heepst

@heepst.bsky.social

Finnish architect rants and raves about geopolitics, politics, and culture Russia's war in Ukraine as seen from the frontline states The future of Europe at a time when global democracy is in decline 🇪🇺🇫🇮🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇵🇱🇺🇦

russia struck Kyiv with cluster-warhead missiles Absolute scum. Cluster warheads release dozens of small bomblets over a wide area, making them especially dangerous for civilians

Twenty-four people were injured by a Russian airstrike on a residential neighborhood in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region. Six apartment buildings, two educational institutions, a bank, a post office, retail facilities, vehicles, and infrastructure were damaged. 📹: Radio Liberty

Hämmästyttävällä tavalla edelleen kansantalouden investointiaste ja työttömyysaste korreloivat (negatiivisesti) Suomen taloudessa. Reaali-investointien kehitys se vain jatkaa työttömyyden määrittämistä aivan kuten Keynes 1930-luvulla havaitsi ja keynesiläiset sen jälkeen. #talous #tiede

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9/10 🇫🇮 Suomessa vastaavaa keskustelua käydään korkeintaan politiikan reunoilla. Väittelemme siitä, miten vanhaa mallia pitäisi soveltaa – emme siitä, toimiiko malli enää. Kukaan ei kysy ääneen, miksi samat lääkkeet eivät tunnu tehoavan, vaikka niitä annostellaan yhä uudelleen.

5/10 📚 Ranskalainen sosiologi Pierre Bourdieu kutsui tätä doxaksi: ajattelutapa, josta tulee niin hallitseva, ettei sitä enää tarvitse perustella. Se lakkaa näyttämästä yhdeltä näkökulmalta ja alkaa näyttää todellisuudelta itseltään. Keskustelu käydään sen sisällä, ei siitä.

6/10 🏛️ Historia on täynnä tällaisia kehyksiä: merkantilismi, sosiaalidarvinismi, keynesiläisyys. Jokainen syntyi vastauksena todellisiin ongelmiin. Jokainen muuttui vuosikymmenten myötä itsestäänselvyydeksi – ja lopulta jarruksi juuri sille, mitä sen piti edistää.

Wilhoit’s Law (2018) in action: “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”

Even when shooting for some good old-fashioned theocracy here, which was in vogue for thousands of years all over the world, they have to claim to be the first to do this. The less history you actually have the more you are driven to assert your place in it

Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social · 2w ago

US House Speaker Mike Johnson going full Red Hunter at The Family Leadership Summit: “We were the first nation in the history of the world to boldly proclaim the eternal truth that our rights do not come from government. They come from God Himself.” 1/

Ukraine's ambassador to the UK Zaluzhnyi said he does not believe Ukraine will ever join NATO and urged Kyiv to focus on alternative security alliances. He suggested Ukraine may align with a future European military bloc and described JEF membership as a potentially effective security mechanism.

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Russians are talking about for example "the spirit of Anchorage" right now. They know that Tr*mp offered Putin Eastern Europe on a silver platter but he f*cked up. He didn't take the deal. Then Europe got in the way. Now oil refineries and warehouses are blowing up and they're mad at Putin.

If every Western leader declared that Russia has suffered a strategic defeat, that would discourage Russians from joining the army when the mobilization efforts ramp up. And they wouldn't be lying - The medium-long term outlook for Russia is catastrophic. Capturing a village won't change that.

It'll cost Russians tens to hundreds of thousands of casualties, a ridiculous amount of money, and impact Russians' living standards negatively.

This kind of pressure on Russia is almost completely absent and that's a mistake. They listen to what we say. Russian propagandists and mil bloggers comment on every statement European and American leaders make.

Ukraine faces an existential threat. It doesn't owe the international community 100% transparency on what it's planning to do or what kind of losses it has suffered. That community includes Russia. If you faced an enemy like that, would you point a big red arrow to where your weak points are? 👇🏼

Same goes for personnel losses. Russian casualties are higher. Now, this doesn't mean that the outcome of the war is certain because the resource pools they're drawing from are of different sizes. (This is often exaggerated. Ukraine isn't a small country and Russia isn't rich nor super stable.)

This means that so long as Ukraine can inflict bigger losses on Russia than Russia does on Ukraine, Ukraine has the upper hand. If Ukraine can continue attriting Russian troops faster than Russia can replace them, that could be decisive in the end. Same, again, goes for the Russian economy.

This last part is the part which none of us can be sure about because it depends on so many factors, including allies and internal or external shocks. Political stability, price of oil, and whatnot.

Either I'm going nutty or the world is going nutty. Hoping that the US will make Greenland its next resource colony because you're angry at Denmark or someone else isn't a reasonable response. Joking about Tr*mp "fucking Eskimos" isn't a reasonable response to anything. Instant block and report.

❗️Bingo: Reuters reports that the Volgograd oil refinery halted crude processing. Two primary processing units with a combined capacity of 33,900 tonnes per day were shut down, equal to about 72% of the plant's crude capacity. Secondary processing units were also stopped. #Ukraine

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