The St. Louis Fed is looking to recruit research economists with experience in monetary and fiscal policy modeling. Please apply if you work on these topics, or share with your network if you know of someone who does. Must be authorized to work in the US. rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/FRS/job/St-L...

Economist - Senior Economic Policy Advisor

Company Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is seeking research economists. The Division enjoys a strong international reputation (Economic...

rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com

1/ new paper w/ Pascal Paul and Juan Sanchez: Stabilization vs. Growth When firms in distress are saved, the economy may become more stable in the short run, at the cost of long-run growth. We study this trade-off in a model w/ fluctuations, endogenous growth, and heterog. firms

1/ New with Serdar Ozkan: using the St. Louis Fed DSGE model, we ask whether expectations of future AI-driven productivity gains can raise inflation today. We argue that they can, and that the Fed's response matters a lot. www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...

Can AI Optimism Raise Inflation? What a Standard Macro Model Says

This analysis finds optimism about future AI‑driven productivity can quickly lift output and inflation, and the outcome depends on the monetary policy response.

stlouisfed.org

Aumento de 400% no numero de cidadaos americanos a residir em Portugal desde 2020, no @wsj.com

St. Louis public libraries ahead of the curve, teaching children how to use Bloomberg terminals

Inflation regimes systematically affect the sign and size of public debt forecast errors - our latest On the Economy blog post www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...

Inflation and the Accuracy of Public Debt Forecasts

An analysis of public debt projections by the CBO examines how forecasting divergences can differ in a high-inflation versus a low-inflation environment.

stlouisfed.org

Friends, I'll make @mdenardi.bsky.social 's words my own: Let's make the 19th PEJ Annual Meeting in Aveiro a great one. 3-5 July 2026. Submit your papers and please extend the invitation to all your relevant contacts. All relevant details and further updates here: www.ua.pt/en/pej2026

Mariacristina De Nardi@mdenardi.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Please submit to this conference to help make it a great one! I will be there, together with Stéphane Bonhomme and Michèle Tertilt. 19th Annual Meeting of the Portuguese Economic Journal - Aveiro, 3-5 July 2026 Deadline: 15 March 2026 Website: lnkd.in/d6Dmdfx7

Taking a break from Claude Code

Small thing and took some time to get going, but seeing this made my day: one of my requests is now a Bill Proposal at the St. Louis City Board of Aldermen www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/c...

Another day in the collapse of the post-Cold War global order. I'll pour some bourbon and watch Ben-Hur.

NATO, 4 April 1979 - 17 January 2026

This is a US government official calling for any US citizens who dissent from his immigration policy preferences, and "get in the way" of federal officers, to be executed by being shot in the face. By "get in the way" he means: being present, unarmed, dissenting, & driving away, without attacking.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 7mo ago

Rep. Randy Fine: "It's time for Americans to say 'enough,' and if you get in the way of the government repelling a foreign invasion, you're gonna end up just like that lady did yesterday."

Feliz Natal!

Lamento muito que a família do @mfariacastro.bsky.social também esteja a passar por isto. É vergonhoso que Portugal demore mais de 1 ano a reconhecer a cidadania de filhos bebés de portugueses nascidos no estrangeiro expresso.pt/sociedade/20...

Atrasos do IRN deixam bebés de emigrantes sem pátria

Emigrantes aguardam mais de um ano para registar os filhos como portugueses. Durante a espera, não têm país nem documentos

expresso.pt

US retirement normalization following the COVID-19 pandemic via St. Louis Fed www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...

U.S. Retirement Normalization following the COVID-19 Pandemic

After surging when the COVID-19 pandemic began in the U.S., retirements have returned to their prepandemic trend. New research examines what caused this surge.

stlouisfed.org

New WP: "The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United States", with Julian Kozlowski and Jeremy Majerovitz 1/n

Ontem, na Antena 1, sobre o impacto das tarifas: www.rtp.pt/play/p1467/e...

Programa da Tarde

Bolsas: terceiro dia consecutivo em queda - 'Não se estava a contar que a política norte-americana fosse tão agressiva e generalizada a todos os pa

rtp.pt

When a stock's prices moves a lot, the NYSE halts trading in that stock for 30 minutes. On Monday March 17 (just tried an arbitrary Monday), there were 30 such circuit breakers triggered. Today, so far, 229! Feel liberated! www.nyse.com/trade-halt

Acho que ainda vou a tempo de me retratar de muito do que disse aqui ha quase exactamente 2 meses. Na altura supus que a aplicacao das tarifas seria muito mais "cirurgica": contida e racional. Penso que muitos outros supuseram o mesmo, a julgar pelas reaccao dos mercados.

Miguel Faria e Castro@mfariacastro.bsky.social · last yr.

Na Radio Observador a explicar as novas tarifas observador.pt/programas/a-...

Markets stopped falling today 🙏

Ao falar com malta portuguesa sobre política americana, choca-me que ainda haja quem veja os republicanos como uma coisa ali entre o PSD e o CDS quando faz já *uma década* (desde 2016) que são um Chega com laivos de PNR

This is the dumbest thing I read this week and trust me I read a lot of dumb things this week nationalpost.com/news/mark-ca...

Circling back on this…

What is the best outlet for a short paper that used to be a section of a longer paper (=same model and data), that makes a very clear point, but that got removed because it was not central to the original paper? Economics Letters? #econtwitter

JFK conspiracy theorist dies, goes to heaven. God receives him: "You may ask me one question." -"Who shot Kennedy?" God replies, "Lee Harvey Oswald shot him from 6th floor of the Texas School Book Depository. He acted alone". Theorist thinks: "This goes higher up than I thought!"

Sostiene Pereira

Beautiful edition of the spiritual sequel, got it second-hand from The Strand in NYC

Miguel Faria e Castro@mfariacastro.bsky.social · last yr.

Good thing I didn't read this during my Ph.D.

Good thing I didn't read this during my Ph.D.