Jun Otsuka
@junotk.bsky.social
Philosopher of Science. The author of Thinking About Statistics (Routledge) and the Role of Mathematics in Evolutionary Theory (CUP). https://junotk.net/
Nice paper by Fan Zhu who challenges the trialist (data/probability/causality) ontology I proposed in my book, Thinking About Statistics. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Beyond trialist ontology: a sketch of causal modeling hierarchy - Synthese
Jun Otsuka’s trialist ontology posits the causal model as a third-layer entity representing inter-world laws. This paper challenges Otsuka’s framework by focusing on a key yet overlooked element, abdu...
link.springer.com
Really enjoyed giving a talk at the LMU Center for Advanced Studies, which is located in a lovely Munich neighborhood right in front of the house where Max Weber spent his later years. So excited to be staying here for the next month—no excuses for not being productive!
Center for Advanced Studies@caslmu.bsky.social · last mo.Many thanks to #CASFellow Jun Otsuka @junotk.bsky.social (Zen University) for his excellent talk about “Ontology and Symmetry of Statistical Models” and Young Center member Tom Sterkenburg for the great moderation. Jun Otsuka is a visiting fellow in the #CASResearchFocus Bayesian Reasoning.
Don't miss the #CASLunchTalk tomorrow! Jun Otsuka @junotk.bsky.social will talk about "Ontology and Symmetry of Statistical Models". @lmu-mcmp.bsky.social www.cas.lmu.de/en/events/ev...
Lunch Talk: Ontology and Symmetry of Statistical Models
Prof. Jun Otsuka, Ph.D. (CAS Fellow/Zen University, Japan) | Chair: Dr. Tom Sterkenburg (CAS Young Center/LMU)
cas.lmu.de
I'll visit the LMU Center for advanced studies from June 22 - July 17, and will give a talk on June 24. www.cas.lmu.de/en/events/ev...
Lunch Talk: Ontology and Symmetry of Statistical Models
Prof. Jun Otsuka, Ph.D. (CAS Fellow/Zen University, Japan) | Chair: Dr. Tom Sterkenburg (CAS Young Center/LMU)
cas.lmu.de
New on the Archive: Otsuka, Jun (2026) What Machine Learning Tells Us About the Mathematical Structure of Concepts. [Preprint] https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/29712/
Causal Discovery of Synchronous Neural Oscillations based on Jacobian-informed VAR-LiNGAM Hiroshi Yokoyama, Ryosuke Takeuchi, Shohei Shimizu bioRxiv 2026.04.28.721377; doi: doi.org/10.64898/202...
My article "What does it mean to understand AI?" is out now in Harvard Data Science Review! I discuss mechanistic interpretability, representation engineering, world models, and Potemkin understanding from philosophical perspectives. hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/w1tfg5lx...
What Does It Mean to Understand AI?
hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu
On April 24, there is an online workshop featuring emerging young philosophers in the Asian region. My PhD student Soto Michida will give a talk entitled "A Deep Learning Perspective on Teleosemantics." He is doing fantastic work. Check it out! docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Very nice by Jun Otsuka @junotk.bsky.social and Hayato Saigo: link.springer.com/article/10.1... about causal interventions/do calculus via string diagram surgery
"If you read only one book on the philosophy of statistics, make it this one. Otsuka’s compact yet comprehensive treatment (under 190 pages) provides a uniquely integrated view of the major statistical frameworks that shape modern data science and AI." crowintelligence.org/2025/03/19/s...
Statistical Thinking as Philosophy: Essential Readings – Part I. - Crow Intelligence
"Philosophy of science without history of science is empty; history of science without philosophy of science is blind." — Imre Lakatos Statistics isn't just a collection of mathematical techniques—it'...
crowintelligence.org
Our process causation paper is published in Synthese! We propose that process causation (a la Salmon, Dowe, MDC new mechanists) can be modeled using a category-theoretic framework. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
All titles of Cambridge Elements in the Philosophy of Biology, including mine The Role of Mathematics in Evolutionary Theory, are downloadable for free till the 25th. www.cambridge.org/core/element...
The Role of Mathematics in Evolutionary Theory
Cambridge Core - Philosophy of Science - The Role of Mathematics in Evolutionary Theory
cambridge.org
In Sendai where our fantastic host @junotk.bsky.social opens up the meeting of the Japanese Phil of Science Association (ita founding members include physicist Yukawa, I am told) and to these days includes lots of logicians and scientists alike. Excellent opening talk by @terumiyake.bsky.social
Packed day at the Japanese Phil Scie Association with brilliant talks by @junotk.bsky.social on rethinking the ontology associated with statistical models and Hanti Lin on realism and machine learning. Huge thanks to @junotk.bsky.social for stellar organisation and unrivalled hospitality. 💫
It was such a great honor to host Prof. Michela Massimi’s @michelamassimi.bsky.social special lecture at the Japanese Philosophy of Science Association. Her talk was truly inspiring for thinking about a more human-centered form of science—something much needed today.
A real joy to visit Taipei and to meet in person the incredible community of philosophers of science in South East Asia as well as hanging around with my old friend @sabinaleonelli.bsky.social and new colleagues too. Huge thanks to Karen Yan our wonderful host here 💫
Sabina Leonelli@sabinaleonelli.bsky.social · last yr.Impressive attendance at APPSA-LMPST conference in Taipei, where my fellow keynote @michelamassimi.bsky.social is presenting on local knowledge in coastal communities, consistent w my talk on prospects of empirical methods in an unequal, fragmented & AI-driven world appsa2025taiwan.mystrikingly.com
New article! Alan Love @mcps-philsci.bsky.social & I reflect on methodological & conceptual legacies of M. Abercrombie: quantitative measurement of cell behavior & concept of contact inhibition of locomotion. Published in @devbiol.bsky.social eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com?url=https%3A...
New paper out in Royal Society Open Science! In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian framework to model scientific practice as a whole, based on Taniguchi's theory of Collective Predictive Coding. (1/n) royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...
Collective predictive coding as model of science: formalizing scientific activities towards generative science | Royal Society Open Science
This article proposes a new conceptual framework called collective predictive coding as a model of science (CPC-MS) to formalize and understand scientific activities. Building on the idea of CPC originally developed to explain symbol emergence, CPC-MS ...
royalsocietypublishing.org
New preprint out! We use string diagrams to quantitatively model process causality (à la Salmon) and tackle issues like the Principle of Common Cause, explanatory irrelevance, and more—turns out process causation might be cooler than you thought. philsci-archive.pitt.edu/25367/
Modeling Causal Processes - PhilSci-Archive
philsci-archive.pitt.edu
Officially published in EJPS! Alan Love @mcps-philsci.bsky.social and I discuss two forms of generalization: evolutionarily conserved mechanisms involving specific types of entities and abstract principles that are instantiated by heterogeneous entities #philsci link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Précis of Thinking About Statistics rdcu.be/edlaK URL to the article: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Précis of Thinking About Statistics
rdcu.be
My book, Thinking About Statistics, got featured in Asian Journal of Philosophy! The book symposium hosts reviews by Elliott Sober, Jeanne Peijnenburg & David Atkinson, Hanti Lin, and Tung-Ying Wu, along with my reply. link.springer.com/collections/...
Book Symposium: Thinking about Statistics (Jun Otsuka)
Jun Otsuka’s book Thinking about Statistics (Routledge, 2023 ) bridges the gap between statistics and philosophy. It does this by delineating the conceptual ...
link.springer.com
Really enjoyed attending the Joint Mathematics Meetings special session on Categorical Generalizations of Conditionalization. We presented "a sheaf-theoretic reconstruction of statistical models", a joint work with Tatsuya Yoshii and Hayato Saigo.
I enjoy the clarity of the work. It establishes the derivation of the statistical tools in a way that made the mathematics much clearer to me. I began to feel like I was reading mathematical formulae like english sentences - in the way that mathematics is a language.
PSA Around the World 2025 🌍 Focus: Eastern & Central Europe. Call for Abstracts is now open! 🗓️ Deadline: March 31, 2025 💻 Fully online, Nov 6, 14, 22 $50 fee (waivers available). More info: www.philsci.org/psa_... 📄 Submit abstracts: psaatw25.sciencescon...
I’ll be speaking at the CIVICA DS Seminar on Oct 30! The registration link (below) lists an outdated title & abstract. The correct one is ‘Changing Ideals of Science in the Age of AI’, where I’ll discuss AI’s impact on what science should strive to be. socialdatascience.network/fall2024/ses...
CIVICA Data Science Seminar Series
Session 2 Fall 2024: What does it mean to understand AI?
socialdatascience.network
Forgot to share it here: a new paper coauthored with my student, where we solved the grue paradox using category-theoretic statistical modeling. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
A Categorical Solution to the Grue Paradox | The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science: Vol 0, No ja
journals.uchicago.edu
