Jennifer Robson 🇨🇦
@jrobson.bsky.social
Assoc. Prof. MPM @Carleton; parent; gardener & sometime tradesperson; social & tax policy; worried about details
Over on substack, I blogged a bit about Monday’s s.338 threatened tariffs on Canada. open.substack.com/pub/robsonj/...
Rule 1: The world is a mess. Rule 2: What is truth? Rule 3: Always claim victory.
Let me try to bring together a few different threads I’ve been pulling on in making sense of the July 20th tariff declarations from the White House.
open.substack.com
Between meetings I've been playing with the US trade data again. Lining up their list of goods to be tariffed under s 338 (in 28 days), I find 40 goods where there were $0 worth of imports by US consumers in either 2024, 2025 or both years (most recent full annual data available).
New tariff thread. I'm picking items from the three lists of goods the White House has IDd for 338 tariffs and looking at where in Canada they'll hit: HST 0409.00.00, Natural Honey: 40% of Canadian production is in Alberta agriculture.canada.ca/en/sector/ho...
Code has finished re-running! I get a total, across all 3 lists of about ~5.3% of annual Canadian imports into the US for US consumption (ie: not to be exported on elsewhere) using 2025 data or ~USD$20B, which will now cost US consumers up to USD$10B more if these come into effect in 30 days. 1/n
Jennifer Robson 🇨🇦@jrobson.bsky.social · 2w agoI deleted my earlier estimate after finding an error in the code. The long list (18 pages) of affected goods is equivalent to just under 5% of Canadian goods imported into the US for consumption. That's not nothing, but it's not everything. Source for USTR data: dataweb.usitc.gov/trade/search...
While I wait for my code to rerun, if you missed out on this interview with Greer this AM, it's worth a listen, especially if you are here in Canada. Especially today. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/p...
More Trump Tariffs Are Coming
Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, tells a Times reporter why he thinks that the administration’s tariff policy is working as intended.
nytimes.com
I deleted my earlier estimate after finding an error in the code. The long list (18 pages) of affected goods is equivalent to just under 5% of Canadian goods imported into the US for consumption. That's not nothing, but it's not everything. Source for USTR data: dataweb.usitc.gov/trade/search...
DataWeb
dataweb.usitc.gov
So, once again, rest of the world, what is the value of a "deal" if the White House decides it has a feeling and invokes 338 on items, regardless of trade agreements? Canada is again being used as the test case.
Useful background reading on s 338: www.cfr.org/articles/how... -- while threatened against Germany in 1935 (yep.. that era), it's never been used and so jurisdiction isn't tested. So.... time to litigate.
How Trump’s Tariffs Could Survive the Supreme Court Ruling | Council on Foreign Relations
The Supreme Court has ruled against Trump’s use of tariffs, but the president has other methods and authorities available to him that could keep his trade agenda alive.
cfr.org
50% tariffs JFC "regardless of USMCA" www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Additional Tariffs on Canada
DEFENDING AMERICAN WORKERS AND ENSURING FAIR TRADE: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed three Proclamations pursuant to Section 338 of the Tariff
whitehouse.gov
Well, this will be fun in a few minutes
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 4w agoTrump: "Spain is a wasted cause. We don't want to do any trade business with Spain anymore, by the way. I'd like to cut it off. Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. Cut off all trade with Spain, please. Including visits. We don't want anything to do. They're hopeless. Bad people."
A data-driven response to Trump on Canadian wildfires. 👇 Also, since when is MAGA in favour of emissions pricing??
Zeke Hausfather@zekehausfather.com · 3w agoCanada's boreal forest is roughly the size of Europe (or 4.5x the size of Texas). Most fires are in remote areas far from habitation in that have never had a history of fire suppression or management. And the amount that is burning is directly linked to temperature and rainfall.
And just like that, Fable/Mythos access is back with no restrictions.
Look, it’s not a gold bar, or a plane, or an MOU with some fictional FDI commitment. So as far as props go, this is modest, but maybe effective.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · last mo.OMG -- Rutte even brought visual aids to enhance his Trump ass kissing
Just in time to mark the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum with a seventh Prime Minister in that time. Whoever took back control, it wasn't the occupant of 10 Downing Street.
Laura Phillips@lauraphillips.bsky.social · 2mo ago
In the eight months since Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill passed, SNAP enrollment has declined by 4.7 million, according to USDA data. In states where demographic data are available, about half the decline comes from kids losing food aid. The Trump administration describes this as a success story
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Hunger Crisis
His solution to the food affordability crisis is to cut programs that help people afford food.
open.substack.com
CRA has provided an answer: Data on returns for gender diverse and gender unknown filers are not included to avoid suppressing other variables while ensuring privacy (my wording). I mean, I didn't expect an answer to a random social media post from me, but now you have the same info I do.
Jennifer Robson 🇨🇦@jrobson.bsky.social · 2mo agothousands more where gender was unknown to the CRA. I have a hard time believing that so many Canadians suddenly changed their gender identity. Maybe the method of gender ID changed. Maybe the published data is wrong. Either way, not awesome. What happened CRA?
Canada’s long tradition of building/acquiring more modest official residences (and then failing to maintain them) makes this a tough strategy for us to follow.
Ian Boudreau@ianboudreau.com · 2mo agoHe is just not a complicated guy at the end of the day
A funny thing happened in the most recent published personal income tax data from the CRA. For the last many years, the agency has recorded the number of returns filed by persons identified as male, female, gender diverse and gender unknown. In the most recent release (for 2024 tax year) /n
L'IRPP recrute! Nous recherchons un.e directeur/directrice du développement et des partenariats stratégiques pour diriger nos initiatives de collecte de fonds, de commandites, de partenariats et de développement des revenus. Date limite: 3 juillet, 17h (HE). Plus d'info→ irpp.org/fr/2026/06/d...
Breaking news: Inflation crossed 4 percent for the first time in three years in May, as sustained pressure from the Iran war makes clear that the inflationary hit to consumers is far from over.
Inflation heats up to highest pace in about three years, fueled by Iran war
Inflation hit 4 percent for the first time in three years in May, driven by surging gas prices from the Iran war.
washingtonpost.com
A very, very good summary. Note the points about China and defence spending but also read right to the end.
WorldTradeLaw.net@worldtradelaw.bsky.social · 2mo agoWhat To Expect from the USMCA Review?
Le PIB réel du Canada a reculé pendant deux trimestres consécutifs – ce qui correspond à la définition d'une récession technique – bien qu'un examen attentif des données dresse un tableau plus contrasté de l'économie, selon Statistique Canada. ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/fr/nouve...
Le Canada entre en récession technique | RCI
La croissance économique du pays a stagné au 1er trimestre et le PIB réel a affiché une légère baisse en rythme annualisé, selon Statistique Canada.
ici.radio-canada.ca
m.youtube.com/watch?v=3CN6... What will Premier Smith’s version sound like?
Cameron's Lament in C Minor
YouTube video by John Denno
m.youtube.com
Note: Canada is a far more decentralized federation than the US, so the exercise of power is always circumscribed by provincial counterparts.
Tom Nichols@radiofreetom.bsky.social · 3mo agoI used to tell my students that the PM of Canada had more power than a US president. They refused to believe it at first.