Not necessarily a tradable signal (FX tends to move before surprise indices respond), but euro area economic data releases are again outperforming expectations by more than their US equivalents:
Karl Schamotta
@karl-schamotta.bsky.social
Chief Market Strategist, Corpay by day. Nerd by night. Opinions expressed are solely my own and do not express the views or opinions of my employer.
Kinda love that @nicktimiraos.bsky.social now has two massive endorsements to put on his profile: Warren Buffett recommending his book, and Bessent bashing him personally. You really can't get clearer evidence of his skill, knowledge, and effectiveness than that.
Brad Setser (bafflingly not on here) has been singlehandedly jawboning the yuan higher /j
1. Would posit that after hundreds of attempts in recent decades, FX traders see interventions as short-term stabilisation tools, not capable of reversing currency trends on a sustained basis. The ‘shock and awe’ 90’s playbook is outdated. 2. Toby’s output is insanely strong and prodigious. Wow.
Toby Nangle@tobyn.bsky.social · 5h ago🚨 Remember when the US Treasury caused that major yen rally in ‘98? Us neither www.ft.com/content/5506...
Thought someone on here might know someone: we're looking to add a mid-level commodities analyst in our alternative products group (we do hedging for corporates/asset managers). They need to do analysis and write at a high level about rates, energy, metals, ag, etc (1/2)
This is indeed a shocking turn of events. The typical dentist-focused structured product is supposed to be knockout-based short vol structure aimed at a profession that is intrinsically long decay.
Metro North Capital@metronorthcapital.bsky.social · yesterdayI used to think that the German Dentists’ pension fund where the investment board consisted solely of dentists was the platonic ideal of a mark. No more. The Korean Dentist Who Loves Leveraged ETFs is the new apex. I shudder to think how much dogshit wall st trading desks can shovel into his maw
Reminiscent of earlier discussions on extending dollar swap lines. It was not immediately obvious why Gulf states with vast dollar holdings would need such facilities, but makes sense if the administration is deeply insecure about the strain being placed on Treasury markets. tinyurl.com/a68c26cs
Why Bessent Is Leaning on the Fed to Help Prop Up Japan’s Currency
The Treasury secretary wants the central bank to help by raising its $60 billion borrowing limit on an obscure lending program.
tinyurl.com
Trump: "Japan's been very good to us, with the exception, of course, of Pearl Harbor"
Reuters@reuters.com · 3d agoJapan to vow coordination with US on weak yen in historic battle reut.rs/4fBO98o
Just to illustrate the scale of Friday's US currency intervention (very small, relative to daily turnover):
Mexico now exports more hardware for data centres than it does cars - quite the reshaping of an economy... New, with Christine Murray www.ft.com/content/ac32...
Seriously folks. Bessent wrote himself a reminder to intervene in currency markets—complete with the amount to be purchased—as if he didn’t want to forget anything at the grocery store, and then left that note in plain sight so reporters could see it. Ludicrous! 🤯
Karl Schamotta@karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 5d agoThis has to be THE funniest thing I’ve ever seen in FX markets:
Yen’s up two and half big handles in the last hour, looking a lot like the US Treasury has joined the intervention fray, dropping a couple yards of USD and EUR on holiday-thinned markets:
Re-upping in light of this morning’s stronger than expected GDP print:
Karl Schamotta@karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 4w agoBy fuelling US consumer demand, starting wars, and jawboning the Canadian dollar down through trade threats, Trump is doing wonderful things for Canadian exports – they jumped 21.5% this May relative to the same month in 2024:
Signs of stabilisation in the Canadian economy, but still no sign of a sustained turnaround in CAD - today’s print generated a 5-pip roundtrip in FX markets:
Phil Smith@philsmith26.bsky.social · 5d agoWith 0.9% real growth (3.5% at annual rates), as reported by Statistics Canada today, the Canadian economy was steaming in 2026 Q2. #cdnecon
Burnham providing proof of good political instincts.
Financial Times@financialtimes.com · 5d agoBreaking news: UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has called on Gianni Infantino to be replaced over Fifa’s controversial plan to sell a stake in a new commercial entity, adding to pressure on the president of world football’s governing body after one of his top advisers quit. ft.trib.al/dHg0aCI
Just re-reading yesterday’s transcript and this question from @mckonomy.bsky.social again jumps out. Sums it up brilliantly:
BRB, writing a new children's book for 25 year olds:
Quantian@quantian.bsky.social · 6d agoJESUS H. CHRIST
Fair point. This should have come up in due diligence, clearly.
Five Minute Macro@fiveminutemacro.bsky.social · 6d agoI am not going to elaborate, but never give your money to kids who look like minor European royalty.
The GDP data were another reminder that a lot of America's AI boom leaks into the RoW via rising imports. Its like a huge fiscal stimulus with a really crap multiplier
Technology investment is playing a substantially bigger role in driving US growth than during the dotcom boom:
Warsh's ban on forward guidance is a legitimate policy choice. The problem is that his chosen justification for it is absolute nonsense.
