Abhi Hiremagalur

@hiremaga.com

hiremaga.com

There’s something magical about a musician’s ability to make people feel good even after they’ve passed away. I have fond memories of hearing Dolly Parton as a kid, and listening to her now seems like the perfect accompaniment to a sunny afternoon in San Francisco.

Interactive versions of these charts are at damstrait.net, along with the rest of the data. Every figure carries a source and an as-of date, and observed data is marked separately from projections and scenarios. I apologize in advance for any mistakes - let me know what you spot. 7/7

Oil & the Two Wars — Flows, Prices & Buffers

What two wars cost the world beyond the barrel: heat, fertiliser, food, water and power — and who actually paid. Every figure linked to its source.

damstrait.net

I'm not an oil trader (and what follows isn't investment advice), but I've been trying to follow what the war has done to oil and other critical inputs, and especially who is bearing the cost. It turns out most of this is answerable from public data (EIA, IEA, FRED). A few examples: 1/7

Ranked chart titled "Every price the strait sets, indexed to its own February." Each of 11 rows is one price divided by its own February 2026 average, with a hollow dot at 100 (pre-war), a red dot at its furthest reading since, and a green dot at its newest print — drawn hollow where the value is an August mean-to-date. From most to least moved: Asian LNG peaked +94% in March, now +82%. Urea fertilizer peaked +82% in April, now −15%. European gas +60% and still at its furthest. US pump gasoline peaked +54% in May, +39% August to date. US diesel peaked +50%, +44% August to date. Brent crude — the ranking's own subject — peaked +50% in May, +31% August to date, ranking sixth. Phosphates +37% and +25%, Australian coal +23%. US Henry Hub gas, the control that never crossed an ocean, went the other way, falling to −15%. The FAO food index moved least, +4%. Sources: FRED/EIA, IMF, World Bank, FAO.

i don’t think you’ll ever be able to one-shot software completely into existence, for the same reasons why you’ve never been able to do that with outsourcing agencies

Box breathing can help us focus on the present, reduce stress and anxiety by lowering cortisol levels, and generally relax and be calm. Box breathing involves four steps repeated in sequence, each for an equal count: Breathe in Hold your breath Breathe out Hold your breath

Box breathing illustration: a person demonstrates breathing in, holding breath, breathing out, holding breath, counting 4 each side around the sides of a box. Also called square breathing: breathe in, hold, breathe out, holdBildBildBild

This talk resonated on many levels. Last night, a few friends and I were lamenting how so much software has become more apparently heavy, sluggish, and gaudy, since AI took over writing most of it. I’m excited for a correction toward quality like @maggieappleton.com describes 👏

Maggie Appleton@maggieappleton.com · 5mo ago

Got to talk at @aidotengineer.bsky.social conf last week about the need for collaborative AI engineering. All our current coding agents are single player. We're trying to scale up individual productivity, but creating tons of alignment problems in the process. We have no good tools for...

Title slide saying "One Developer, Two Dozen Agents, Zero Alignment Why we Need Collaborative AI Engineering"

yeah, i’ve been through my own burnout, so i’ve got processes for dealing with it, but i think we may pack out the psych wards soon with younger people

This kind of continuous partial attention seems self-destructive: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continu... Hope our fellow biological intelligences are working on ways to regulate & nourish their own nervous systems. I’m trying to, it’s not easy, and I’m nowhere near this degree of obsessive interest yet.

mr. TIM@timkellogg.me · 7mo ago

Token Anxiety i think i mostly echo this for myself. with so much that can be done, i often feel like i *should* be doing something, always

Token Anxiety
Nikunj Kothari C @nikunj • Feb 13
A friend left a party at 9:30 on a Saturday. Not tired. Not sick. He wanted to get back to his agents.
Nobody questions it anymore. Half the room is thinking the same thing. The other half are probably checking the progress of their agents. At a party.
All the parties are sober now. Young people don't drink because they're going back to work after. Not inspired by Bryan Johnson, although that's probably a factor. The buzz they want now runs on tokens per day.

Real conversation on the streets of San Francisco: “Even though we have so many people, AI is solving a real labor shortage. All the really good programmers are either really old or dead, so we need to put them in a bottle.”