Latin American Elections

@latamerelection.bsky.social

Associate Professor of Political Science Elections in Latin America: Campaigns, Voters, and Institutions: https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/elections-in-latin-america-9781538189030/

1️⃣ What explains electoral success in Mexico’s gubernatorial elections after the democratic transition? The key was not government performance, but the support of the incumbent governor. On average, candidates from the governor’s party were about 42% more likely to win. 🧵

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Costa Rica votes tomorrow. Rodrigo Chaves’s “heir,” Laura Fernández, will lead the pres. race – and may reach 40%, enough to avoid a runoff in 🇨🇷’s modified majority system. Watch the legislative assembly: if the PPSO wins a supermajority, changes to term limits seem likely.

"The ruler exercises his power without restraint... unencumbered by rules or by any commitment to an ideology or value system....[Norms are subverted by] arbitrary personal decisions of the ruler, which he does not feel constrained to justify in ideological terms."-Chehabi & Linz,Sultanistic Regimes

derek guy@dieworkwear.bsky.social · 7mo ago

amazing how the entire machine can pivot within 24 hours. no need to slowly upsell the argument; just issue new marching orders

Matt Walsh tweeted last year: "We've spent the last 25 years bringing "freedom" and "democracy" to countries around the globe while our own country has been systematically invaded and now our largest cities are run by foreigners and communists. If you want to know why I'm so avowedly non-interventionist, this is why."

Then he tweeted today: ""This is a war for oil!!!!!"

First of all, the "war" lasted like 90 minutes. Second, going to war to secure vital resources for your own people is totally legitimate. Why should we allow some third world communist shithole to control trillions of dollars worth of oil?"

There's little information to go on right now, but it seems likely that Machado's efforts to woo Trump may come to naught if the Trump admin is content to capture Maduro and do nothing to ensure a regime transition. Showing once again that sucking up to Trump is a fool's bargain.

Wow. 1. A remarkable operation by U.S. forces & failure of Venezuelan security forces (or someone inside gave up Maduro’s location?). 2. Glad to see Maduro go. 3. No one knows what happens next. Will U.S. just leave Venezuela to sort it out? Will Cabello and Padrino take power? 🤷‍♂️