BoE holds rates at 3.75% for the fifth time in a row on 6-3 Committee vote. Bigger question for today is what the Bank has to say about how long high inflation is going to hang around. This matters for the new government and struggling families. Thread on that to follow...

Welcome - and slightly larger than expected - fall in UK CPI inflation in June to 2.6% (2.8 in May). But, with conflict in the Middle East resuming, this is likely to prove short lived, meaning the government is right to focus on cost of living pressures. Thread to follow...

Perhaps the biggest challenge for Andy Burnham is going to be how to balance the books. So here's a thread on the challenges ahead drawing on a new RF report with Simon Pittaway, Cillian Sheehan and Andy King. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

The great escape • Resolution Foundation

This report is the first in a series on the size and shape of the state, and how the public finances can be better managed in an era of low growth and high uncertainty. It diagnoses how Britain fell i...

resolutionfoundation.org

Here at @resolutionfoundation.org we’re giving advice to Andy Burnham and his new government on how to end our fiscal malaise this morning. Great panel to discuss the difficult issues here…

Please do join this great @resolutionfoundation.org event starting soon.

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 3w ago

🚨Event tomorrow🚨Breaking free of fiscal chains: How to get the public finances back on a sustainable path Join us to discuss the mistakes of fiscal policy in recent decades and what policies should the new PM consider to get public finances on a healthier footing. Sign up here➡️ buff.ly/LJbSfNL

Huge congratulations to Silvana and what a great appointment for the IMF. Having worked closely with Silvana as an @resolutionfoundation.org associate it is clear that she will be amazing in this job. Sad to see her exit the UK policy debate - but our loss is the world economy's gain! 👏👏👏

Reuters@reuters.com · 4w ago

IMF appoints Silvana Tenreyro as chief economist, head of research reut.rs/4yb4AQ8

New @OBR_UK Fiscal risks and sustainability report out today: obr.uk/frs/fiscal-r.... Plenty of exploding debt charts to confirm your worst fiscal fears (see below). But there's also some hints at our fiscal salvation... Short thread on that to follow (& a plug for next week)...

Bank of England on hold as expected this lunchtime (so rates stay at 3.75%). Big story for today is whether the Bank will give any indication as to whether the next move in rates is up (on inflation concerns) or down (given tumbling energy prices and weak lab market). Short thread to follow...

All you need to know about this morning's (volatile) labour market data.

Louise Murphy@louisemurphy.bsky.social · 2mo ago

This morning’s data shows a weak labour market: unemployment remains high and real wages are barely growing. The monthly LFS unemployment data is volatile but the big picture is that unemployment has been climbing for the past few years and stood at 4.9% in the three months to April.

Hold onto your hats everyone because there's double *good* news on UK inflation this morning... The expected rise in inflation in May failed to materialise AND (more importantly) falls in energy prices mean inflation will peak much lower than expected later this year...

The debate on UK defence spending has jumped to a tradeoff between welfare and defending the country. That is odd, unhelpful and - in some cases - just plain inaccurate as Ruth Curtice explains here: substack.com/home/post/p-...

Defence versus welfare – the trade-off is being misrepresented

Ruth Curtice takes a closer look at the 'defence versus welfare spending' debate, and explains why it's important we have a clear picture of how we spent the peace dividend while it was around.

substack.com

Here @resolutionfoundation.org we are talking wars, no, not in the Middle East this time, but trade wars. We have @soumayakeynes.ft.com and @chadpbown.com talking about how to win one.

UK inflation data out this morning show an unexpectedly big FALL in the rate of price increases. You might be forgiven for thinking there is a war on, so why is inflation falling? A LOT going on here, so thread to follow. Key point - this is the last fall for a while so enjoy it while you can...

Want to know why we all want to live in the UK but only in January, February and March (Q1)? @simonpittaway.bsky.social has all the answers for you...

Simon Pittaway@simonpittaway.bsky.social · 3mo ago

The UK economy grew by 0.6% in Q1 2026, according to data released by the ONS today. This continues a trend of strong Q1 data post-pandemic, which has previously petered out in later quarters. Given high energy prices and interest rates, don’t be surprised if that happens again in 2026. 🧵

I've been writing about interest rates (again) for the RF Substack.

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 3mo ago

The Bank of England has so far refrained from raising interest rates, but they're going up anyway. @simonpittaway.bsky.social endeavours to figure out why, in our latest Substack ⤵️ buff.ly/jSznnrR

Bank of England follows the Fed and holds its policy rate at 3.75% given uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East. BoE hints it will be patient on raising rates but the bigger issue is its assessment of the impact of the war. Thread on all that to follow...

We got a first look at the public finances for the whole of 2025-26 this morning. The government should take credit for bringing down borrowing BUT: taxes are up a lot; and the pub finances are in a worse state than before the election. @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social has all the details for you:

Elliott Christensen@elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Public finances data out this morning show the government managed to reduce borrowing in the financial year ending March 2026. But the economic effects of war in the Middle East present a new risk to the outlook. 🧵

🚨Live in 5 minutes! 🚨 What does war in the Middle East mean for the economic outlook and the public finances? Watch here ➡️ buff.ly/95QR0VI

New inflation data out this morning are the first to be affected by war in the middle east. CPI inflation was 3.3% in March, up from 3.0% in February, mainly driven by rises in petrol prices. Further increases in inflation are on the way. Short thread on where we are headed to follow...

All the details of this morning's conflicting labour market stats wrapped up in one handy thread from @hannahslaughter.bsky.social, @louisemurphy.bsky.social and @jametg.bsky.social 👏👏👏

Hannah Slaughter@hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 4mo ago

This morning’s stats show that the labour market remains loose, with high unemployment (albeit with a surprise fall in the latest month) and weak wage growth. A thread about what this means as we go into an energy price shock from me, @louisemurphy.bsky.social and @jametg.bsky.social:

Good work from @resolutionfoundation.org colleagues in pushing for changes to energy pricing:

Jonny Marshall@jonnymarshall.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Good to see removing the Carbon Price Support form part of this. Something @resolutionfoundation.org suggested way back in 2023

Some facts behind all the debate on what is happening in the mortgage market right now.

Simon Pittaway@simonpittaway.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Interesting from today's FPC record: the recent rise in mortgage rates reflects lenders facing higher funding costs rather than wider spreads. So far at least, it's not a classic credit crunch for mortgagors - just an unwelcome repricing for those looking to take out a loan (inc. yours truly!)

I may be hopelessly biased but this is a great piece of working trying to spark debate about the impact of seemingly opaque financial regulation on younger and poorer families. @simonpittaway.bsky.social & Hannah Aldridge. 👏👏👏

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 4mo ago

📢 New analysis published today! 📢 A New Starter Deposit scheme could deliver a double win by helping up to a million priority first-time buyers onto the housing ladder 🏡 🪜 ⤵️ buff.ly/0OaFqsX

Not too late to sign up to tomorrow great event on the housing market:

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 4mo ago

Is financial regulation holding back Britons’ aspirations of home ownership? Join a great discussion tomorrow morning with Sarah Breeden (Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the @bankofengland.bsky.social), Sarah Harrison, Neal Hudson and Hannah Aldridge. Register ⤵️ buff.ly/vLF9krB

As expected, UK CPI inflation held steady at 3.0% in February according to data out this morning. But the key issue is where inflation is *going*, rather than where it was. Thread on what the latest data tells us and how cost of living pressures will now build to follow...

This is going to be a great event on Thursday with @bankofengland Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, who is an excellent speaker. Do sign up.

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 5mo ago

🗓️ Event next Thursday Is financial regulation holding back Britons’ aspirations of home ownership? @jamessmithrf.bsky.social will be discussing with Sarah Breeden, Sarah Harrison, @resi-analyst.bsky.social and @simonpittaway.bsky.social Tickets here ⤵️ buff.ly/vLF9krB

10y yields are at their highest since 2008 today off the back of expectations that central banks will soon have to raise rates. This is bad news for the public finances and bad news for those looking to get a mortgage.

Elliott Christensen@elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Slightly eye-wincing moves in markets as expectations rose for a sharp rise in interest rates later in 2026 following the Bank's decision to hold rates in March's MPC meeting. And today we're seeing 10-year bond yields rising to levels last seen in 2008. Good news, it isn't...

Unanimous in the face of uncertainty. Yesterday's Bank of England decision to hold interest rates at 3.75% was the first unanimous vote by the 9-strong Monetary Policy Committee in over 4 years.

Public finances data was pretty disappointing this morning. Not ideal given war in the Middle East is likely to end up hitting the public sector finances. @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social has all the details for you...

Elliott Christensen@elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Disappointing government spending and borrowing numbers this morning – not helpful given conflict in the Middle East is likely to worsen the public finances. Other issue today is whether the data support the OBR’s benign forecasts. Thread to follow…

Here's all you need to know on today's key labour market data. Things were a bit better than expected (unemployment rate lower; employment stronger) but that's not been shared by younger people, who are faring worse, and all this comes before any effects from the conflict in the Middle East.

Nye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Today’s labour market stats were better than expected – headline unemployment didn’t rise thanks to a surprise Jan single month number, and payrolled jobs rose. Real wages are still growing (slowly), but war in the middle east clouds the outlook there. Thread from me and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social