If you want more hot takes on China's 15th Five-Year Plan, here you go! I joined my RAND Europe colleague @fraghi.bsky.social on her "Geoeconomic Competition" podcast. open.spotify.com/episode/3zFd...
Gerard DiPippo
@gdp1985.bsky.social
Director, Global Macro at Eurasia Group. Former RAND China Research Center, Senior Geo-Economics Analyst at Bloomberg, CSIS, DNIO for Economic Issues at NIC, and CIA. All views my own.
Over the past few years, Beijing has been mirroring the U.S. economic-security toolkit. China is developing its own architecture to manage risk, preserve chokepoints, and respond in kind. It's also learning from the United States.
Four-fifths of China’s lost exports to the US have already found alternative markets in the second quarter, the top destinations being Southeast Asia and Europe: www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/art... @gdp1985.bsky.social #trade
China goes to (trade) war
Eighty-two percent of China’s lost exports to the US found alternative markets in Southeast Asia and Europe, a diversion that likely benefited from Beijing’s policy support.
hinrichfoundation.com
In my CLM piece, I argue that PRC exporters have found new markets for ~80% of their lost exports to the US and transshipment is low. I updated those figures to include July data. The conclusion is the same. To the extent there is transshipment, it's mostly via SE Asia.
Gerard DiPippo@gdp1985.bsky.social · 11mo agoIn the latest China Leadership Monitor, I offer some thoughts on China's economy in the trade war. Lots of charts! www.prcleader.org/post/changin...
In the latest China Leadership Monitor, I offer some thoughts on China's economy in the trade war. Lots of charts! www.prcleader.org/post/changin...
Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War | China Leadership Monitor
China is weathering deflation, a property-sector collapse, and renewed trade tensions with the United States through calculated restraint rather than panic. Exports remain resilient via market diversi...
prcleader.org
China nerds, rejoice! The Relevant Organs is back and on here. Follow them for all the news you need. @relevantorgans.bsky.social
Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.
The US and China have a new framework to de-escalate. Whether that'll be durable is unclear. What is clear is that China can and will weaponize its export dominance. We discuss what the trade war teaches us about China's economy in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
I'll be on a stellar panel this evening discussing the resilience of China's economy. I'll be providing the view from Europe. With the excellent Jude Blanchette, @fraghi.bsky.social @gdp1985.bsky.social - for fans of imposter syndrome, this is not to be missed! www.rand.org/randeurope/a...
How Resilient Is China’s Economy?
Have decades of economic planning rendered China’s economy more resilient to external shocks? RAND Europe aims to address this critical question by convening leading experts who will delve into the st...
rand.org
The Trump administration is trying to reindustrialize with tariffs, especially on China. But China has lessons to teach the US about industrial strategy. A new RAND Commentary with @fraghi.bsky.social and Benjamin Lenain. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
I would interpret the US tariff exemptions primarily as an attempt to mitigate the impact on electronics and consumers more than as a signal of a US-China deal. The exempted categories cover about 22% of US imports from China. content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd...
Which US industries are most exposed to the China market? Looking at US majority-owned foreign affiliates, the answer is wholesale trade, computers & electronics, chemicals & pharma, autos, and semiconductors. This could matter for US-China talks and potential PRC retaliation to US tariffs.
Taiwan is nervous. With good reason. Jude Blanchette and I discuss in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
China's total fiscal deficit is set to increase by at least 2 percentage points of GDP in 2025. That's maybe not the massive stimulus some wanted, but it's not small either. The question is the composition and effectiveness of the measures.
China's retaliation to the new 20% US tariffs: - 10-15% tariffs on US ag imports - 10 US firms on Unreliable Entities List - 15 US firms on export control list (Illumina maybe most affected) - No product-specific export controls Less than proportional response.
China/BRI nerds, does anyone know if MOFCOM expanded the countries it counts as BRI in its stats? Is there a list by year? Reported BRI projects and investment surged in 2023. Is this due to categorization?
China Econ and Trade nerds, apply to this!
Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations@penn-us-china.bsky.social · last yr.One week to go before the application deadline of this Friday, February 28! Please circulate this call widely to relevant potential applicants, to help us benefit from as strong and diverse an applicant pool as possible.
I meant "slowdown" in terms of GDP growth *rates*. But if you want *absolute* GDP growth for China and the US, here you go! Whether one uses nominal growth at market exchange rates, real growth at fixed exchange rates, or nominal growth at PPP exchange rates makes a difference.
Gerard DiPippo@gdp1985.bsky.social · last yr.Two narratives about China's economy: - Macro weakness - Technological and industrial strength They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
Two narratives about China's economy: - Macro weakness - Technological and industrial strength They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
Excellent Baiguan piece on 🇨🇳 youth unemployment with data and stories. This reminds me of the "skills mismatch" debate after the US Great Recession. People said the problem was poor or incorrect training or education. Others said it was just a demand problem. 1/ open.substack.com/pub/baiguan/...
Four stories of Chinese youth breaking through high unemployment
Youth unemployment has emerged as a pressing social issue in China.
open.substack.com
There's a tension between Trump's emergent desire for a clear US sphere of influence in the Americas and his opposition to those economies being integrated with the US. 🤔
Tertiary industry (services) account for most of China's GDP growth, although manufacturing increased in importance in 2024. I need to find a way to invest in China's "other" sector. It remains the tertiary industry star...
Gerard DiPippo@gdp1985.bsky.social · 2y agoWhat's going on with China's real estate statistics? NBS reports a recovery in the real estate component of GDP in Q4 2024. But other indicators suggest continuing contraction, except a slight recovery in sales. Trying to figure out how China nailed its 5.00% GDP growth target...
Some thoughts on e-CNY and RMB internationalization (replying to @gdp1985.bsky.social's post: bsky.app/profile/gdp1...)
Daniel McDowell@danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 2y agoI'll begin by saying that I haven't read the report in full, but based on the screenshot that you shared, I would say that I have some questions. It seems to me that this argument disregards the fact that for the yuan to reach its full international potential as a payment currency... 1/
This report emphasizes the importance of Gulf countries "recycling" their petrodollar surpluses. The petroyuan could end these benefits for the US, it says. But Gulf surpluses with AEs (USD bloc) were far larger in GDP terms during the heyday of the petrodollar than with China today.
Gerard DiPippo@gdp1985.bsky.social · 2y agoThis is excellent. But I'm tripping up over this. e-CNY doesn't pay interest. Users will want other RMB assets. "Smart capital controls" could work. But would foreign investors then want more RMB bonds? Cash balances are only a small part of the global capital story. asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
This is excellent. But I'm tripping up over this. e-CNY doesn't pay interest. Users will want other RMB assets. "Smart capital controls" could work. But would foreign investors then want more RMB bonds? Cash balances are only a small part of the global capital story. asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
What's going on with China's real estate statistics? NBS reports a recovery in the real estate component of GDP in Q4 2024. But other indicators suggest continuing contraction, except a slight recovery in sales. Trying to figure out how China nailed its 5.00% GDP growth target...
What are the best research papers on Chinese industrial policy in recent years? Please send links.
Xi Jinping's single most interesting diplomatic interaction caught on video was with Justin Trudeau in 2022. Unique glimpse of Xi's approach and style in a challenging situation. This was not a favorable setting for Xi and he didn't want to actually engage, he just wanted youtu.be/4YkzzhI2EoI
Xi Jinping confronts Justin Trudeau at G20 over 'leaked' conversation details
YouTube video by Guardian News
youtu.be