Aroy

@fusiona.bsky.social

Paradigm Shock Podcast person. Finance and Tech guy, Quality of Money Monetary Theory, Global macro, digital assets and financial infrastructure, sometimes politics, music, sports - especially soccer. Fair weather Manchester United fan

This is absolutely correct from the great @gelliottmorris.com and something I’ve been saying, the importance of broad framing when it comes to prediction. The entire narrative framing has been on potential polling error in one direction, no consideration it can go in either direction

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 3d ago

The underestimation of Dems last night was larger than any pro-Republican error in the polls over the last decade with the exception of 2020. And I don't see major media orgs fundamentally reshaping their columnist slates or editorial priorities to address their "blind spot," as they did after 2024.

Breaking news! I’m back to posting AND my latest prediction “model” is out! My median scenario senate prediction is a D +7 seat pickup for a total of 53 seats. My most optimistic scenario is 61 seats! Pessimistic scenario is 49 seats. The 61 seat scenario is based on the polling error being