Mackenzie Lockhart
@maclockhart.bsky.social
Former Yale Postdoc, UCSD PhD. Studying elections, voters, and representation. Occasional runner, even more occasional swimmer. www.maclockhart.com
In the pre-1960s South, which Supreme Court Republicans have just brought back from the dead, Black citizens have no voice in federal lawmaking. (@jacobhacker.bsky.social, Zoli Hajnal, @markarianga.bsky.social and @maclockhart.bsky.social, @prospect.org) prospect.org/2026/06/03/r...
The Return of the Dixiecrat South - The American Prospect
In the pre-1960s South, which Supreme Court Republicans have just brought back from the dead, Blacks have no voice in federal lawmaking.
prospect.org
The conservative SCOTUS majority just gutted the VRA. The obvious consequence: fewer Black legislators. The less obvious one: Black voters in the South losing the mechanism that made Congress actually vote their way. @prospect.org with Zoli Hajnal @markarianga.bsky.social @maclockhart.bsky.social
The American Prospect@prospect.org · 2mo agoMillions of voters of color will no longer be able to elect a representative of their choice. But what’s at stake is far bigger: whether voters of color can elect legislators whose votes actually reflect their policy preferences. prospect.org?p=139239
⚖️ Do major campaign scandals change voters’ minds? ➡️ @maclockhart.bsky.social G. Huber, A. Gerber, J. Walker II show Donald Trump’s felony conviction had virtually no effect on his supporters, while common survey methods produce conflicting estimates www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
#OpenAccess from @psrm.bsky.social - Measuring the effects of campaign events: Specifying and comparing estimates of the effect of Trump’s conviction - https://cup.org/42MQUMO - @maclockhart.bsky.social, Gregory A. Huber, Alan S. Gerber & Jack D. Walker II #FirstView
From our FirstView: Race, Responsiveness, and Representation in U.S. Lawmaking by G. AGUSTIN MARKARIAN, @jacobhacker.bsky.social , @maclockhart.bsky.social and ZOLTAN HAJNAL. doi.org/10.1017/S000...
🚨 New paper out at @ajpseditor.bsky.social 🚨 Do the public hold meaningful attitudes? Using the case of abortion policy preferences, we provide strong evidence that policy prefrences can be coherent, stable over time, and causally explain vote choice. doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
This is an important paper at @apsrjournal.bsky.social. It's not exactly surprising that racism undermines effective representation, but it is well and carefully done. Congrats to @markarianga.bsky.social, @jacobhacker.bsky.social, @maclockhart.bsky.social, and Hajnal doi.org/10.1017/S000...
Check out this great thread on our latest work out now in the APSR!
Jacob Hacker@jacobhacker.bsky.social · 9mo agoIs national policy more responsive to the preferences of white Americans than to those of people of color? When Republicans control the presidency and/or the Senate, yes. White voters are more likely to see legislation they support become law than are Black, Latino, or Asian American voters.
Our new @apsrjournal.bsky.social is out! We study whether policy and congresspeople are more responsive to White Americans than racial minorities, matching individual level opinion to policy outcomes and roll call votes on 134 issues using 500K survey responses from 2016-2022. 1/n
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 9mo ago#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social - Race, Responsiveness, and Representation in U.S. Lawmaking - https://cup.org/47BDxm1 - G. AGUSTIN MARKARIAN, @jacobhacker.bsky.social, @maclockhart.bsky.social & ZOLTAN HAJNAL #FirstView
Honoured to see our work recognized in this way. The project started in my first year of graduate school, so I’m glad to see the many, many hours we put in were worth it.
Political Analysis@polanalysis.bsky.social · 12mo agoWe are pleased to announce the 2025 Editors’ Choice Award for the paper “How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on 67 Replicated Studies” by @apoorvalal.com, @maclockhart.bsky.social, @yiqingxu.bsky.social, and @garyzu.bsky.social.
Two paper rejections in one day! I think it's a sign I should log off my email to make sure it doesn't hit 3.
From February 2025 - Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? - cup.org/433kRJP - @jengaudette.bsky.social, @sethjhill.bsky.social, Thad Kousser, @maclockhart.bsky.social & Mindy Romero #OpenAccess
With the Canadian election looming, are you wondering about how provincial politics might affect the federal outcome? Our pre-print shows where you should expect to see provincial politics bleed over the most (spoiler alert - the answer is Quebec!)
Mackenzie Lockhart@maclockhart.bsky.social · last yr.New pre-print out with Alex Rivard ( @sfufass.bsky.social): "I’m a Federal Sovereigntist but a Provincial Nationalist: Party Identification in a Multi-Level Westminster Democracy" Ever wondered how voters handle partisan identity at levels besides the national government?
New pre-print out with Alex Rivard ( @sfufass.bsky.social): "I’m a Federal Sovereigntist but a Provincial Nationalist: Party Identification in a Multi-Level Westminster Democracy" Ever wondered how voters handle partisan identity at levels besides the national government?
Did I promise myself not to take on any new projects? Yes. Did I take on a new project because I promised myself it was a teenie tiny little itty bitty project? Also yes. Is it going to end up being a teenie tiny little itty bitty project? I plead the fifth.
I happily subscribed to the WaPo for their news coverage and stayed subscribed through many editorials I disagreed with because I believe in paying for journalism. But an editorial page with an official point of view is not something I need to fund. I’ll take my subscription dollars elsewhere.
Ben Mullin@benmullin.bsky.social · last yr.SCOOP: WaPo Opinion editor David Shipley is out. Jeff Bezos emails staff about a change to Post Opinions: "We are going to be writing every day in support and defense of two pillars: personal liberties and free markets."
NEW - Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? - cup.org/433kRJP - @jengaudette.bsky.social, @sethjhill.bsky.social, Thad Kousser, @maclockhart.bsky.social & Mindy Romero
🚨 New paper out at @bjpols.bsky.social 🚨 Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? Yes! We show, using large national and state specific survey experiments, that public information campaigns from election officials work.
🚨 New paper out at @bjpols.bsky.social 🚨 Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? Yes! We show, using large national and state specific survey experiments, that public information campaigns from election officials work.
The executive branch does not have the legal right to cancel appropriated spending or eliminate agencies created by Congress. Trump and Musk are doing both. Entirely lawless and unconstitutional. The world's largest provider of food assistance shut down. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
![“I went over it with him in detail, and he agreed that we should shut it down,” Musk said. “And I actually checked with him a few times [and] said ‘are you sure?’”
The answer was yes, he said.
“And so we’re shutting it down,” Musk said.
USAID staffers were told that the agency’s headquarters in Washington will be closed Monday amid the turmoil.
In an email to staff early Monday, the agency’s leadership said: “Agency personnel normally assigned to work at USAID headquarters will work remotely … with the exception of personnel with essential on-site and building maintenance functions individually contacted by senior leadership.”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2rrp7amblhg3xoly5n5huiqv/bafkreihfrxbqqzx6xoeoudgfglj52il2ts26n2dkmxhq6ulwdbt7thegzy)
I’ve started getting some pretty aggressive online advertising for Botox recently, and now I’m really curious which algorithm thinks I look old.
I have a giant pop, a chair that is weirdly capable of shaking, and am about to watch a new Lord of the Rings movie in theatres. It doesn’t get better than this.
@maclockhart.bsky.social presents his evidence of the impact of declining local news on primary elections.
This is a pretty genuine phenomenon that we document in our paper at The Forum. People feel better about their own conditions than the country as a whole across a lot of areas! doi.org/10.1515/for-...
Affluence and the Demand-side for Policy Improvements: Exploring Elite Beliefs About Vulnerability to Societal Problems
An important stylized fact about American government is that many societal problems persist despite expert recognition that better outcomes are technically feasible. What explains the weakness of the ...
doi.org
Jordan Weissmann@jhweissmann.bsky.social · 2y agoViews of health insurance are a lot like views of the economy in recent years. If you ask people how American health coverage is in general, they say it’s pretty bad. If you ask people how much they like their own insurance, they say it’s pretty good.
Trying to interpret the swing state swings from 2016-2024 is hopeless. Each election was won by a margin of between 80,000 and 250,000 votes (total) in MI, PA, and WI. There are members of the California State Senate with those kinds of margins.
I was at a bar with my twin brother last night and one bartender commented that we looked like twins. The other bartender would not believe it until my brother took his glasses off when her mind was blown. I have a newfound respect for Clark Kent's disguise.
It's like Cersei Lannister's Small Council in Game of Thrones. You'd struggle to draft a worse set of people.
The New York Times@nytimes.com · 2y agoPresident-elect Donald Trump has quickly begun to assemble the list of people who will serve in his cabinet and in other senior positions during his second term. Here’s who has been announced so far. nyti.ms/48POMX5
Encouragingly, prebunking by election officials that explains the reasons that the vote count can take multiple days reverses the harms to election confidence that delays otherwise cause (especially among Republicans) academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Why isn’t there greater political pressure in the United States to enhance public policy? A new study from Alan Gerber, @ericpatashnik.bsky.social, and @maclockhart.bsky.social finds a clue in affluent Americans' perception of insulation. bit.ly/3X1zEjD
