Everything you need to know about last night with Mary Radcliffe and @baseballot.bsky.social!

VIDEO: El-Sayed Won. The Polls Did Not.

We break down Michigan’s polling miss and the other consequential results from Tuesday night.

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Yikes!

The Democrats have been debating which states should go first in the presidential primary, so @baseballot.bsky.social, Mary Radcliffe and I drafted our ideal lineups. Tell us who drafted the better team!

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot.bsky.social · 7d ago

Any day I can argue one state's superiority over another with @galendruke.bsky.social and Mary Radcliffe is a good day. www.gdpolitics.com/p/we-drafted...

OPINION TODAY featured podcast — Democrats Can't Fool The Working Class: @galendruke.bsky.social and @joan-c-williams.bsky.social discuss the Graham Platner saga and why working class values matter more than working class aesthetics. (GD POLITICS) opiniontoday.substack.com/i/208810827/...

"According to polling... podcast host is one of the least desirable attributes that a candidate to have." @geoffreyskelley.com and I talked about the wild world of Michigan Senate primary polling and the brand new @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social 2026 midterm forecast model.

The UK is on the verge of elevating its 7th prime minister in 10 years. Marine Le Pen — now cleared to run for president — is the current front-runner against every potential opponent in France. Today @lennybronner.com and I discuss the reasons for Europe's major political upheaval.

"They basically just picked the town drunk in Maine and made him run for Senate." Had a lively chat with Lakshya Jain and @zacharydonnini.bsky.social on the latest GD POLITICS pod!

Reality check: in every Senate battleground this cycle except for Maine, the majority of the electorate thinks the Democratic Party is too extreme. In none of the battlegrounds does a majority think the Republican Party is too extreme.

Dems leading by just 2 pts in the Maine Senate race... a declining lead for Dems in generic ballot polls... We answered some questions from *concerned* Dems on the latest pod w/ Mary Radcliffe and @baseballot.bsky.social. Plus, SCOTUS, prediction markets & poll methodology 🤓

VIDEO: Late Ballots, Iran Polling, And A Maine Toss-Up

The Supreme Court weighs in on mail ballots, Trump’s Iran deal meets public opinion and Maine’s Senate race looks like a toss-up.

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Why hasn't right-wing populism taken off in Ireland? @hlinehan.bsky.social and I discussed that question and much more in our Inside Elections x GD POLITICS crossover podcast at the Irish Times studio in Dublin!

Why Right-Wing Populism Hasn’t Taken Off In Ireland

A crossover with The Irish Times’ Hugh Linehan on Ireland’s missing far right, America’s political dysfunction, and the ties between the two countries.

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NEW POD: The weaker Trump gets nationally, the more GOP lawmakers will be incentivized to break with him, and the more Trump will want to enforce party loyalty. Call him a lame duck with teeth. @rubashkin.bsky.social and I talked about this and much more on the latest pod!

NEW POD: @baseballot.bsky.social, Mary Radcliffe, and I talk about the split screen, where on one side Trump's approval numbers are falling apart and on the other side GOP primary voter loyalty remains very much in tact. www.gdpolitics.com/p/trump-hits...

Trump Hits A New Low

Trump’s approval rating sinks, Bill Cassidy loses his primary, and the GOP’s loyalty tests keep coming.

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Yikes

LIVE SHOW ALERT: In which we debut the brand new game “True or False: Crosstab Diving Edition” For example, non-college-educated men are more likely to identify as bisexual than college-educated women. True or false? Answer below. Better yet, watch the show!👇

🚨 NEW POD 🚨 It's one of the topics I get asked about most frequently & we're finally dedicating a full episode. Everything you need to know about... *~prediction markets!~* Jacob Studwell digs into how they work, arguments for & against, regulation & what their future holds.👇

How Prediction Markets Made The World A Casino

The messy world of betting on the future is getting bigger and harder to regulate.

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May 13 at the Comedy Cellar! Tix here to see Nate Silver @galendruke.bsky.social et moi! shop.comedycellar.com/product/galen/

And stick around for my rankings of which Senate seats are most/least likely to flip this fall!

Galen Druke@galendruke.bsky.social · 3mo ago

NEW POD: The Senate Map Has A Maine Character @sahilkapur.bsky.social joined me to talk about what the truncated Maine primary tells us about the Democratic Party right now: the “Biden trauma tax,” the value of “authenticity,” and whether Democrats are experiencing their own Tea Party moment.

NEW POD: The Senate Map Has A Maine Character @sahilkapur.bsky.social joined me to talk about what the truncated Maine primary tells us about the Democratic Party right now: the “Biden trauma tax,” the value of “authenticity,” and whether Democrats are experiencing their own Tea Party moment.

The Senate Map Has A Maine Character

Maine’s Senate primary is over before it really began. What does that tell us about Democratic voters?

gdpolitics.com

NEW POD: One year ago the Liberals in Canada won an election they seemed certain to lose just months prior. Since then, PM Mark Carney has only grown in popularity and power. @ericgrenier.bsky.social, @338canada.bsky.social and I talked about how the past year has unfolded.

A Year Of Carney In The Age Of Trump

One year after the Liberals won Canada’s election, Prime Minister Mark Carney is more popular than ever and now governs with a majority.

gdpolitics.com

Was a lot of fun to join @galendruke.bsky.social with my pod partner @338canada.bsky.social on GD Politics to discuss the state of Canadian public opinion one year after the last election and (still) in the shadow of Donald Trump: www.gdpolitics.com/p/a-year-of-...

A Year Of Carney In The Age Of Trump

One year after the Liberals won Canada’s election, Prime Minister Mark Carney is more popular than ever and now governs with a majority.

gdpolitics.com

LIVE SHOW ALERT: @claremalone.bsky.social, Nate Silver and I are back at the Comedy Cellar on May 13 for rowdy political analysis, games & audience questions. Grab a ticket, grab a beer, and come join us!

Live Show At The Comedy Cellar In NYC

Join Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and Galen Druke on May 13

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NEW POD: Virginia is deciding whether to gerrymander its congressional map today, potentially giving Dems 10 seats & Reps just one. @baseballot.bsky.social & I talked about that election, the gerrymandering landscape & how elex law could change before the midterms.

The Gerrymandering Fight Comes To Virginia And Florida

Plus, the election laws still in flux ahead of the 2026 midterms.

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NEW POD: What The Iran War Did To The Economy w/ @marthagimbel.bsky.social. When we last checked in on the economy, on Feb 23, we were talking about a soft landing and a well-balanced macroeconomy. Five days later, we went to war with Iran. Here's how things have changed...

What The Iran War Did To The Economy

In February, the economy looked well balanced. Since then, inflation has spiked.

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NEW POD: Trump Declares Victory. Voters Send A Different Message. I spoke w/ Mary Radcliffe & @lennybronner.com about Trump’s ceasefire, how voters are liable to react, & how they’ve already reacted in WI and GA elections. We also previewed the election in Hungary this Sunday.

VIDEO: Trump Declares Victory. Voters Send A Different Message.

The White House declared victory after agreeing to a fragile ceasefire with Iran. Voters are unlikely to see it that way, and they sent Republicans a warning sign in Tuesday’s elections.

gdpolitics.com

NEW POD: How low is Trump's approval rating floor? Nate Silver and I talked about that and much more today's pod. He might have even spilled when the midterm forecast is launching 🤓

VIDEO: How Low Is Trump's Approval Rating Floor?

Nate Silver and I discuss how low Trump's approval could fall, what that means for the midterms, and much more.

gdpolitics.com

Hello all! I did a podcast with the fantastic @galendruke.bsky.social on the state of Japanese politics these days. He was a great interviewer---super prepared, interesting questions---so any kudos go to him. Hopefully it'll be useful to some of my friends as well. www.gdpolitics.com/p/can-a-popu...

Can A Popular Prime Minister Fix What Ails Japan?

Japan's prime minister Sanae Takaichi has a sky-high approval rating. Can she translate that into tangible results?

gdpolitics.com

Calling my lawyer lol

I'm back from Japan and have an episode all about Japanese politics in the GD POLITICS feed today! I talked to @kmcelwain.bsky.social about PM Sanae Takaichi's mandate and the challenges that lie ahead: rising costs, constitutional amendments, immigration policy & more.

I am back from vacation/a news blackout and Mary Radcliffe and @baseballot.bsky.social had me guess everything that happened while I was gone! I got a 70 percent 🤷 www.gdpolitics.com/p/everything...

Everything That Happened In The Last Two Weeks

Nathaniel Rakich and Mary Radcliffe make me guess what happened in the news while I was away.

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NEW POD: What is the endgame in Iran? I talked to former Assistant Secretary of Defense Mara Karlin about what the apparent strategy is in Iran, conflicting messages from the White House aside. We also talked about the likeliest outcome. www.gdpolitics.com/p/what-is-th...

What Is The Endgame In Iran?

The White House has sent mixed messages about what it's doing in Iran. A defense strategist explains the government's apparent goals and how it's likely to end.

gdpolitics.com