Julien Barnes-Dacey
@jbdacey.bsky.social
MENA programme director at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Europe-based, once upon a time in Syria and Egypt
Launching our new project: The Ideas of Israel. My colleague Beth Oppenheim maps the battle of ideas reshaping the country as hardline nationalist & religious ideas go mainstream - with important implications for European policy @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/special/the-...
The ideas of Israel – European Council on Foreign Relations
Israel’s illiberal and ethno-nationalist forces are reshaping the country in their image. This is a structural transformation that runs deeper than October’s el
ecfr.eu
Launching our new project: The Ideas of Israel. My colleague Beth Oppenheim maps the battle of ideas reshaping the country as hardline nationalist & religious ideas go mainstream - with important implications for European policy @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/special/the-...
The ideas of Israel – European Council on Foreign Relations
Israel’s illiberal and ethno-nationalist forces are reshaping the country in their image. This is a structural transformation that runs deeper than October’s el
ecfr.eu
📖 NEW @ecfr.eu policy brief by @cinziabianco.bsky.social: Little Venice, little Sparta: The UAE’s statecraft meets the war on Iran🧵 buff.ly/GDCU22X
Little Venice, little Sparta: The UAE’s statecraft meets the war on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations
The UAE built its power by turning itself into a hub that binds it to every great power at once. The war with Iran has tested this strategy and is forcing a ret
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🗞️"Continued progress in Syria will depend on direct external support, of which Europe’s contributions remain undervalued, but also key structural reform-an area where Europeans are uniquely placed to contribute"- @jbdacey.bsky.social chapter on EU-Syrian ties euromesco buff.ly/4O6tgV7
The Return of Syria to the Euro-Mediterranean Cooperation Arena : EuroMeSCo – Euro-Mediterranean Research, Dialogue, Advocacy
EuroMeSCo
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Video of our @ecfr.eu interview with Saudi FM yesterday: Riyadh’s reaction to the Iran-US MOU, prospects for a wider deal & new regional security architecture, thoughts on the $300bn investment fund, passage through Hormuz, Gaza & more youtu.be/ov0jVc-Z6cc?...
Fireside Chat with Prince Faisal Bin Farhan Bin Abdullah Al Saud
YouTube video by ECFR
youtu.be
Good to interview Saudi FM at @ecfr.eu Annual Council Meeting in Vienna this evening. His first public comments on US-Iran MOU with some clear thinking on Saudi position. Initial thread with some of his comments below and a video to follow
ECFR MENA@ecfrmena.bsky.social · 4mo agoSaudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud discusses Saudi Arabia's role in the region and possible cooperation with Europe with @ecfr.eu's @jbdacey.bsky.social #ACM2026
Introducing our @ecfr.eu "Iran Nuclear Monitor," an interactive & continually updated dashboard assessing the state & trajectory of Iran's nuclear program after a year of Israeli & US bombings - authored by Ellie Geranmayeh ecfr.eu/special/iran...
Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month – European Council on Foreign Relations
America and Israel have bombed Iran since 2025 to block Tehran's path to nuclear weapons. ECFR’s interactive dashboard, updated monthly, assesses current eviden
ecfr.eu
Amid deep ongoing challenges in Syria, now amplified by regional war, very useful to exchange with Syrian FM Asaad al-Shaibani during an @ecfrmena.bsky.social lunch on the day that the EU & Syria launch their high-level political dialogue
📖 The EU's Pact for the Mediterranean is timely but risks defaulting to short-term deals rather than delivering meaningful regional integration. Its "menu" approach will be more effective if the EU bundles initiatives into comprehensive packages @Tmegrisi.bsky.social 👇️ ecfr.eu/publication/...
The full monty: Why the Mediterranean pact needs to offer the works – European Council on Foreign Relations
Europe’s energy, industrial and migration interests all converge in its southern neighbourhood, where rivals are eroding its influence. The new Pact for the Med
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If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire - Ellie Geranmayeh & Jeremy Shapiro https://bit.ly/4brdqQF
Hormuz hold’em: How to stop the US-Iran crisis in the strait – European Council on Foreign Relations
If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy cr
bit.ly
With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging toward state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight behind France’s diplomatic push, writes Kelly Petillo. Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/3Pi7nW5
Lebanon on the brink: Europe must act now if it wants to prevent a refugee wave – European Council on Foreign Relations
With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging toward state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight beh
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After some initial support & ambiguity Europeans now clearly rejecting US efforts to draw them into Iran war. Question is whether they can play any role pushing parties towards new diplomacy www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
European countries reject Trump’s call for help to reopen strait of Hormuz
Leaders seek a diplomatic solution despite US president’s threat of ‘a very bad future’ for Nato unless it provides warships
theguardian.com
“Batoul & her loved ones were among 773 Lebanese people – including more than 100 children – killed by Israel’s campaign in Lebanon since 2 March. They join a growing list of families completely wiped out by Israeli bombings” www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
Entire families wiped out and towns emptied as Israel’s war on Lebanon intensifies
Communities displaced and destroyed while death toll rises faster than during any previous war in Lebanon
theguardian.com
“price of continued conflict…against regime prepared to set world on fire is too high. Better to end it immediately…then seek to address thorny challenges through renewed diplomacy than risk ever more unmanageable, expanding & perilous war” - @crisisgroup.org www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-e...
Finding an Off-ramp in the Middle East War | International Crisis Group
While the U.S. and Israel have damaged Iran in the Middle East war, Tehran has expanded the conflict. With neither side positioned for a decisive win, the escalation risks are sobering. Diplomacy is c...
crisisgroup.org
“Iranian regime is unlikely to back down because it retains several advantages: geography, time & asymmetry. The longer the war goes on, the greater the cost to everyone else — and the Iranian regime has superior pain tolerance” @emile-hokayem.bsky.social FT piece giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Who is winning the Middle East war?
Iran has taken a beating but it retains the advantages of geography, time and a superior tolerance for pain
giftarticle.ft.com
“Those in command of Iran today are veterans of asymmetric wars in Iraq & Syria. They are now applying the same strategy to fighting the US on the battlefield of the global economy” - @valinasr.bsky.social on Tehran’s long game strategy giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Iran is playing a long game
An asymmetric war that brings the global economy to a standstill could exhaust the US and force a ceasefire
giftarticle.ft.com
“This private-actor diplomacy has revealed its more dangerous & illuminating consequences in Iran. Reports suggest White House envoys Witkoff & Kushner—meeting Iranian negotiators in Geneva—didn’t grasp the mechanics of the Iran nuclear issue” ecfr.eu/article/frie... @ecfr.eu
Friends-and-family diplomacy: Lessons for Europe from Gaza and Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations
Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europ
ecfr.eu
Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europe needs to find a way to shape the terms, write Julien Barnes-Dacey, @jkobzova.bsky.social and Jim O’Brien. https://bit.ly/40rJAFu
Friends-and-family diplomacy: Lessons for Europe from Gaza and Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations
Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europ
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‘Stunned, sidelined and disunited’: how war in the Middle East paralysed the EU www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
‘Stunned, sidelined and disunited’: how war in the Middle East paralysed the EU
Amid fears the conflict will strengthen Russia, Ursula von der Leyen’s embrace of US-backed regime change already looks like a doomed strategy
theguardian.com
New @nytimes.com piece by my colleague Ellie Geranmayeh on possibility of arming the Kurds to fight Tehran: “This will most likely backfire terribly — both on the Kurds & other US allies in the region. It could also set in motion nightmare scenario of a civil war” www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/o...
Opinion | Leave the Kurds Out of It
nytimes.com
It would be strategic lunacy for Europe to support the US/Israeli war on Iran. It is an illegal war that comes with huge costs: regional spillover, higher energy costs, helping Putin in Ukraine. It risks drawing Europe into a new regime change quagmire ecfr.eu/article/stra...
Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations
Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralli
ecfr.eu
Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran - my new piece with Ellie Geranmayeh @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/stra...
Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations
Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralli
ecfr.eu
A pleasure to discuss Europe's response to the Iran war with @stevenerlanger.bsky.social on the CNAS Brussels Sprouts podcast with Andrea Kendall-Taylor & @jteurope.bsky.social www.cnas.org/publications...
Europe’s View on Operation Epic Fury
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.
cnas.org
Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran - my new piece with Ellie Geranmayeh @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/stra...
Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations
Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralli
ecfr.eu
For the EU, Syria should be seen as the perfect partner to showcase and advance the opportunities afforded by the new Pact for the Mediterranean, with a wider range of tools that could be quickly deployed by the new DG MENA, writes @jbdacey.bsky.social buff.ly/UK1FDIO
A year after Assad: The search for Syria’s future – European Council on Foreign Relations
Syrians are rebuilding their country from the ruins of dictatorship, but progress could stall without a clear vision for the future
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Our collective piece on the regional and global drivers, theatres & implications of the Iran war from across @ecfr.eu, with thread below ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...
A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s
ecfr.eu
ECFR MENA@ecfrmena.bsky.social · 7mo ago🧵 US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the region into wider war. Each power involved will leave the war with less than it entered, but the damage will be felt unevenly. @ecfr.eu experts weigh in on the unfolding conflict 👇️ ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...
A little leftfield amid current regional developments but: A new piece from me on Syria's transition one year since the formation of the transitional government after a series of trips to the country ecfr.eu/article/a-ye... @ecfr.eu
A year after Assad: The search for Syria’s future – European Council on Foreign Relations
Syrians are rebuilding their country from the ruins of dictatorship, but progress could stall without a clear vision for the future
ecfr.eu
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no side will achieve an easy victory, write colleagues from ECFR's programmes in this 360 degree reaction ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...
A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s
ecfr.eu
Our big @ecfr.eu 360° reaction piece to the Iran conflict, assessing regional & global positioning, risks and implications as the war plays out in devastating fashion across the Middle East - and beyond ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...
A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s
ecfr.eu
Our big @ecfr.eu 360° reaction piece to the Iran conflict, assessing regional & global positioning, risks and implications as the war plays out in devastating fashion across the Middle East - and beyond ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...
A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s
ecfr.eu