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Joshua Black

@joshuablackjb.bsky.social

Views are my own

82 Posts1421 Follower83 Folgt
The Australia Institute@australiainstitute.org.au · last yr.

"The outer-Melbourne electorate of Calwell had "the most complex count in Australia's history", but almost nobody was talking about it before the election. Why? Only four journalists live in the seat, the least of anywhere in Australia. @rodcampbell.bsky.social writes ⤵️ #auspol

Why the election’s closest seat went unnoticed: Too close to Calwell - The Australia Institute

The outer-Melbourne electorate of Calwell was named “Australia’s most unpredictable seat” by The Age after the election and was – aside from those going to a recount – the last seat to be called. The ...

australiainstitute.org.au

Joshua Black@joshuablackjb.bsky.social · last yr.

"The long view matters here" "some things seem more historic than they are, while the truly novel features of Australia’s current political landscape may pass us by" My piece with @browne90.bsky.social on the size of the crossbench in historical context australiainstitute.org.au/post/end-of-...

End of the LNP Coalition would makes this the largest crossbench in the post-WWII era - The Australia Institute

A large crossbench might seem unusual, but before WWII they were commonplace in Australia.

australiainstitute.org.au

The Australia Institute@australiainstitute.org.au · last yr.

If the LNP remains split, @joshuablackjb.bsky.social & @browne90.bsky.social note it would be the biggest crossbench since WWII. But before WWII big crossbenches were common #OffTheCharts australiainstitute.org.au/post/end-of-...

Greg Jericho@grogsgamut.bsky.social · last yr.

Hilariously, the AFR is showing just how absurd is the scare campaign against the super tax changes. They give an eg where someone's super goes from $2m to $3.18m in a year! Yep a $1.18m increase. How much extra tax? $1,528! OMG!! THAT'S OUTRAG... err... oh actually that's bugger all

Assuming it is $3.1 million, with the $80,000 pension payment it becomes $3.18 million. If your balance on June 30, 2026, is greater than $3 million (say $3.1 million) then Division 296 tax will count a balance of $3.18 million in its calculations even if your balance at the start of the year was less than $3 million (in your case $2 million) One aspect of Division 296 tax where you have a greater than $3 million balance at the end of the year but a balance of less than $3 million at the start is that it will be calculated as if your year started with a $3 million balance. When determining your super earnings for Division 296 tax purposes you add together your year-end balance with pension payments and then deduct your balance at the start of the year from this. That’s $3.1 million plus $80,000 less $3 million. This will give you total super earnings for Division 296 purposes of $180,000. Despite the large increase in your fund from $2 million to $3.1 million, your Division 296 liability will be significantly less given it won’t include the increase in your total super below the $3 million threshold. The 15 per cent tax will only apply to the percentage that $180,000 represents of $3.18 million or 5.66 per cent. While 15 per cent of $180,000 is $27,000, 5.66 per cent of this results in a Division 296 tax liability of $1528. This assumes there is no change in the proposed tax when – and if – it finally becomes law.
The Australia Institute@australiainstitute.org.au · last yr.

If the LNP remains split, @joshuablackjb.bsky.social & @browne90.bsky.social note it would be the biggest crossbench since WWII. But before WWII big crossbenches were common #OffTheCharts australiainstitute.org.au/post/end-of-...

End of the LNP Coalition would makes this the largest crossbench in the post-WWII era - The Australia Institute

A large crossbench might seem unusual, but before WWII they were commonplace in Australia.

australiainstitute.org.au

Joshua Black@joshuablackjb.bsky.social · last yr.

A brilliant brief from @yuan-frank.bsky.social explaining how the Chinese foreign policy establishment views world affairs right now, including their determination to "resist Trump's trade offensive" australiainstitute.org.au/report/chine... @australiainstitute.org.au

Chinese Foreign Policy Brief - The Australia Institute

The Chinese foreign policy establishment appear determined to resist Trump’s trade offensive. They have asserted China’s position on Taiwan through both direct pressure and diplomacy, and sought to ma...

australiainstitute.org.au

Joshua Black@joshuablackjb.bsky.social · last yr.

Great piece in National Account on declining legacy media influence, and The Oz's logical fallacies in response to that reality "Printed newspapers are no longer the political kingmakers they once were." @australiainstitute.org.au @skyelark.bsky.social www.nationalaccount.com.au/p/newspaper-...

Newspapers spent 30 years picking winners. That streak's over.

A new report has confirmed what plenty of voters have long suspected: newspaper endorsements don’t swing elections like they used to.

nationalaccount.com.au

Joshua Black@joshuablackjb.bsky.social · last yr.

Australian newspapers used to be good at backing winners. Over the past 30 years, most major newspapers backed the winner. Until 2022 and 2025, that is, when newspaper editorials came down on one side and voters came down on the other. 1/6 #Auspol2025

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Gavin Miller@glmiller.bsky.social · last yr.

'The spectre of media moguls as political kingmakers still looms large in the imagination of Australia’s political class': yes, but are they still in control of leaders/factions/duopoly? Will they meet again in 2025? Over to u JB? @joshuablackjb.bsky.social www.crikey.com.au/2022/08/29/a...

Labor and Murdoch, a match made in silence

Labor hasn't commented on the prime minister's reported meeting with Lachlan Murdoch. But if it has met with the News Corp billionaire, why is the government dealing with such a company?

crikey.com.au

The Australia Institute@australiainstitute.org.au · last yr.

“The endorsement of newspapers used to be much sought-after, but these days such endorsements are practically irrelevant,” said @joshuablackjb.bsky.social, report co-author. A new report explores the declining influence of media endorsements and leaders’ debates on election outcomes. Read:

Bellowing from the sidelines. The declining influence of Australia's traditional media. - The Australia Institute

The days of media moguls deciding Australian elections are over, according to new research by The Australia Institute.

australiainstitute.org.au

Joshua Black@joshuablackjb.bsky.social · last yr.

"Dosed-up Tasmanian salmon could pose health risks in the long run" My piece for @thenewdaily.bsky.social on Tassie salmon farming, antibiotic dosing and the ecological + health risks @australiainstitute.org.au www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2025...

Dosed-up Tasmanian salmon could pose health risks in the long run

Tasmania's salmon farming practices are no longer a solely environmental issue – they're a public health issue, too.

thenewdaily.com.au

Joshua Black@joshuablackjb.bsky.social · last yr.

After a brief sleep, here’s my piece for @theconversation.com on the success of independents at the election and their prospects for the next parliament @australiainstitute.org.au theconversation.com/independents...

Independents will not help form government – but they will be vital in holding it to account

Yes, Labor has won a huge majority. But it will still need to work constructively with the crossbench in both the House and the Senate.

theconversation.com

Joshua Black@joshuablackjb.bsky.social · last yr.

Huge thanks to WIN News for talking to us about our research on university spending. It's really important that we start to get some proper disclosure about this spending from every university, not just some!

The Australia Institute@australiainstitute.org.au · last yr.

Australian universities spend hundreds of millions of dollars on travel, marketing, and consultants, while cutting costs, staff, and courses, according to new Australia Institute research. 📺Postdoctoral Research Fellow Joshua Black on WIN News #auspol @joshuablackjb.bsky.social

Joshua Black@joshuablackjb.bsky.social · last yr.

Just so we're clear, Peter Dutton has been "very clear" throughout this campaign. He says so himself... australiainstitute.org.au/post/this-el... @australiainstitute.org.au's Pritika Kumar counts the clarity

This election, Peter Dutton has been repeatedly very, very clear - The Australia Institute

Over the course of an election campaign punctuated by about-faces and flip flops, one constant has been Peter Dutton’s use of “clear” and “very clear” in his press conferences. Based just on the trans...

australiainstitute.org.au

Bill Browne@browne90.bsky.social · last yr.

I hope you've been enjoying the political ads this election campaign - you pay for many of them! @joshuablackjb.bsky.social on @australiainstitute.org.au live blog explains what we know - and don't know - about political finance. live.australiainstitute.org.au/2025/05/aust...

Australia Institute Live: Day 34 of the 2025 election campaign

It's the start of a 48 hour blitz where the leaders will criss cross the country trying to shore up final votes. All the day's events, with fact checks, as it happens.

live.australiainstitute.org.au