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Luuk Schmitz

@luukschmitz.bsky.social

Senior researcher @mpifg.bsky.social (previously @eui-eu.bsky.social). Studying geoeconomics, multinational corporations, industrial policy, and EU strategic autonomy. https://luukschmitz.com/

49 Posts1141 Follower474 Folgt
Jonas Nahm@jonasnahm.com · 3mo ago

1/ New piece on the NEIS Center Substack by @luukschmitz.bsky.social: conditionality in industrial policy isn't just a safeguard against waste — it also has real costs. And those costs are systematically underweighted in the current debate. neiscenter.substack.com/p/industrial...

Industrial Policy Conditionality: A Guide for Users

Public debate treats conditionality as a single dial to be turned up or down to impose stricter discipline on private actors. That framing obscures the choices that actually matter.

neiscenter.substack.com

Luuk Schmitz@luukschmitz.bsky.social · 5mo ago

War is reshaping global markets. I have a paper under review that asks: who wins or loses when supply chains meet geopolitics, and what are the political implications? Since the world is changing faster than our overburdened peer-review system can handle, here's the 📃 + a🧵 osf.io/preprints/so...

As states weaponize supply chains, warnings of deglobalization and aggregate welfare losses have proliferated. But neither has materialized: trade volumes remain high and supply chains continue to span the globe. This paper argues that the surprising resilience of aggregate trade obscures a large-scale redistribution creating K-shaped divergence among firms navigating geoeconomic reordering. Who wins and who loses depends on two dimensions of corporate power: the strategic indispensability of what firms produce and their organizational capacity to reconfigure operations around geopolitical constraints. Because strategic designation attaches to specific outputs rather than broad industry categories, these capacities vary sharply among firms nominally facing identical pressures. Drawing on an original dataset of over 21,000 corporate earnings calls annotated using large language models alongside firm-level financial data, I demonstrate that sector membership explains remarkably little outcome variance. Adaptation operates hierarchically within industries, not between them. Firms controlling chokepoints or possessing reconfiguration capacity capture concentrated gains; those lacking strategic position bear recurring adjustment costs. As these costs cluster in regions previously affected by deindustrialization, supply chain restructuring risks intensifying the geographic polarization that fueled political demand for economic statecraft in the first place.
Luuk Schmitz@luukschmitz.bsky.social · 5mo ago

War is reshaping global markets. I have a paper under review that asks: who wins or loses when supply chains meet geopolitics, and what are the political implications? Since the world is changing faster than our overburdened peer-review system can handle, here's the 📃 + a🧵 osf.io/preprints/so...

As states weaponize supply chains, warnings of deglobalization and aggregate welfare losses have proliferated. But neither has materialized: trade volumes remain high and supply chains continue to span the globe. This paper argues that the surprising resilience of aggregate trade obscures a large-scale redistribution creating K-shaped divergence among firms navigating geoeconomic reordering. Who wins and who loses depends on two dimensions of corporate power: the strategic indispensability of what firms produce and their organizational capacity to reconfigure operations around geopolitical constraints. Because strategic designation attaches to specific outputs rather than broad industry categories, these capacities vary sharply among firms nominally facing identical pressures. Drawing on an original dataset of over 21,000 corporate earnings calls annotated using large language models alongside firm-level financial data, I demonstrate that sector membership explains remarkably little outcome variance. Adaptation operates hierarchically within industries, not between them. Firms controlling chokepoints or possessing reconfiguration capacity capture concentrated gains; those lacking strategic position bear recurring adjustment costs. As these costs cluster in regions previously affected by deindustrialization, supply chain restructuring risks intensifying the geographic polarization that fueled political demand for economic statecraft in the first place.
Luuk Schmitz@luukschmitz.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Speaking from experience, this is a great opportunity for feedback and exposure for PhD researchers!

Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung (MPIfG)@mpifg.bsky.social · 8mo ago

📣 Call for Abstracts! Join the 4th Doctoral Conference on the Social and Political Constitution of the Economy, March 19 -20, 2026 at the MPIfG in Cologne. 🎓 We welcome abstracts by doctoral researchers in economic sociology, political economy and related fields by Dec 8, 2025. s.gwdg.de/U27NQb

Luuk Schmitz@luukschmitz.bsky.social · last yr.

I'm not normally one for doomposting, but today's politics feel like the 1890s (robber barons), 1930s (rising fascism, appeasing autocrats), and 1970s (stagflation, new general purpose technologies) are merging into one ugly timelime.

Luuk Schmitz@luukschmitz.bsky.social · last yr.

Very thrilled and more than a little humbled with this! Thank you to the jury and the editors, and to my co-author☺️

JEPP Journal@jeppjournal.bsky.social · last yr.

🥁 And the JEPP Best Paper Prize 2024 goes to... 🥁 @timoseidl.bsky.social‬ and @luukschmitz.bsky.social for their paper 'Moving on to not fall behind? Technological sovereignty and the ‘geo-dirigiste’ turn in EU industrial policy' 🎉 Read the jury statement 👇 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Luuk Schmitz@luukschmitz.bsky.social · last yr.

The really important fine print in today's tariff announcement: if companies can prove that the material origin of their goods is within the value chain definitions of the USMCA, their trade is exempt from tariffs. Make Mexico and Canada great again?

Exceptions to the Trump tariffs announced today.
Joshua Cova@joshcova.bsky.social · last yr.

Happy to introduce ItaParlCorpus: a large, annotated, machine-readable dataset of Italian parliamentary speeches 🇮🇹📊. Covering 1948-2022, it includes 2.4M speeches, 470M words from 5830 speakers across 77 parties. Ideal for studying political discourse, party rhetoric and parliamentary behavior! 🔍📖

cambridge.org

Luuk Schmitz@luukschmitz.bsky.social · last yr.

Planning the green transition is not only about creating new industries, but also about phasing-out old ones. If you want to know how political backlash against impending economic decline and regional inequalities led to new policies and institutions for transition planning in the EU, have a look👇

Regulation & Governance@reggovjournal.bsky.social · last yr.

#Earlyview #Openaccess 'Picking Losers: Climate Change and Managed Decline in the European Union' by @trgn.bsky.social & @luukschmitz.bsky.social #Climatechange #industrialpolicy #RegGov #EU Abstract below 👇 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

ABSTRACT Decarbonization forces societies to cope with the restructuring and outright unwinding of assets, firms, workers, industries, and regions. We argue that this problem has created legitimacy for industrial policies managing the reallocation of resources. We illustrate this dynamic by documenting incremental state-building in the European Union, an administration institutionally tilted toward regulatory statehood and the making of the Single Market in energy since the 1990s. European greening policies, we argue, have incrementally lessened the primacy of regulatory tools and have introduced a plethora of instruments to accelerate green restructuring and carbon unwinding. Best understood as a process of multi-sited institutional layering, the European Union increasingly appears to complement financial and regulatory instruments to effect green energy transitions with the management of decline in targeted regions and sectors, based on targeted funds and targeted transition planning.
Kate McNamara@katemcnamara.bsky.social · last yr.

Terrific & much needed deep empirical analysis of new EU industrial policy state aid tool by @timoseidl.bsky.social & @luukschmitz.bsky.social. The key goldilocks punch line? Critical policy goals best achieved with ‘just the right’ amount of EU conditionality rules.

Timo Seidl@timoseidl.bsky.social · last yr.

IPCEIs have recently emerged as a key tool in the EU's fast-growing industrial policy toolbox. In a new paper in Competition & Change, @luukschmitz.bsky.social, @tobiaswuttke.bsky.social and I take a closer look at how this instrument works on the ground. A short thread (link to the paper below)👇

Luuk Schmitz@luukschmitz.bsky.social · last yr.

If you want to understand how EU industrial policy works on the ground, have a look at this thread and the new paper it links to.

Timo Seidl@timoseidl.bsky.social · last yr.

IPCEIs have recently emerged as a key tool in the EU's fast-growing industrial policy toolbox. In a new paper in Competition & Change, @luukschmitz.bsky.social, @tobiaswuttke.bsky.social and I take a closer look at how this instrument works on the ground. A short thread (link to the paper below)👇

Timo Seidl@timoseidl.bsky.social · 2y ago

Given the spike in activity on here (finally!), it might be a good moment to repost two recent working papers on the governance and history of the 'poster child' of the EU's new industrial policy: the Important Projects of Common European Interest or IPCEIs. Links 👇

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Timo Seidl@timoseidl.bsky.social · 2y ago

🚨New LUHNIP Policy Brief with @luukschmitz.bsky.social & T. Wuttke in which we summarize key findings from our recent paper on the 'Costs of Conditionality' and elaborate & expand on our policy suggestions. 🔗https://leap.luiss.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LUHNIP-PB2.24-Costs_of_conditionality.pdf

Timo Seidl@timoseidl.bsky.social · 2y ago

🚨 New working paper with @luukschmitz.bsky.social & Tobias Wuttke. To better understand how EU industrial policy actually works, we take an in-depth look at the governance of Important Projects of Common European Interest. Questions and comments welcome! 🔗 osf.io/preprints/os...