Mike Beuoy
@inpredict.bsky.social
actuary creator of inpredictable.com co-creator of evollve.net
me remembering that i started inpredictable because i was doing more management stuff in my day job, but I still wanted an outlet where i could code and play around with data, rather than just tell someone else to code it and review the results.
Alonzo Mourning's Disappointment on the Bench
ALT: Alonzo Mourning's Disappointment on the Bench
static.klipy.com
Here's an alternative look at the biggest shots in modern NBA history, this time sorted by change in title probability (rather than KL divergence). Some my think this is a better list - we get Jordan twice here. But Ray Allen's shot gets downgraded.
Ranking the biggest shots in modern NBA history (link in thread). As mentioned yesterday, the #1 shot is a put-back, but it wasn't OG's, which ranked 6th. Derrick White #1 Ray Allen #2 Kyrie #3 Big Shot Bob #4 and #5
I'm working on a way to quantify the biggest shots in the NBA in the past 30 years - based on impact to championship probability. The #1 shot surprised me. A few hints: 1. It was a putback 2. It wasn't a game 7 3. It's not that one, though it does make the top 10
Clutch Win Probability Added leaderboard for the 1st four games of the 2026 NBA Finals. This counts all potential clutch plays - field goals, free throws, rebounds, turnovers, steals, blocks, and assists.
Visiting Jacob Bernoulli’s tomb in Basel. He loved the logarithmic spiral because of its self similarity property. No matter how much you zoom out it looks the same. The epitaph reads “EADEM MUTATA RESURGO”, meaning “Although changed, I will rise again the same”.
New post on Substack. Largely just an announcement that the new version of Excitement Index is now live for both NBA and WNBA win probability charts. Link: inpredictable.substack.com/p/the-new-ex...
The New Excitement Index is now live for NBA and WNBA win probabilities
Fun with information theory
inpredictable.substack.com
Your opponent getting an offensive rebound when you're trying to make a late comeback is so demoralizing.
The 4th and 5th most improbable comebacks of the NBA playoffs took place almost exactly a year apart and at the same venue.
By the current definition of excitement index, Spurs-Thunder last night was the most exciting game of the playoffs.
I really struggle to articulate the disdain I have for the "insider" model that does no investigative reporting or independent analysis and serves only to beat the press release by five minutes. I understand a lot of work goes into it but a lot of work would go into digging a big hole in your yard
Can the jump shot be hacked? Inside basketball's next arms race: Deconstructing the game's most important repetitive motion. For @defector.com: defector.com/can-the-jump...
Can The Jumper Be Hacked? Inside Basketball's Next Arms Race | Defector
In the summer of 2024, during the WNBA’s Olympic break, several Atlanta Dream players who weren’t competing in Paris had gathered for a midseason training camp of sorts. Anyone watching would have see...
defector.com
I’m in charge of the NYT crossword puzzle. I’m obsessed with the website Etsy, the acronym ETA, the volcano Etna, and the first name of actress Ayo Edebiri.
New post: (belated) March Madness Forecasting Thunderdome results. open.substack.com/pub/inpredic...
March Madness Forecasting Thunderdome - The Results
3 models enter, some leave with lighter wallets
open.substack.com
it's fun when your ggplots go off the rails in aesthetically interesting ways
The Sixers were 360 basis points from elimination early in the 3rd quarter.
I think most would agree this is a legitimate clutch assist from Jokic (double teamed and finding an open Hardaway on the opposite end of the court): www.nba.com/stats/events... But....
Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com
A video and Shot Chart interface with the ability to filter down to specific on court events and granular details.
nba.com
brian@trappedinazorb.bsky.social · 4mo agowhy wouldnt assists and rebounds count as clutch plays
Here are the final player clutch rankings for the 2025-26 NBA season. Shai and Jokic finished neck and neck.
Inspired by Zak Kram's article on pace in ESPN, here is an updated chart that shows team correlation by season between offensive pace versus efficiency. An downward sloping line indicates a positive correlation between fast pace and offensive efficiency.
You can set your watch to the reliability of the rubber band effect in the NBA. Red = Team overperforms Blue = Team underperforms Teams play better from behind. It's pretty much the opposite of momentum.
You can check a box on the inpredictable win probability graphs to display real time, rather than game time, on the horizontal axis. That can be helpful for a game like LAC-IND where a game's worth of insanity was packed into the final second.
I watched #Kansas nearly blow a 26-point lead last week. The bigger opponent for CBU wasn't Kansas, it was the clock. With help from @inpredict.bsky.social, here's what the numbers say about when teams should stop hunting quick 2's & start hunting 3's: open.substack.com/pub/edwithsp...
Corralling the Madness in College Basketball
Why Don't More Teams Understand Late-Game Situations?
open.substack.com
New Substack post: March Madness Forecasting Thunderdome I apply my Kelly-based forecast evaluation method to models predicting the NCAA Men's Basketball national champion. Link: open.substack.com/pub/inpredic...
