1\ Russian net oil and gas revenue in July 2026: 934bn rub. Paid on JUNE activity, and includes quarterly profits. My guesstimate was closer than Reuters' ~1.2tr rub. A reasonable result given the Republicans' Iran war and its effect on oil prices. August projection ~700bn rub with a downside.

@leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h ago

1\ If I'm reading this right, Reuters projects huge July oil & gas tax revenues for Russia in July. We should find out this week. "Oil and gas tax ‌revenue ⁠for January to July is still likely to decline by 11% from the same period in 2025, to 4.9 billion roubles." I think they mean trillion...

The “logistics lockdown” continues: 200 kilometres is no distance for Ukraine’s Morrigan drones. In July alone, the 412th Nemesis Brigade destroyed or damaged nearly 500 Russian vehicles and around 400 motorcycles and military buggies. Many trucks and fuel tankers were hit deep behind the front.

I think this has been obvious for a decade. I thought Putin was evil even before 2022 and people said I was overreacting. It made them uncomfortable. Trump & his Republicans are cut from the same moral cloth. Again, people argue that can't be true. Why do we give so much credit to monsters?

Maria Drutska@mariadrutska.bsky.social · 6h ago

I'm genuinely starting to believe that Trump sees putin as a role model.

❗️16 people were killed and 36 injured in Russia’s attack on Kyiv and the Kyiv region. Russia also disabled NOVUS’s main logistics centre, forcing it to suspend operations completely. This hub supplied food and essential goods every day to NOVUS stores across Ukraine, serving millions of Ukrainians.

Die Zeit reports Russian intelligence planned to assassinate Stefan Thumann, head of German drone maker Donaustahl. German services thwarted the plot after allied countries warned them, and Thumann is now under increased protection. He has not attended trade fairs for security reasons. #Ukraine

1\ I often agree with Phillips and think he's a very important voice to follow. I do not fully agree here; Trump & the Republicans prefer dictatorships like Putin, but they prioritise themselves & their own oligarchs, and they are corrupt. They haven't done everything Putin would want.

Phillips OBrien@phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 15h ago

Man, if Putin had told Trump exactly what he wanted the US to do to help Iran and Russia and hurt Ukraine, it would have been exactly what Trump did in his war. This is a Russian strategic dream we are watching.

1\ Another estimate of the lost revenue from Ukraine's drone sanctions: Bloomberg showed refining down by 1.5-2m barrels/day vs normal. Actual cost depends on product, but something like $40/bbl seems reasonable. So missed export revenue of perhaps $1.8-2.4bn/month?

1\ If I'm reading this right, Reuters projects huge July oil & gas tax revenues for Russia in July. We should find out this week. "Oil and gas tax ‌revenue ⁠for January to July is still likely to decline by 11% from the same period in 2025, to 4.9 billion roubles." I think they mean trillion...

Wait, Republicans and their supporters told me that they weren't cutting aid to Ukraine to make Ukrainians die. It was because less money for war meant their would be peace. So I'm sure they now support cutting funding to the US military for peace. Right?

Phillips OBrien@phillipspobrien.bsky.social · yesterday

Latest piece: people often overlook one of the fundamental questions of war. How do you fund it. The Trump administration is actually facing real problems in each area (historically in one). Even if they wanted to escalate, they might not get the money for it. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Russian central bank repo "temporary money printing": 👉 4.3tr rub this week 👉 4.31tr rub last week 👉 6.21tr rub about a month ago. 👉 1.60tr rub about a year ago

Link is 2024 reporting "on the construction of the first marketplace distribution center in the Leningrad Region with an area of 154 thousand square meters with an investment volume of 9 billion rubles." Supposed to open late 2025. Not sure if that's multiple sites or just the one that's burning.

Первую очередь складов Wildberries в Красном Бору откроют в 2024 году

Подробнее на сайте

kommersant.ru

Ukraine War Brief Podcast@ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 2d ago

The facility in Krasny Bor is engulfed in flames.

There is a fire at the oil refinery in Syzran, Russia. 🔥

1\ Estimated Russian refiners' revenue loss to Ukraine's long-range sanctions: $0.9-4.8bn/month. Less money for Russians to murder Ukrainians with is always good news.

NOELREPORTS@noelreports.com · 2d ago

❗️Russian oil refining fell to 3.6 million barrels per day in July, down 150,000 bpd from June, according to Bloomberg. The report says this is Russia's lowest monthly refining rate since May 2002. For comparison, July 2021 averaged 5.59 million bpd. #Russia

1\ Russian govt data has ~5.5tr 2026 funding needs 👉 ~2.9tr rub borrowed so far in 2026 👉 They need ~137m rub/week to hit funding goal But: 👉 Reporting says borrowing plan will rise by 2-3tr rub 👉 So more like 240-300m rub/week now And 👉 The current budget implies funding needs could be ~10-11tr

Prune60@prune602.bsky.social · 2d ago

If the Russian Ministry of Finance doesn’t have an OFZ auction this week, then I think that will leave them with 19 potential auction days left in 2026. (They’re currently cancelled until further notice)

Yay, Russian 10-year bond yields back up to 15.80%. This says Russia should find it extremely expensive to borrow more money. Down vs last month, but still above the what Russia has been willing to pay this year. Bond auctions are paused, which generally reduces yields.

@leoskyview.bsky.social · 6d ago

1\ Grr, Russian 10-year bond yields continued to decline. 15.68%. This is roughly what "interest rate" Russia could borrow at if they issue 10-year bonds tomorrow. Fortunately, still above the 15.32% record Russia agreed to pay so far this year.

Attention: new original data source unlocked! Based on federal budget reports, I estimated the number of Russian troops in Ukraine, both mobilized and contract soldiers. The numbers are based on different salary top-ups that Russian troops in Ukraine receive. janiskluge.substack.com/p/the-compos...

Every month of delay helps Russia and hurts democracies.

WarTranslated (Dmitri)@wartranslated.bsky.social · 2d ago

An agreement between the US and Ukraine regarding a license for the production of Patriot system interceptors will not be concluded before this winter, according to US Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker.

Looks like this picture is an AI fake. Funny, but fake. Source; BBC Verify. www.bbc.com/news/live/c7...

Russia says six killed and 40 injured by Ukrainian drone hitting beach - live updates

It's not clear if the drone was intercepted before landing on the beach in Krasnodar Krai, south-west Russia, close to Russian-occupied Crimea.

bbc.com

Another Ukrainian formation claims around 1:1 wounded:killed ratio inflicted on the Russians

The hedgehog@the-hedgehog.bsky.social · 2d ago

"More than 4,000 Russian targets destroyed and over 900 casualties: Third Army Corps weekly summary. Over the past week, units of Ukraine's Third Army Corps reported killing 484 Russian troops and wounding another 437. They also reported destroying 3,585 UAVs...

TOR-M2 anti-aircraft missile system – village of Yeisk NEBO-S radar – Yeisk NEBO-U radar – city of Primorsko-Akhtarsk GAMMA-S1M radar – Yeisk NEBO-SV radar – Yeisk KASTA-2E2 radar – village of Kamyshevatskaya 37T radar – village of Prigibsky KASTA-2E2 radar – village of Shabel'skoye

The Conversion Problem Ukraine and Russia are making the same category of mistake, just with opposite raw materials. Ukraine has technology as a compensatory advantage. Russia has scale as a compensatory advantage.

Some additional footage from the strike on the Wildberries in Novoselkinо. Long thread. Looks like it is 30 parts.

1\ Uh oh. 40% of Hungary's power output to be cut as heat & drought force shutdown of nuke plant. Thankfully, Hungary installed a lot of solar power already, but they could definitely do with far more solar and batteries.

Hungary braces for a full shutdown of the Paks nuclear plant as the Danube River hits record lows

Hungary's only nuclear power plant is shutting down for the first time due to record-low water levels on the Danube River.

apnews.com

1\ We should always be cautious with "profit" figures. They can be massaged by accountants and depend heavily on CEO incentives. e.g. if Rostec wants higher payments from the Russian state, they could make accounting moves to cut profit and say: "look, we clearly need higher prices!" etc.

The hedgehog@the-hedgehog.bsky.social · 3d ago

militarnyi.com/en/news/net-...

A strike drone flies directly over the Russian mobile fire group escorting the convoy before slamming into a fuel tanker and turning it into a fireball.

🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social · 3d ago

🔥Today, a Russian convoy of fuel tankers, escorted by mobile fire groups, was tracked and struck by Birds of Magyar unit while travelling along the land logistics corridor to occupied Crimea.

Amid a shortage of interceptors russia launched a record number of Iskander-M, S-400, and KN-23 ballistic missiles against Ukraine in July 🟢 January – 74 🟢 February – 116 🟢 March – 39 🟢 April – 50 🟢 May – 86 🟢 June – 96 🟢 July – 126 t.me/oko_gora/20152

Republicans cut funding to Ukraine to reduce Ukrainian capacity, make Ukrainians die and save Putin's war machine. Don't just believe their words, look at their actions. The Republicans did what they could to help Putin continue his war. It is disgusting that they pretend they want peace.

NOELREPORTS@noelreports.com · 3d ago

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russia has altered the conflict's dynamics in recent months. He said Washington is prepared to assess whether this shift has opened a path toward a negotiated settlement. #Ukraine

The Financial Times wrote an article the growing effort to exhume fallen Ukrainian soldiers from cemeteries in frontline cities threatened by Russian advances. Families are reburial their relatives farther west to prevent graves from being damaged or occupied. www.ft.com/content/1d75...

Even Ukraine’s dead must flee the Russian advance

Fallen Ukrainian fighters are being reburied hundreds of miles from where they died

ft.com

1\ Russian budget tables should be updated for July in the next 2-3 weeks. In addition to the headline federal deficit, I'm going to look at these things. I think they all matter; 👉 oil&gas: non-MET adjustments, especially refinery subsidies 👉 oil&gas: quarterly profit taxes

Republicans cut aid to Ukraine. They are responsible for preventing peace by saving Putin's army and making more Ukrainians die. It is disgusting to watch them lie to our faces and pretend they want peace. No; they're upset that the democracy won't just surrender. They hate democracies

NOELREPORTS@noelreports.com · 4d ago

US Secretary of State Rubio said Washington will try in the coming weeks to restart negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and seek an end to the war. He said both sides have clearly defined red lines and warned that no breakthrough is likely until their positions move closer together. #Ukraine