Half-Brick McCurdy

@halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social

A Scot in awe of Ukraine's courage and aghast at the West's turn to the Far-Right

1/3 Russian mortgage market: Despite successive interest rate cuts, the recovery in market rate borrowing remains modest. With the value of new subsidised mortgages as a % of the total having only fallen from c.80% to 2/3, the market remains heavily dependent on Kremlin largesse.

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Perversely, a bank discussing liquidity constraints implies confidence on its part (the usual is to skip the subject and talk about robust capital ratios instead). Sberbank's CEO having recently criticised interest rates (too high), here its CFO wants the central bank to do more about govt debt.

Russian Banks Lack Cash to Buy Government Debt, Sberbank Executive Says - The Moscow Times

Russian banks have no spare ruble liquidity to buy the government bonds used to finance the federal budget deficit, a senior Sberbank executive said, raising questions about Moscow’s ability to cover ...

themoscowtimes.com

👍 Progresses things from destroying one big business to obliterating Russian e-commerce (Ozon +Wildberries=77% market share). As Ozon shares are traded publicly (Wildberries is a private limited company), it's also an opportunity to see what attacks do to a company's share price.

(((Tendar)))@tendar.bsky.social · 6d ago

Zelenodolsk in Tatarstan, currently Russia: Looks like the first attempt to hit a logistics center of Ozon, Wildberries‘ strongest competitor.

1/2 Alongside the disruption, unexpected costs and holes due to appear in VTB Bank’s balance sheet (and presumably 10s of 1000s of small business bank accounts), the war on Wildberries has a bigger political and cultural significance. WIldberries is/was a Kremlin aligned national champion,

Stanimir Dobrev@delfoo.bsky.social · 6d ago

Updated Wildberries infographic. Again worker numbers are likely higher as we only have data for the first stage of the Penza warehouse and equipment in the warehouses would cost likely more than rebuilding them. We may also need a bigger map.

1/2 Misleading FT headline. The US senate vote simply advances a bill that would only eventually give Trump the option to impose sanctions and tariffs. Except, that's something he's already been doing willy-nilly without votes for over a year. And if implemented, what would be expected of Ukraine?

Iikka Korhonen@iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · last wk.

”…proposed measures would target Russian officials, oligarchs and their family members, as well as the nation’s banks and financial institutions. They would also allow Trump to impose tariffs on imported goods from countries that buy Moscow’s oil and gas” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

1/2 Except the Biden administration did appear to view Ukraine being invaded as a conflict where it was entitled to influence/in some cases decide strategy, and an opportunity to bleed a rival. The former analysis was wrong, the latter bad policy, and both generated -ve outcomes for Ukraine.

Joe Stieb@joestieb.bsky.social · last wk.

have some guts and at least say this is what you think the US is doing with Ukraine. At least own up to that bullshit.

Having sat on its hands over liberation day, the EU fining Google is itself notable. Factors here presumably include the legal fate of the liberation day tariffs, US mid-term elections, accepting the US is no longer a reliable NATO partner, that there's no more US aid for Ukraine and Trump fatigue.

Giles Wilkes@gilesyb.bsky.social · 2w ago

In response to the EU taxing American companies, he threatens to tax American consumers. - www.ft.com/content/9b81... via @financialtimes.com 🤪

1/2 The current US administration is institutionally opposed to aiding Ukraine. Congress approved $400m in aid in January almost entirely at the behest of Democrats. By May senators were asking where the spending plan was having repeatedly asked for one. The answer is there is now a plan which is

Senators question Pentagon’s lack of Ukraine spending plan, Europe force posture changes

The Pentagon has yet to explain to Congress how it plans to spend $400 million lawmakers earmarked for weapons for Ukraine

stripes.com

1/2 So there’s the damage/disruption caused by destroying big warehouses, the symbolism of successful drone strikes on a business that’s very much a national champion (having benefited from big government subsidies), and then there’s the digits being wiped off the personal

(((Tendar)))@tendar.bsky.social · 2w ago

Ukrainian drones struck another Wildberries logistics center in Russia, this time in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol region. The facility is completely on fire.

1/2 Russian e-commerce: Market dominated by Wildberries (45%) and Ozon (32%) Seen rapid growth and by 2025 accounted for c.19% of total retail sales (vs 16.9% in the US in 2026) Rather than home delivery, growth driven by development of parcel collection points, a new form of urban infrastructure

(((Tendar)))@tendar.bsky.social · 2w ago

Another Wildberries logistics hub was struck in Russia, this time near Domodedovo, Moscow region. It was bound to happen, eventually.

1/2 The US military spending subsidizing UK/EU welfare talking point needs shot in the face. First, US military spending is the only form of welfare/regional policy both parties agree on and is mostly spent in the US (c.85-90%). Second, and more importantly, the US spends far more on healthcare than

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 3w ago

Sen. Eric Schmitt says he supports annexing Greenland because Denmark might be run by "radical mullahs" in 50 years

BIM in January the US Congress approved $400m in Ukraine aid almost entirely at the behest of Democrats. By May senators were asking why there was not yet a spending plan having repeatedly asked for one *. So great news, but before any "mercurial" Trump BS, is this the $400m or is it as well as?

UNITED24 Media@united24media.com · 4w ago

⚡️ BREAKING: Zelenskyy confirms new US aid package with PAC-3 interceptors. President Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine will receive a new assistance package from the United States in the coming days, including additional PAC-3 interceptors to bolster the country's air defense capabilities.

The cleverest tankie: "It's much more likely to end on the Ukrainian side for economic reasons 'cause they're exhausted. Russia is running a deficit smaller than that of America" (Ones and Tooze podcast, 15/5/26) Internet reply guy: And borrowing costs (and to a lesser extent market liquidity)? *

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That petrol is cheaper in some stations (those owned by oil majors receive the price dampener) than independent others (40% of the total), also helps explain the queues. Except here there's both a wide margin and a major charging well above the prices being reported elsewhere *

Stanimir Dobrev@delfoo.bsky.social · 4w ago

In Novosibirsk prices of fuel at independent gas stations have started rising rapidly with Ai-95 gasoline being offered at 170 rubles. Even at Tatneft which is a vertically integrated gas station chains prices are up with Ai-92 being offered at 124 rubles per liter.