lukas-fock.bsky.social

@lukas-fock.bsky.social

Social media discourse is driven by false #polarization We find that: 1) ideologues post opinions more than moderates 2) extreme attitudes are posted more than moderate one 3) This replicates in 40 countries 4) Opinions that users post are more hostile than the beliefs they keep to themselves

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"This often implies that what counts as knowledge today will reveal itself tomorrow as an error of the past." This latency keeps #science from acting like an individual. Overturning the status quo consensus is quite difficult, usually more difficult the longer those past errors were believed.

Mark Rubin@markrubin.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Hans-Jörg Rheinberger (2026) considers "unanticipated ignorance" in science. "It is an ignorance that we did not know about, one that we were not able to guess unless experimentation confronted us with it." doi.org/10.1007/978-...

Abstract My paper will explore the function of ignorance and error in the scientific research process. Scientific knowledge, as a particular form among many other forms of knowledge, can even be characterized by its attitude toward ignorance and error. The ground-laying epistemic feature of research consists in gaining knowledge about aspects of the world of which the actual knowledge is either scarce or absent altogether. “Specified ignorance,” as discussed by Robert Merton, is a state of affairs where the black spot of ignorance can be pinpointed. But research is also characterized by a kind of ignorance that we can address as “unspecified,” or “nonanticipated,” that is, by ignoring what one does not know. This often implies that what counts as knowledge today will reveal itself tomorrow as an error of the past. I will especially focus on the latter form of ignorance and present a few historical examples from the life sciences of the twentieth century.

"Theories can make more or less correct assumptions and can provide a more or less complete description of a phenomenon. [...] as scientists, our concern should not be whether or not we are under illusion, but to what extent our beliefs mismatch reality." Very interesting and concise pre-print!

Mark Rubin@markrubin.bsky.social · 4mo ago

"No theory provides a perfect account of the world, so the only way to avoid the illusion of knowledge is to avoid theory. However, a lack of theory leads to a lack of explanations that is disorienting and stifles progress." By Stefan, Pirrone, & @nathanjevans.bsky.social osf.io/preprints/ps...

While we agree with the general argument of Shiffrin and colleagues (2026) that scientists fall prey to the illusion of knowledge, we disagree with their argument that illusions present a fundamental problem for science. We argue that theory cannot exist without illusion, and therefore, our goal should not be to avoid illusions, but to create the best illusions possible. Specifically, we argue that many known illusions provide utility for both science and real-world applications, that attempting to dispel illusions is a fundamental aspect of science, and that illusions only become problematic when scientists become complacent and no longer seek to improve understanding. We conclude that researchers should continue to utilise the scientific method to understand what theories can, cannot, and should not predict, thus dispelling illusions through progressive research programs.

1/ We've been measuring intellectual humility wrong. Most scales ask "are you intellectually humble?" but the people least humble are the most miscalibrated about it. They overclaim. The #humilityparadox. Out today in Behavior Research Methods. Here's what we did instead. 🧵

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New publication 📄 "Little change in a changing landscape: Tracking exposure to untrustworthy news in Germany from 2017 to 2024". So far, my shortest paper - and the first with @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social! Read our brief description of news web browsing @journalqd.bsky.social

Little change in a changing landscape: Tracking exposure to untrustworthy news in Germany from 2017 to 2024. | Journal of Quantitative Description: Digital Media

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