Michael Paarlberg

@mpaarlberg.bsky.social

Associate professor of political science, Virginia Commonwealth University. Senior Fellow, Center for International Policy. Assoc. Fellow, Institute for Policy Studies. Formerly The Guardian & Latin America advisor, Bernie Sanders. 교포 michaelpaarlberg.org

3 things I think going on here: 1. Negative polarization 2. "Free trade with other countries" being read as internationalism. Neither party is actively pursuing FTAs, so trade not seen as a live threat 3. Continued shift of both Dem and DSA base from manufacturing to service and knowledge sectors

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · yesterday

DSA-aligned Democrats are now the most pro-free-trade voting bloc in the United States, in an incredible turn of events www.theargumentmag.com/p/who-suppor...

A graph showing whether voters support or oppose free trade by party identification, showing 54% of "Dems favorable to DSA" strongly support free trade agreements

What I think is wrong about the Vanderbilt declaration (as in both biased and counterproductive) is its assumption that scholarship would only be shoddy for political reasons. Why not just say “faculty have a duty to maintain scholarly standards,” period? And take action if they fall for any reason?

Text of the Vanderbilt declaration stating academic units will face reorganization if they fail to uphold scholarly standards for reasons of political bias

Much like 9/11 conspiracy theorists are the only people who believe the US government works as perfectly as it claims, Rubio is the only person who believes the Cuban government is as all powerful and influential as it claims.

Scott Horton@robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 3d ago

Marco Rubio says that Cuba is an "espionage super power" which poses a grave threat to the national security of the US. Actually no rational national security analyst believes this, and I doubt Rubio does either.

Relevant to the AAUP endorsement controversy: the value of union endorsements to candidates isn't so much delivering member votes but boots on the ground, and value to unions isn't so much changing candidates' minds but having access to them in office.

There are many arguments for why AAUP shouldn’t endorse candidates. But the debate reflects a confusion over what it is: is it a professional association, or a union? Unions endorse candidates. The pushback reflects that it isn’t seen as one, including by its prospective members.

The Pentagon is pushing the same line to Latin America that it gives to Europe: spend more on defense. But unlike in Latin America, there's an active war happening in Europe, and the US has a military alliance with those countries.

Elbridge Colby on the Opportunities of the “Donroe Doctrine”

The greater U.S. focus on the Western Hemisphere signals a “fundamental change” in the region, writes the U.S. Under Secretary of War for Policy in a guest op-ed.

americasquarterly.org

This (right wing party losing the domestic vote but winning thanks to the overseas vote) had previously only happened in Eastern Europe (Romania 2009, Moldova 2024). Now Latin America joins the phenomenon of unpopular politicians being saved by their anti communist diaspora.

Sanho Tree@sanho.bsky.social · last wk.

Unfun fact: Keiko Fujimori actually lost the vote inside Peru, but overseas Peruvian absentee votes put her over the top with the thinnest of margins. Never take your vote for granted!

The president of OPEIU (my former union) makes the interesting observation in FT that senior admins are having to do more work to clean up errors from AI work that’s being passed up to them. AI isn’t a uniformly labor saving tech.

Bild

An irony of the current discourse about standards of social science research is it reproduces the very shoddy practices it decries: confirmation bias, correlation-causation fallacy, ecological fallacy, over-generalization, cherry-picking anecdotal evidence, advocacy over empirics

Essay | Is It Time to ‘Liquidate’ the Study of Sociology?

Sociology has long been tasked with investigating society’s most pressing challenges. But these days, sociologists’ greatest obstacle may be themselves.

wsj.com

The chavista govt of Venezuela has joined the US in denouncing the ICC and announced plans to withdraw, using language of the left (ICC "has disproportionately concentrated its work on African and Latin American countries, to the detriment of the Global South") to uphold the US position.

Venezuela to exit International Criminal Court, accusing it of ‘bias’

Announcement comes as Venezuela has hewed close to Trump administration, who has pledged to'disable' international court.

aljazeera.com

When he was still popular, Ortega used to compulsively rig elections he knew he’d win. Imagine how unpopular you have to be to have total state control and worry about losing elections even if you rig them.

Ortega declara el fin de la alternancia en Nicaragua: “Aquí no volverá a haber elecciones” | CNN

El presidente de Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, borró de plano este domingo la posibilidad de realizar nuevas elecciones en el país.

cnnespanol.cnn.com

“Quietly eyeing” means deliberately leaking potential plans as a pressure tactic for more concessions from Cuban govt. Bay of Pigs style amphibious invasion is unlikely. Smash and grab Venezuela type raid is possible but still unlikely.

Jim LaPorta@jimlaporta.bsky.social · 3w ago

New from CBS News National Security team: As the U.S.-Iran war restarts following the collapse of the weeks-long ceasefire, senior Pentagon officials are also quietly eyeing another flashpoint much closer to home: Cuba. www.cbsnews.com/news/cuba-mi...

When I think of migrant political incorporation and resocialization, I think of my friend who was an anarcho punk who grew up in rural Virginia and then moved to Denmark and had an identity crisis when he realized the state works pretty well there