Karl Whelan
@karlwhelan.bsky.social
Professor of Economics, UCD. www.karlwhelan.com. Macroeconomics, also working on sports betting & prediction markets. My book, Fine Margins: How Economics Explains Sports Betting, is out soon. Substack: https://finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/
New York sues Kalshi, says prediction market is running 'illegal gambling operation'
New York sues Kalshi, says prediction market is running 'illegal gambling operation'
It comes after a federal judge earlier this month denied Kalshi's attempts to intervene against the state's Gaming Commission.
cnb.cx
On my Substack. The Balanced Book Myth: Bookmakers do not balance their books The story the internet tells everyone about how bookmakers set odds is wrong. It's wrong in theory. Wrong in practice. And now we have lots of data to show it. finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/the-balanc...
The Balanced Book Myth
Bookmakers do not balance their books
finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com
It's driving me insane. The govt spends £1.4 trillion a year. Borrowing estimates are often by tens of billions over a year. But we're supposed to imagine money is budgeted to the last penny.
Karl Whelan@karlwhelan.bsky.social · 2w agoChrist almighty. The British obsession with itemized “pay fors” for everything is insane. This is just really not how fiscal policy or government works anywhere functional.
But also as @karlwhelan.bsky.social has pointed out it's just preposterous that this amount of spending has to be rhetorically 'matched' by a reduction elsewhere! This is back-of-the-sofa money for a UK government.
This is equivalent to someone on the median salary in the UK explaining to their partner how they will cut other spending to buy something worth £14.
Karl Whelan@karlwhelan.bsky.social · 2w agoChrist almighty. The British obsession with itemized “pay fors” for everything is insane. This is just really not how fiscal policy or government works anywhere functional.
Christ almighty. The British obsession with itemized “pay fors” for everything is insane. This is just really not how fiscal policy or government works anywhere functional.
Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com · 2w agoNew UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham will use money allocated to helping poor countries deal with the worst impacts of climate change to fund a new cap on bus fares across England.
An economics research/consumer report mashup. One of the simplest questions you can ask when viewing a bookmaker's odds is what their expected profit percentage is. Lots of internet sites offer to answer this for you. But most of them do it wrong finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/i-tested-g...
I Tested Google’s Top Sportsbook Hold Calculators.
Most Got It Wrong.
finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com
My latest Substack post asks a practical question: Can you figure out the bookmaker's profit margin on a bet? It also provides links to spreadsheets that do these calculations for you. Many of the existing one that do this do it wrong. finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/how-to-cal...
Figuring Out the Bookmaker's Profit Margin
An explanation of an often misunderstood topic and two free calculators
finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com
On my Fine Margins Substack. Economics as the X-ray specs for seeing how sports betting really works. Cheesy analogy maybe but once it was in my head, I couldn't get it out, so it's in the book. finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com/p/economics-...
Economics As the Way to Understand Sports Betting
Economics as the X-ray specs for seeing how sports betting really works
finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com
A free resource that some people might find interesting. As well as my research, my forthcoming book stems fram a course "Economics of Betting Markets" that I have taught in recent years at UCD. The lecture notes are now freely available at www.karlwhelan.com/bettingmarke...
Economics of Sports Betting
How economics explains sports betting markets. This course presents theory to understand these markets and lots of new evidence on how they work in real life.
karlwhelan.com
Hi BlueSkyers. An announcement. My book Fine Margins: How Economics Explains Sports Betting will be released soon. I have set up a Substack and will be posting articles and other resources relating to the book. Subscribe free at finemarginskarlwhelan.substack.com
Not that anyone is asking me to but if I was a senior executive at a firm that generates revenues from the internet, I have would have someone come to work every day and try to order my product using every browser. Every day. Incredible how many sites only work on some browsers sometimes.
This has been the perfect story to enable disingenous people engaging in motivated reasoning. And to expose journalists who can't or won't do their research. - Racists in England and the US pretending NI has huge numbers of immigrants when the truth is opposite. www.rte.ie/news/politic...
Common Travel Area in focus in wake of Belfast attack
The Taoiseach has said the Common Travel Area needs to be managed as people will "endeavour to abuse it".
rte.ie
Per most recent figures, net migration to NI *over the past 22 years* has been ~62,000 people. Only 3% of Northern Ireland’s population currently belong to an ethnic minority. Pogroms in Belfast (as with Ballymena last year) are just gutter-level "One Is One Too Many" racism, and nothing else.
Table 4.19 from the same resource shows that only 3% of the NI's population were born outside Europe. And one in five of those are from the US, Canada and Australia. And this is the uncontrolled migration that has completely changed their communities. I guess they preferred it when it was 0%.
I see unionists in Northern Ireland are working again to bring a hard border back to Ireland by claiming they are being inundated with asylum seekers who came through the Republic. The truth is that the vast majority of the flows are in the other direction. www.rte.ie/news/2025/09...
'Very close' to 88% of IP applicants crossing NI border
Minister for Justice Jim O'Callaghan has said that "very close" to 87.66% of people claiming international protection are crossing the border from Northern Ireland before claiming asylum here.
rte.ie
I'm guessing working behind the scenes to make their hitters hit better is up there with asking forwards not to miss the target in soccer as a successful coaching strategy.
Alex Speier@alexspeier.bsky.social · 2mo agoThe Red Sox are 27-39. Only one team in baseball history (excluding the 1981 split season) has ever reached the playoffs after that bad a start: The 1914 Miracle Braves. These Sox do not appear primed for a miracle. www.bostonglobe.com/2026/06/10/s...
BBC News disgracing itself on anything to do with immigration.
Usual objections about changing the character of the neighbourhood. But perhaps the character of neighbourhoods like this -- close to retail facilities, a park and public transport (despite claims of the opposite) but incredibly low density -- should be changed? www.irishtimes.com/business/202...
Cairn Homes secures permission for 250 new units in Blackrock
Appeal from local residents concerned over density of accommodation in the area was rejected
irishtimes.com
My latest working paper. www.ucd.ie/economics/t4... Multi-leg bets (known as parlays in the US, and as accumulators or bet builders in Europe) are hugely popular, accounting for a high percentage of all the money placed with bookmakers.
I recently gave a talk on prediction markets at an NYU Stern online conference. Video is here www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIFd... I discussed my paper on Kalshi with Constantin Bürgi and Wanying Deng www.karlwhelan.com/Papers/Kalsh... and gave some "predictions about prediction markets"
2026 NYU Stern Fintech Conference: Karl Whelan on Prediction Markets
YouTube video by NYU Stern
youtube.com
Every time I submit to an Elsevier journal, at least 10 minutes are wasted on passwords, including from journals I never had any dealings with claiming I have an account because they're hallucinating from other Elsevier journals. Then the endless forms with information they already know about me.
I guess I was the only "expert" that told the Irish Times there was nothing here looked like money laundering. Publicly observable bets from crypto wallets that then get reversed back into the same wallets would be the world's least effective laundering scheme. www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
Investigation: Suspicious betting on Gerry Hutch in Dublin Central byelection
More than $1m wagered through controversial Polymarket platform
irishtimes.com
Somehow the internet decided I needed this product and emailed me ....Your 3-in-1 Shield Against Journal Desk Rejection. Ouch. I wonder could they figure out what "general interest" means so I could get a paper past the desk at the EJ and save the enormous fee! www.editage.com/services/des...
Desk Rejection Shield - Pre-Submission Checks to Avoid Desk Rejections
We ensure your manuscript meets journal guidelines, our Desk Rejection Shield provides fast pre-submission checks including plagiarism report and formatting changes to deliver a journal-ready manuscri...
editage.com
I'm thinking of getting a t-shirt that says Let me also view the truncated middle section
The VAT on school fees reference was the highlight for me.
Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · 4mo agoEverything about this story makes me feel faintly stressed. 1) Just accept where the market is and sell your home for c£700k. 2) For god's sake don't move into a smaller home on two floors, why do you want to do this again in 15-20 years? If you can't find a bungalow, this is what flats are for!
assuming everyone has already read this but if not: please be advised that the first time I read it I was at my desk at work and I had to go for a little walk halfway through because I thought I was about to die from quietly laughing
Bradford Pearson@bradfordpearson.bsky.social · 4mo agoon the 50th anniversary of the release of The Boys Are Back in Town I'm morally obligated to share my favorite story of all time
