Harald Sterly

@hasterly.bsky.social

Geography, Climate, Human Mobilities @univienna

With 2024 coming in at or above #1o5C, and a run of 12 months to June 2024 where monthly warming was at or above 1.5°C, questions are coming about whether or not the longer-term 1.5°C limit set out in the Paris Agreement has been reached. 2 papers out today look at these Qs. 🧵👇

Reaching the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit: are we there yet?

Two new papers published in Nature Climate Change today ask whether the recent global temperatures at or exceeding 1.5° warming above preindustrial mean the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit has been reac...

climateanalytics.org

The results in both papers depend on how CMIP6 models capture relevant climate processes over the next decade or so. See Discussion and bsky.app/profile/clim... Work @ufz.de together with @carlschleussner.bsky.social and @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social

Climate Analytics@climateanalytics.org · 2y ago

Paper no1 by @bevacquae.bsky.social and colleagues asks what a year where average annual global warming is at or above 1.5°C tells us about the timing of reaching or exceeding the Paris Agreement's longer-term 1.5°C limit. The 2024 calendar year was the first such year.

AMOC news can be confusing—is it slowing? Collapsing? Remaining stable? There’s studies that claim each! That’s why, instead of the latest headline, I always rely on what @rahmstorf.bsky.social has to say—he’s studied it for nearly 40 yrs and knows how each new study fits into the bigger picture.

The AMOC is slowing, it’s stable, it’s slowing, no, yes, …

There's been a bit of media whiplash on the issue of AMOC slowing lately - ranging from the AMOC being on the brink of collapse to it being more stable than previously thought. AMOC, of course, refers...

realclimate.org

In der Nacht zum Dienstag versuchte die Polizei in Leipzig eine Familie aus Georgien abzuschieben. Weil die Mutter wegen eines Hirntumors nicht reisefähig ist, schob die Polizei den Vater und beide Kinder (10 und 6 Jahre) der Familie getrennt ab. Wer fühlt sich von sowas politisch vertreten? Wer?