John Voorheis

@johnvoorheis.bsky.social

Bad takes are my fault

A key thing that once you realize it kind of radicalize you re: taxation of unrealized gains is that we already have a tax system that features changes in tax based on unrealized changes in asset values --- deductions for depreciation.

People who object to the current state of academic research in any particular discipline have the option of applying to grad school, getting a PhD, writing the papers you want to see in the world, submitting them to journals, revising them to address referee comments and then getting them published.

With additional PM2.5 data through 1000Z today, I think we can safely say that this is the most impactful wildfire smoke event in recent history -- around 41.3 million people have been exposed to at least one hour of Hazardous PM2.5 & the number of person-hours spent in Hazardous range is now 368.9m

John Voorheis@johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 3w ago

Rough live calculations of impact of the severe #wildfire smoke event as of 13:00 UTC (9AM ET): about 24.7 million people have experienced at least one hour of hazardous PM2.5 (above 225 ug/m3) 201.5 million person hours have been spent in the Hazardous range (US numbers only)

Rough live calculations of impact of the severe #wildfire smoke event as of 13:00 UTC (9AM ET): about 24.7 million people have experienced at least one hour of hazardous PM2.5 (above 225 ug/m3) 201.5 million person hours have been spent in the Hazardous range (US numbers only)

Morning situation: extra not great. Though, on a pop-weighted basis, the NWS forecast underestimating smoke to the west (Minneapolis) and on overestimating smoke to the east (NYC/Philly) means this is a little lower impact than the worst case

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Quick calculation using the Gridded EIF and the 0600Z NWS PM2.5 forecast: Around 71 million people are forecasted to be exposed to at least one hour of PM2.5 concentrations in the "Hazardous" category (AQI above 300, concentrations above 225 ug/m3)

The NWS Air Quality Guidance forecast product is predicting a very severe wildfire smoke event over the next few days -- if this verifies, could be the worst air quality event since the Canadian wildfire smoke events of 2023/2025

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Looks like the forecast for this afternoon is for wet bulb globe temperatures around 91 degrees F in Ann Arbor; there are not a ton of benefits to working out of an office in a windowless basement in an old concrete building, but avoiding all that is maybe one.

Since we're discoursing about housing, a semi-provocative take: there is no reason to believe that the well-being of current neighborhood residents should be given any particular weight in the siting and characteristics of new construction.

One lesson is "you can make publicly acknowledged funding and partnerships nefarious if you pretend it was a secret" but also "don't conduct yourself in such a way that a hatchet job can get written about you two decades later"

Bob Kopp@bobkopp.net · last mo.

I have to correct an error in my comments yesterday on the ProPublica article. Chris Mottershead’s contributions to the Wedges paper are clearly acknowledged, as is the funding by BP. So the supposed scandal here is, simply, the neoliberal university

I have become somewhat radicalized on this: if we require realization for capital gains or losses to be considered income, we absolutely need to do the same for depreciation being considered a business expense