John Holbein
@johnholbein1.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, and Education @UVA. I share social science.
We're experiencing loneliness epidemic. Could AI chatbots help solve that problem? If you would have asked me up until recently I would say "probably!". But we don't know for sure. To answer this question, researchers in France recently ran a very cool experiment...
OUT TODAY! 🥳 A straightforward, non-technical guide to thinking like a quantitative social scientist. Written for students, journalists, and curious citizens. A lot of thought and heart went into this. I genuinely hope folks enjoy it!
Has the gap between MJ and LeBron closed over time? Not really! Since 2016, the gap has held steady. Nothing LeBron has done over the last 10 years has closed the gap. Not the 2020 title (+ the finals MVP). Not the 2024 Olympic gold medal. Not passing Kareem. I think this is fascinating!
John Holbein@johnholbein1.bsky.social · 2d agoWho's the consensus best NBA player of all time? MJ or LeBron? To find out, I compiled all of the journalist player rankings that I could find. I found 54 in total. Here's what the experts think...
Who's the consensus best NBA player of all time? MJ or LeBron? To find out, I compiled all of the journalist player rankings that I could find. I found 54 in total. Here's what the experts think...
I find political scientists' lack of attention to effect sizes/substantive significance deeply troubling.
Do you agree or disagree with this statement? “Students accused of plagiarism are punished more harshly than professors accused of plagiarism.”
If I submit a good and timely referee report to a journal, then they have to publish my research. That's how it works, right?
📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇
Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil
Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ
papers.ssrn.com
Trump's tariffs have reduced tourism to the U.S. a lot. They've led to $1 Billion in lost revenue per month.
Psychologists often hide their sample sizes in abstracts. Political scientists often hide their identification strategies in abstracts. Economists often hide their study's context in abstracts.
Noncompete clauses reduce workers' earnings. Noncompete clauses also provide no measurable protection against trade-secrets being leaked beyond standard NDAs.
Broadband internet access decreased rural teen birth rates.
Social media has decided every movie is terrible months before it’s released.
Hard to win a World Cup when you’re not trying to score
It amazes me that, in the year of our Lord 2026, academic journals still haven’t figured out how to let authors include interactive visualizations.
I just handled a manuscript where we had to invite 17 referees to get 2 reviews. I used to wonder why peer review takes so long. Multiple factors are at play. But editors face a Herculean task of getting reviewers to accept and then deliver in the current moment.
I just submitted my Promotion to Full Professor packet. Fingers crossed!
Now an even easier resource to point to than the papers. Names are compound treatments, so choose wisely.
John Holbein@johnholbein1.bsky.social · 2mo agoRunning an experiment to study racial discrimination? Going to use names to signal race? Here's a new tool! This helps you to choose the names you want to use based on: 1.) the strength of the racial signal you want to send 2.) whether you want to hold other factors (e.g., class) constant
Running an experiment to study racial discrimination? Going to use names to signal race? Here's a new tool! This helps you to choose the names you want to use based on: 1.) the strength of the racial signal you want to send 2.) whether you want to hold other factors (e.g., class) constant
Another one from the same literature! What a mess.
John Holbein@johnholbein1.bsky.social · 2mo agoThe event study results from a widely cited PS article... (They only report static diff-in-diffs)
The event study results from a widely cited PS article... (They only report static diff-in-diffs)
Each ICE operation generates roughly $196,000 in monthly losses for nearby businesses and communities. (That's 11x the government's administrative cost of a deportation.) Why? ICE activity decreases foot traffic in those public areas.
More and more, I'm convinced that many self-described free speech advocates are really advocates of free speech for themselves.
I was thinking this morning about how AI is pretty good at starting research projects, but not very good (at least for now) at finishing them. As a result, it’s become much easier for scholars to accumulate an unmanageable backlog of half-baked, AI-assisted projects... 1/n
You may think I’m being pedantic. You may believe there aren’t enough conservatives in academia. Your personal experience may be consistent with that conclusion. But we can’t build knowledge on beliefs and n=1 anecdotes.
John Holbein@johnholbein1.bsky.social · 2mo agoIrony is dead. Widely circulated report that slams the humanities for a lack of rigor is ... not itself rigorous. Humanities certainly have lots of issues, but we can do better than this.
Irony is dead. Widely circulated report that slams the humanities for a lack of rigor is ... not itself rigorous. Humanities certainly have lots of issues, but we can do better than this.
