leader of the free world, or America First, that then informs all of his choices in terms of who he appoints" (13:20). Tune in to the full episode of #ShiftingGround.

Adam N. Stulberg explains how the evolving nature of war leads to new risks of nuclear escalation between Ukraine and Russia. Though previous Russian nuclear threats were understood as unfounded, Ukraine's drone strikes into Russian territory may change its calculus. #OrbisJournal

Reading Russia’s Nuclear Threats

Analyze the recent nuclear rhetoric from Russia and its potential impact on Western responses in the context of Ukraine's conflict.

buff.ly

Key: bill provides authorities but gives discretion to #POTUS how to use. Could see case where India accommodates U.S. on another #natsec issue and gets the waiver.

Peter Baker@peterbakernyt.bsky.social · last wk.

Sanctions legislation that moved forward in the Senate this week goes beyond enacting new financial restrictions on Russia and Iran. It also gives Trump broad new powers to impose tariffs on imports from some of the world’s largest economies. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/29/u...

My sense Netanyahu uninterested in connecting Iran and Ukraine conflicts as he wants to preserve Israel’s Russia hedge against U.S. unreliability …

Steady spike since 2022 and impact of Russian invasion of Ukraine on commodities … #trilemma pressures at work …

Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social · last wk.

This is quite the chart from the Associated Press.

🆕 Reading Russia's Nuclear Threats by Adam N. Stulberg. Check out the piece on the #OrbisJournal website.

Reading Russia’s Nuclear Threats

Analyze the recent nuclear rhetoric from Russia and its potential impact on Western responses in the context of Ukraine's conflict.

buff.ly

Reading through Kazakhstan's President Tokayev's remarks in Omsk seems to be less of a break with Moscow than advertised ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

We think it is very important to carefully review and assess the comments that the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, delivered in Omsk to Russian president Vladimir Putin at their… | Sou...

We think it is very important to carefully review and assess the comments that the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, delivered in Omsk to Russian president Vladimir Putin at their summit...

linkedin.com

Advice from Justine Rosenthal, 2007: "Laying low while focusing our efforts on military and industrial R & D can bolster our position; technological development fostered the American moment, increasing our military capabilities and spurring economic growth." ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/ni/ni92_...

I stand by the pessimistic assessments I gave about the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022: "I’m a pessimist ... You’re going to see in Eastern Europe — Russia and Ukraine both — face massive challenges in the future. 1/

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2w ago

With reports Zelensky may come to DC next week, he'd arrive when other trends are deteriorating, per reporting in Asia Times... summary here: www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

And on top of that, reading this about how nuclear taboos starting to unravel ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

The age of rearmament - Asia Times | South Shore Consulting

Still not worried enough? This week's #GRRM (Global Risk-Reward Monitor) from Asia Times has both Scott Foster and James Davis describing how nuclear taboos are weakening. Scott's report is on the sh...

linkedin.com

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2w ago

Starting to move more in @profpaulpoast.bsky.social's direction here, with the first incident that indicates different conflicts may be unifying. Ukraine has struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea and President Zelensky wants to present to President Trump irrefutable evidence ... 1/