Lou Mannheim
@loumannheim87.bsky.social
CIO of the cookie cabinet. Not Jon Hamm. Wants to be Lou Mannheim. Probably needs coffee.
David Ellison wrote a NYT oped today, defending the Warner Bros merger. Maybe I'm biased. But 20% seems like a lot to me!
$MSFT... crazy 3 days in microsoft. but not unusual. it had big 3 day gaps up in mid-April and late-May. neither of which ended great.
Manufacturing PMI at a four-year high in July. Big winners sound like computing and aerospace.
The semi/software unwind continues! Maybe it wasnt just Leopold who was caught with his pants down...?
This interview with head of NY Fed is arguably more important than Warsh's press conference. It's the first we've heard from someone in the "pause camp" other than Warsh.
Michael Derby@michaelsderby.bsky.social · 3d agoHere’s the full text of my interview with NY Fed Williams. We talk monetary policy, how he responds to market price signals, the inflation outlook and bubble risks in AI.
Kevin Warsh - Fear The Bond! "If you're not going to tell us how you're going to do it, we're not going to believe you. And you cannot fool the bond. You cannot do it. The bond will see through it." - Mark Cabana, Head of US Rates Strategy, Bank of America, on @bloombergtv.bsky.social .
Reviewing earnings estimates. AI-related earnings are up, up, and away. For the top 30 stocks, sales estimates score 4.4 (out of 5) on average. So... what? Is it that easy? Are we set up for an easy second half rally?
Treasury started issuing 30y TIPS in early 2000s. Before that you had figure out reals by backing out inflation projections. Here is my attempt at doing that using economists inflation forecasts
Everyone at the rehearsal dinner when Leopold walks in
Tom Brady's Charming Smile
ALT: Tom Brady's Charming Smile
static.klipy.com
"What I have heard from across the Fourth Federal Reserve District reinforces this view: Businesses describe pricing pressures as broadening rather than fading" www.clevelandfed.org/collections/...
Statement from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Beth Hammack regarding her vote at the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 28–29 meeting
Statement from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Beth Hammack regarding her vote at the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 28–29 meeting.
clevelandfed.org
A few weeks ago I asked: "2% of what?" This week Warsh answered. PCE now, but maybe not for long. His winding answer raised more questions about his credibility; markets agreed. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/warsh-were...
Warsh: "We're Sticking With It" ... Until January
This week, Warsh affirmed PCE inflation as the Fed's target, then put that yardstick on the chopping block.
stayathomemacro.substack.com
Pound-for-pound, Melissa Lee has to be the most valuable CNBC anchor.
Look at that orange dotted line. That's Q/Q annualized inflation in the PCE. That's what the Fed looks at. The 2Q rate was 3.4% excluding food and energy. That's higher than 2...
Worth noting. 9 other FOMC members (including Powell) agreed with Warsh to hold on rates. The problem was his delivery of the message in the press conference.
If you invested $10,000 in Tesla $TSLA exactly 4 years ago, you would have $10,000 today 🚨 🚨 Not too bad 🤑
30yr REAL treasury yields at multi-decade high (courtesy of the wonderful and talented @jc-econ.bsky.social)
Wild chart. NDX has given up its YTD outperformance
Great article about China oil demand in WSJ today. This is the reason that oil didnt go to $200. www.wsj.com/business/ene...
