🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝗶𝗷𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟭: 𝗖𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗢𝗶𝗹 The unprecedented and acute pullback in Chinese crude imports was the largest unexpected oil market swing to counterbalance the Hormuz supply shock—so how’d they pull it off? www.commoditycontext.com/p/the-beijin...

The Beijing Swing, Part 1: Crude Oil

The unprecedented pullback in Chinese crude oil imports was the largest unexpected oil market swing to counterbalance history’s greatest supply shock in the Strait of Hormuz—so how’d they pull it off?

commoditycontext.com

I'm pretty confident that Brent crude prices will be between $65 and $110 next week

As expected, the initial surge of post-MOU inbound ballast (i.e., empty) tankers through Hormuz has entirely faded and the lack of ballast tanker capacity is now again the primary impediment to a recovery in fresh Gulf oil loadings.

The confirmed volume of oil flowing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has fallen by ~40% since the Houthis announced their naval blockade of Saudi shipping Russian flows holding pretty firm, while Saudi flows are functionally back to prewar (pre-East-West pipeline reroute) levels

we have forgotten the ancient teachings

Ashton Pittman@ashtonpittman.bsky.social · 2d ago

Update: No deal, back to war, Trump says.

Hormuz oil flow begins to rise again. Still well off the ~15 MMbpd late-June high, but back up to just less than 5 MMbpd (10dma) at latest count. As expected, much of that is the return of the Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship dark shuttle trade, which may soon exceed pre-MOU pace.

🇨🇳👨‍🔬 Some Chinese petrochemical output indicators to kick off the weekend. Biggest decline in primary plastics (i.e., precursors), actual products far less so, and ethylene bucking the trend higher (naphtha feed displacement via imported ethane?)

What’s that called when you keep doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude markets eased amidst a tentative pause in US-Iran fighting before tightening anew as strikes reignited and spread to critical Saudi oil facilities and as far west as Egypt. Summary below, full report in reply.

10-day average Hormuz-exiting oil flow has fallen below 3 MMbpd. That's down ~80% from late June's peak of more than 15 MMbpd. Feels silly to say five months into this, but that's not enough oil.

US commercial petroleum stocks fell by 3.7 MMbbl last week, with product builds (especially propane) offsetting a larger 7.2 MMbbl draw in commercial crude stocks. Total crude stocks stocks fell by 11 MMbbl including a 3.8 MMbbl SPR draw. Crude and gasoline precariously low.

Spoke with @theatlantic.com about the oil market's ongoing transfixed fascination with what's happening in China. What we know, what we still don't—and may never—know about China's crude import collapse, and what it all means for the future of the oil market. www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026...

The Great Chinese Oil Mystery

America’s greatest rival is single-handedly averting a global energy crisis. No one knows how the country is doing it—or why.

theatlantic.com

Might have to zoom in quite a bit as I have lifted/stolen this; but I think this is potentially the best summation of all the weird strategic and hypotheticals that price signals are factoring in across crude oil. C/O @roryjohnston.bsky.social

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices continue to spiral upward, temporarily breaking back above $100/bbl as the Iran War escalated and the Houthis more directly joined the conflict with a “maritime blockade” on Saudi Arabia. Summary below, link to full report in reply.

NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social PIECE: Confused about the oil market's behavior while the Strait of Hormuz is closed? This is my long piece breaking down what's happening, with the help of @roryjohnston.bsky.social's excellent Odd Lots interview last month. www.crisesnotes.com/the-oil-mark...

The Oil Market is a Conventional Wisdom Processor

I had so many thoughts about the run up to- and beginning of- the Trump-Iran war. My biggest thoughts were focused on how the ideas that I developed about the stock market as a “conventional wisdom pr...

crisesnotes.com

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 🚀 Hormuz flows and Gulf loadings have definitively rolled over amidst mounting Middle Eastern attacks while the oil complex rerated sharply higher across flat crude prices, term structure, and refined product cracks Summary below, full report in reply.

Brazen. RTS: Trump Media & Technology Group has unveiled a paid, licensed data feed that will give banks ​and trading firms "the fastest" access to posts from influential Truth Social ‌accounts, such as President Donald Trump's, whose posts often move global markets www.reuters.com/technology/t...

Truth Social to sell banks 'fastest' access to Trump's posts

Trump Media & Technology Group has unveiled a paid-for, licensed data feed that will give banks ​and trading firms "the fastest" access to posts from influential Truth Social ‌accounts, such as Presid...

reuters.com

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I was joined by the one and only Jeff Currie for a wide ranging conversation about the theory and reality of crude price discovery running into the shock case study of the Hormuz Crisis. [links below]

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY🛢️ Crude prices jump, see largest weekly gain since mid-May as Iran’s attempt to control Hormuz shipping flows prompted another round of skirmishes that threatened a broader collapse of the MOU ceasefire Summary below, full report in reply.

things are quickly devolving again in the Middle East and I'm worried this is really going to tarnish the the diplomatic brand of Versailles

My latest contribution to @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social Energy: 𝗜𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗢𝗶𝗹 ‘𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗚𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴’? Reduced global refinery capacity, not corporate greed, is keeping pump prices high. Free to read: thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...

Is Big Oil ‘Price Gouging’?

Reduced global refinery capacity, not corporate greed, is keeping pump prices high.

thedispatch.com

Amidst fresh ship strikes by Iran, Hormuz shipping flows have moderated slightly and shifted sharply back toward the northern Iranian route from the southern Omani one.

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices were effectively flat this week amidst a comparatively-quiet stretch of summer headlines, with all eyes on the optimistic-but-lurching resumption of Middle Eastern shipping activity. Summary below, full report in reply.

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗚𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 Assessing the pace and sustainability of the faster-than-expected post-MOU recovery in oil flows—both ways—through the Strait of Hormuz and the still-lagging pace of fresh Gulf loadings. www.commoditycontext.com/p/getting-ou...

Getting Our Bearings Strait

Assessing the pace and sustainability of the faster-than-expected post-MOU recovery in oil flows—both ways—through the Strait of Hormuz and the still-lagging pace of fresh Gulf loadings.

commoditycontext.com

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 💀 Crude fell another $8.50/bbl and Brent slipped into prompt contango for the first since February as the surge of exiting Hormuz barrels hit a still weak Asian import market with China on the sidelines. Summary below, link in reply.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: On the latest episode of Shift Key, @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social talked with @roryjohnston.bsky.social about why we never got $200 oil. And it’s probably not for the reason you think. Listen here: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...

How China Saved the World From Trump’s Energy Crisis

Podcast Episode · Shift Key with Robinson Meyer · June 24 · 55m

podcasts.apple.com

Was a pleasure to rejoin @weisenthal.bsky.social and @tracyalloway.bsky.social to talk about how the world managed to avoid the extraordinarily high demand-destructive pricing I initially thought would have been made necessary by a months-long closure of Hormuz open.spotify.com/episode/1tIm...

Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

Odd Lots · Episode

open.spotify.com

China secretly saved Trump's ass -- and the whole global economy -- after the Iran attack. Fascinating talk between @roryjohnston.bsky.social and @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social ... heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

How China Saved the World From Trump’s Energy Crisis

Rob checks in with Commodity Context’s Rory Johnston as the Iran War (hopefully) draws to a close.

heatmap.news

Listened to this on the way into work today and still digesting all the implications but @roryjohnston.bsky.social remains one of the most important observers of the last several months. heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

How China Saved the World From Trump’s Energy Crisis

Rob checks in with Commodity Context’s Rory Johnston as the Iran War (hopefully) draws to a close.

heatmap.news

This was a really interesting podcast if you’re wondering what the new normal looks like in the Persian gulf

Rory Johnston@roryjohnston.bsky.social · last mo.

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I was joined by @mercoglianos.bsky.social to talk about the nitty gritty of what drove shipping behaviour through the Hormuz crisis and how long it will take to normalize flows. open.spotify.com/episode/7its...