There are basic but fundamental errors at the heart of the Wolf-Pettis thesis. Most importantly, there is a misunderstanding of the meaning and definition of 'saving'. 1/

Tomas Hirst@tomashirstecon.bsky.social · last yr.

Wolf just casually chucking around the idea of the global reserve currency provider raising capital controls *in the interest of financial stability*. Is it April 1st already? on.ft.com/3ZLo1zB

Another great thread from Glenn, who deserves more followers here IMO. He has been doing yeomen’s work dispelling this kind of nonsense in detail. carnegieendowment.org/posts/2009/1...

Glenn Luk@gluk.bsky.social · 2y ago

Since 2009, China's HSR network has served ~22 billion passengers traveling an aggregate ~7.6 trillion kilometers (~348 km/trip). This is equivalent to ~26k round trips to the sun, or ~0.80 light years.

Since 2009, China's HSR network has served ~22 billion passengers traveling an aggregate ~7.6 trillion kilometers (~348 km/trip). This is equivalent to ~26k round trips to the sun, or ~0.80 light years.

The U.S.-China trade relationship of the first part of the 21st century was at its core predicated on 🇺🇸 retaining brand/tech/IP value and outsourcing production to 🇨🇳 mfg. partners. In return, 🇨🇳 opened up its domestic market to these high-value 🇺🇸 products.

GM originally setup its JV with SAIC-GM in 1995 with its 50% contribution to registered capital of ~$800M The equity component might even be less depending on how much the buildout of the plant was funded by local debt.

Foreign MNCs aren’t investing in China anymore. Meanwhile Chinese MNCs are driving FDI growth in ASEAN, tightly integrating SE Asia into existing supply chains centered around China. ASEAN is at the frontlines of a major shift in global mfg in the coming decades. 🧵

Billy moneyballs Gallium Guys, you’re still trying to fight this tech war and hold onto the gallium that China is no longer selling us. I told you, we can’t do it ... and we can’t do it. Now, what we might be able to do is recreate it. Re-create it in the aggregate.

I wrote this piece seven years ago about the intrinsic value of currency in the context of debates on the value of bitcoin and crypto assets at that time. www.readwriteinvest.com/p/what-is-th...

What is the intrinsic value of fiat currency?

A derivative value of the issuing nation-state

readwriteinvest.com

The "Chinese honeypot AI" meme reveals some disturbing misogyny/xenophobia 👇, which again just highlights the toxicity on the other platform. There is also a "main character" level of conceit evident in assumptions they are prime targets in the first place as if this were a James Bond movie.

A few years ago, I wrote about the story of Qualcomm, Huawei and the "Race to 5G" I discussed the history, technology, and geopolitics of wireless in five Acts leading up to the arrest of Meng Wanzhou in December 2018.

How will the race to 5G dominance play out between Qualcomm and Huawei?

The history, technology and geo-politics of wireless in five Acts

readwriteinvest.com

An eye-opening set of charts on Japanese automakers. Japan and the U.S. car markets are the last refuges for Japanese automakers. In retreat most everywhere else in the world due to being laggards on the EV transition.

NEW from us: Indonesia's president Prabowo announced last week the ambition to phase out fossil-fuel based power plants by 2040, a major step up in ambition compared with the earlier target of phasing out coal by 2056.

We’ve really lost the plot when the highlighted solution to “re-industrializing the economy for national security purposes” is framed around the goal of trying to “rebalance China”. Even if it might be better for us that China rebalances, we have little control over it doing so.

Robin Zeng on #Northvolt ❌ Design ❌ Process ❌ Equipment Source: FT

US manufacturing sector has become less productive since the 2010s in terms of value of output per hours worked www.economicstrategygroup.org/wp-content/u...

Northvolt’s bankruptcy filing highlights the difficulties private capital face in a high-risk, capital-intensive endeavor like batterymaking. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Goldman Funds Take $900 Million Hit on Northvolt, FT Says

Funds managed by Goldman Sachs Asset Management are set to write off almost $900 million on investments in Swedish battery maker Northvolt AB, which filed for bankruptcy protection this week, the Fina...

bloomberg.com

I reviewed the financials for nearly two dozen Chinese EV makers (including incumbent ICE carmakers) and discovered some surprising revelations: 1. High revenue concentration with the top 3 players (BYD, Tesla and Li Auto) accounting for more than half of NEV revenue

A couple thoughts on this story by Elsie Chen and me: -Upper-middle class urban China has become cool and fashionable! Little of that has reached foreign audiences except maybe through TikTok, because of the firewall and all those expelled journalists… apnews.com/article/chin...

In China’s regimented society, youth find release at underground raves

In recent years, space for culture and creativity has been shrinking in China as the authorities have ramped up censorship of concerts, shows, and other cultural events.

apnews.com

Recent @economist.com article argues the middle class is stagnating in Asia, with the key chart showing a noticeable plateau/decline for China. Issue here is conflating the $3-25k HH income group with the “middle class”. China’s number is shrinking because HH incomes are now rising above $25k.

Huge if true. Indonesia is substantially powered by cheap domestic coal, and so far has been slow to transition. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Indonesia’s Prabowo Vows to Retire All Coal Plants In 15 Years

Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto said the government plans to retire all the nation’s coal power plants within 15 years to help stem global warming.

bloomberg.com

Useful map of EV battery gigafactory projects in Europe, of which many are by Chinese/Korean companies

Introduce yourself with your worst feedback from school 👇 Hi I’m Glenn. According to my yearbook, my claim to fame in Middle School was being a fan of the New Jersey Nets, which was considered uncommon where I grew up. (Narrator: Glenn grew up in the middle of New Jersey)

Mike Gow 高英智@mikeygow.bsky.social · 2y ago

Introduce yourself with your worst feedback from school 👇 Hi I’m Mike. After getting my Standard Grade results in 1994, I met my Chemistry teacher - Mr Eccles - and thanked him for teaching me. “Ugh. You’re a chancer and a waster, Gow, and you’ll never amount to anything”.

Viewing # tags by user is a great feature. Feels like @bsky.app team is really thinking about this product by systematically fixing all the things that were broken about the old Twitter, keeping the good parts while adding well-thought-out improvements.

Over the past 12 months, China Railway has ↗️ the HSR network by 2,859 km and ridership has ↗️ by 376M trips and 130B passenger-km. The entire Shinkansen is 2,765 km and carries ~386M riders traveling ~100B px-km. So China Railway built an entire Shinkansen in the last 12 months.

Glenn Luk@gluk.bsky.social · 2y ago

Indeed, just in the past 12 months, China has added the equivalent of Japan's entire Shinkansen network, both in terms of track and ridership, and even more if we factor in total distance traveled. Chinese households are now traveling more distance on HSR on a per capita basis than Japanese ones.

As the decouplers move into the White House, it’s worth noting that many citizens in middle powers favor China as their trading partner over the US. via @ecfr.bsky.social

While the EU can act relatively cohesively as an economic bloc, this thread highlights the issues it has of acting cohesively on core defense matters.

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2y ago

Bloomberg calls on the EU to get serious about common defence spending, linking our paper @lscazzieri.bsky.social There are more difficult obstacles than funding. Europe's military planners will need to tell us what kit they need in a 10Y plan of sorts. The money though: 3 months of Netflix. 1/

The “China eliminated poverty” declaration in 2021 was actually based on *extreme poverty, which is at the ~$2 mark. The next level up is regular poverty which is at this $6.85 mark.

Tom Hancock@tomhancock.bsky.social · 2y ago

World Bank: China’s pace of poverty reduction picked up in 2023 and is expected to continue over the next years based on the upper-middle income poverty line ($6.85/day, 2017 PPP) www.worldbank.org/en/publicati...

There seems to be much “de-dollarization” attention being paid to this recent $2 billion bond issuance by China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) on the NASDAQ Saudi Arabia. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

China Set to Issue Dollar Bonds Offshore After Three-Year Hiatus

China is planning to sell dollar bonds in Saudi Arabia next week, its first debt issuance in the US currency since 2021.

bloomberg.com

TRADE WARS ARE GAS WARS My piece this week on an under-discussed element of the coming trade clash, particularly between the US and Europe - liquefied natural gas. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

The extra 20 characters allows people to add pleasantries like “with all due respect” or “I hear what you’re saying but”