This Valentine's day meets us with cocoa prices at an all-time high While proper demand-supply decomposition would help assess the drivers, culprit doesn't seem high demand for heart-shaped chocolate boxes Instead, negative supply shocks like adverse weather or crop disease
Richard Clarida at @financialtimes.com asks: "How the US Federal Reserve is — and should be — thinking about tariffs and monetary policy"? Interesting perspective on the effect of growing trade (and broader) uncertainty www.ft.com/content/0e63...
Markets may be underestimating how much inflation will fall this year
It is not just tariffs that might affect growth but also trade uncertainty and the effects of the Trump policy agenda
ft.com
Some quick thoughts on the tariffs on steel & aluminum - key inputs for infrastructure, defense, manufacturing Concern: Foreign subsidies & interventions make US too dependent on imported steel & aluminum Goal: Promote domestic production But are tariffs best for this goal?
Mercosur itself is not a high quality trade agreement but this EU deal is just a reminder of how other countries are seeking to expand trade while the US moves in a different direction.... EU strikes blockbuster trade deal with Mercosur - on.ft.com/3OGPfkP via @FT
EU strikes blockbuster trade deal with Mercosur
Accord would create market of 700mn by dropping tariffs on more than 90% of goods
on.ft.com
Artificial Intelligence and Inflation Forecasts, now out at the FRB St. Louis Review, with @leibovicif.bsky.social www.stlouisfed.org/publications...
Artificial Intelligence and Inflation Forecasts
Analysis of large language models (LLMs) shows their potential to generate inflation forecasts at least as good as the most respected, but costlier, sources of inflation forecasts.
stlouisfed.org
New industrial Policy Observatory database (NIPO) tracked 2,500+ measures in 2023 alone. Important context for debates on trade fragmentation & economic security. 1/ www.globaltradealert.org/reports/112
Global Trade Alert: New Industrial Policy Observatory (NIPO)
Tracking Information On Industrial Policies Since 1 January 2023
globaltradealert.org
Hi #EconSky, I just set up this international trade research and policy starter pack Not sure how this works exactly, but please add/let me know of other trade research and policy people that I missed go.bsky.app/NghAP3m
Last revisions to the paper "Trade Deficits with Trade Wars" done: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... A thread in 7 tweets 1/7
Trade Wars with Trade Deficits
Trade imbalances significantly alter the welfare implications of tariffs. Using an illustrative model, we show that trade deficits enhance a country's ability t
papers.ssrn.com
