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Gregory Brew

@gbrew24.bsky.social

Analyst EurasiaGroup. Iran, energy. Wrote some books.

189 Posts5027 Follower718 Folgt
Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social · 4mo ago

I'm going to do more to post here, y'all, and not just the other place. I am constrained somewhat by limited mental ability--in my advanced age, it's really only feasible for me to be glued to one platform at a time. But I shall do my best.

Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social · 11mo ago

"Witkoff isn’t consistently engaged. He will pop in for a visit to Vladimir Putin, say a bunch of stuff, not tell anyone what really happened and then just fuck off to his life again." However you feel about the sourcing, these are some wild quotes. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

‘His inexperience shines through’: Steve Witkoff struggles to manage Russia as Trump peace envoy

Witkoff’s solo approach has led to repeated miscues with Russia, leaving Trump’s pledge to quickly end the war between Russia and Ukraine adrift.

politico.com

Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Per Reuters, E3 will pull the SnapBack trigger tomorrow--but they're holding out hope for diplomatic progress during the 30-day implementation period. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Europeans likely to initiate UN sanctions process on Iran on Thursday, sources say

Britain, France and Germany are likely to begin the process of reimposing U.N. sanctions on Iran on Thursday, but hope Tehran will provide commitments over its nuclear programme within 30 days that will convince them to defer concrete action, four diplomats said.

reuters.com

Chirag Lala@cthelala.bsky.social · 12mo ago

An idea that needs a lot more validation relative to its popularity is China "replacing" real estate investment with higher ROI investment. I buy that they tried. We all see the latter's progress in many sectors. I don't buy that "replacement" worked or is even conceptually appropriate framing.

Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social · last yr.

A sign of how sharply the discourse on Gaza has shifted: Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.

Bild
Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social · last yr.

The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior. With implications for US-China. My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...

Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work

Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.

foreignpolicy.com

Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social · last yr.

The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior. With implications for US-China. My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...

Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work

Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.

foreignpolicy.com

Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social · last yr.

The only way the military option made sense was as a comprehensive strike-- you have to destroy *everything* and quickly, to reduce proliferation risk. Moreover, the military option is not a military solution. The US has bought time. But they still need to negotiate.

Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social · last yr.

For Vance to immediately confirm in public that the HEU stockpile was not destroyed, despite the US dropping 13 MOPs, suggests the rationale for using force wasn't rock solid. Also underscores how risky this was. Iran learned that even massive ordinance is likely not enough.

Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social · last yr.

Trump was trying to get a meeting with the Iranians through Turkey. He even contemplated going himself. But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.

Bild
Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social · last yr.

Israeli officials tell J-Post that there are no signs of regime collapse in Iran. Israel's top general acknowledges that the war will be long and the most complicated in Israel's history. Missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv and Haifa.

Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social · last yr.

These docs may end up being insubstantial, but Iran is likely to use them to draw attention away from its own nuclear obfuscations, in the context of a likely IAEA censure resolution, while also trying to drive a larger wedge between Arab states and Israel. english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-...

Sensitive Israeli documents obtained by Iran should be unveiled soon, minister says

Sensitive Israeli documents obtained by Tehran should be unveiled soon, Minister of Intelligence Esmail Khatib told state TV on Sunday, describing them as

english.alarabiya.net