Excited to share our work w/ @justinlessler.bsky.social, Trevor Bedford & Amanda Perofsky: doi.org/10.1098/rspb.... We investigate when sequence datasets are informative about between-group transmission, and how this depends on the relative pace of mutation, between-group transmission and sampling.

Seniors came to JD Vance's event to demand the Trump Administration stop cutting Social Security. JD's response: "Don't you all have jobs?"

Cutting off funding to the institution that INVENTED CPR definitely seems like a smart idea. How did no one ever think of this before?

Ran out of room to tag the original post #episky (read it to see @justinlessler.bsky.social on @npr.org describing the contagiousness of measles given different vax rates)

Wonderful explanation of contagion, reproductive numbers, & the reason #measles outbreaks *are* a big deal (courtesy of @npr.org & including insight from brilliant ID Epi @justinlessler.bsky.social): www.npr.org/sections/sho...

As the Texas outbreak grows, how contagious is measles, really?

Vaccination eliminated measles from the U.S. 25 years ago. But it can still spread in pockets where vaccination rates are low, like the west Texas county with a current outbreak. Here's how fast.

npr.org

DOGE By The Numbers theonion.com/doge-by...

“The Maryland National Guard must decline events which celebrates individuals based all or in part on immutable characteristics,” the memo said. Douglass was an abolitionist, suffragist, orator and author. That’s what we celebrate him. Let’s be clear: This bars celebrating him because he was Black.

Maryland National Guard out of Frederick Douglass parade after DoD order

Strict guidance from the national defense department crushed plans for a parade held in honor of Frederick Douglass’ 207th birthday because it was being held during Black History Month.

thebaltimorebanner.com

Goodnight friends. We end today with this quote for ourselves and for our new secretary of HHS.

✨PLEASE SHARE! CDC GUIDELINE ARCHIVES✨ ▶️STI GUIDELINES buff.ly/4jReLT4 buff.ly/3EmjR9B ▶️Medical Eligibility Criteria (MEC) for Contraceptives buff.ly/3PZzQNf buff.ly/4aKMEko ▶️VACCINE VIS buff.ly/4jJ1603 ▶️Others from @jessicavalenti.bsky.social LGBTQ CDCGuidelines.com #medsky #pedsky #IDsky 🛟🧪

Five years ago (Monday 30 Dec 2019), a turning point: the news of an outbreak in Wuhan spread on messaging apps, social media (Weibo, then Twitter), and got out of China, culminating with a ProMED alert sent to the international medical community on 30-31 Dec. ▫️1/

Flo Débarre@flodebarre.eurosky.social · 2y ago

Five years ago (Sunday 29 Dec 2019), four more patients with similar symptoms had arrived in Dr Zhang's department at Wuhan Xinhua Hospital. They were all linked to the Huanan market. Other Wuhan hospitals had also reported pneumonia cases to local CDCs; an epidemiological investigation started.

The studies informing stratified parameters in IDD models often have partitions (e.g age group) different from the model partitions. Most papers takes the median/mean estimates, but a correct solution exists: see this great paper/R pkg (C. Pearson, @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social @mert0248.bsky.social)

Justin Lessler@justinlessler.bsky.social · 2y ago

Congrats to team member Carl Pearson and his co-authors @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and @mert0248.bsky.social. An important tool for a pervasive problem in modeling infectious disease data www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

Congrats to team member Carl Pearson and his co-authors @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and @mert0248.bsky.social. An important tool for a pervasive problem in modeling infectious disease data www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

paramix : An R package for parameter discretisation in compartmental models, with application to calculating years of life lost

Compartmental infectious disease models are used to calculate disease transmission, estimate underlying rates, forecast future burden, and compare benefits across intervention scenarios. These models ...

medrxiv.org

Now is a great time to get flu & covid vaccines before holiday travel & parties lead to an uptick. Flu cases are rising. Covid deaths are down compared to other yrs *but still outnumber flu*. Re-sharing my piece on why vax, masks & tests are the best defense. kffhealthnews.org/news/article...

‘Emergency’ or Not, Covid Is Still Killing People. Here’s What Doctors Advise to Stay Safe. - KFF Health News

Thousands of people are still dying of covid, but government has mostly handed over responsibility to the people to weather the seasonal surges with their own strategies.

kffhealthnews.org

Note to journalists: important to communicate that the stated aim of GBD was to have a massive epidemic (immediately before vaccines became available), and also somehow keep it away from older population at higher risk (which would be about 25% of UK population if take age 60 as cutoff)

.@capublichealth.bsky.social reports finding #H5N1 #birdflu virus in raw milk. The producer, Raw Farm LLC of Fresno County, has agreed to recall a batch of a whole milk product called "cream top." Milk from infected cows contains staggering levels of virus. www.statnews.com/2024/04/29/b...

In a month of bad news, this one hits especially hard. Simon's Rock was an incredibly special place that changed my life. Early college at Bard will be no substitute. www.bard.edu/news/bard-ac... Chicken Fajita

Bard Academy and Bard College at Simon’s Rock Announce Relocation to Bard College in New York’s Hudson Valley

The Bard College Board of Trustees and the Bard College at Simon’s Rock Board of Overseers today jointly announced that Simon’s Rock will be relocating from its Great Barrington, MA, campus to a new c...

bard.edu

Our framework for combining standard epi models with an economic dynamic decision model is up on medRxiv! super flexible and excited to see where this project goes next www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

Modeling dynamic disease-behavior feedbacks for improved epidemic prediction and response

Human behavior significantly influences infectious disease transmission, yet traditional models often overlook this factor, limiting predictions of disease and the associated socioeconomic impacts. We...

medrxiv.org

We are hiring a postdoc to work on projects related to scenario modeling for public health with scenariomodelinghub.org. Apply at unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/288...

Here is analysis of HA mutations in H5 influenza case in Missouri resident without known contact w animals or raw milk. TLDR: there is one HA mutation that strongly affects antigenicity, and another that merits some further study.

Shigeichi Negishi, the inventor of the world's first commercially-available karaoke machine, has died in Japan. He was 100 years old.

Karaoke inventor Shigeichi Negishi dies at 100

Negishi was in his 40s when he came up with the idea of prototyping a mass-produced, coin-operated karaoke machine, branded "Sparko Box" in 1967.

npr.org

Excited to see our working out in The Lancet Infectious Diseases on the effectiveness of one dose of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) in DR Congo. One dose of OCV protects against clinical cholera for up to 24-36 mo www.thelancet.com/journals/lan... with @justinlessler.bsky.social @andrewazman.bsky.social

We are recruiting for Research Assistant Professor positions at UNC to work on projects aimed at making epidemic projections and analytics more accurate and more relevant to those who need them most. Consider applying to join our team! unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/270...

Excited our work evaluating covid19scenariomodelinghub.org is out in Nature Communications www.nature.com/articles/s41... , with an accompanying piece here theconversation.com/pooling-mult.... Kudos to the brilliant @emilyhowerton.bsky.social for leading this work, and the many other contributors.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertaint...

The US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub produced medium to long term projections based on different epidemic scenarios. In this study, the authors evaluate 14 rounds of projections by comparing them to ...

nature.com

Super excited that our ACCIDDA center at UNC was selected to be a Center of Innovation and the Coordination Center for the CDCs Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. With JHU, UF, APL and Pitt. sph.unc.edu/sph-news/unc...

AN IMMENSE WORLD is out in paperback in the US today! 🥳

Howdy all, I am an epidemiologist at the Rush Alzheimer’s Disease Center in Chicago. I got three kids, and the youngest two are turning 2 today. Big boys 🎂2️⃣

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub in the New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/02/health/covid-rise.html?smid=nytcore-android-share. Find out more about how things might unfold this fall at https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/

We are looking for postdocs. Check it out at: https://iddjobs.org/jobs/develop-innovative-approaches-to-forecasting-and-causal-inference-and-apply-those-methods-to-solve-real-world-problems-in-outbreak-response Closing soon

We are looking for postdocs. Check it out at: https://iddjobs.org/jobs/develop-innovative-approaches-to-forecasting-and-causal-inference-and-apply-those-methods-to-solve-real-world-problems-in-outbreak-response Closing soon