Macronin
@macronin1.bsky.social
Risk taker not influencer. Not advice. HF guy and a *gulp* fintech founder. Some clown got to macronin first.
The first derivative of this chart doesn't look great, especially as SPR release came before commercial draws. China data is just not that knowable, and is a much bigger impact this time around / isn't reflected in the data series.
George Pearkes@peark.es · 3d agoEasiest way to see this is US commercial inventories. Low, especially compared to the last 10y, but very much not apocalyptic.
One month implied correlations on the SPX are now 5% the figure. I have never seen it this low. The market is now trading: In AI: a) Be long the gold mines (Hyperscalers) b) Be long the picks and shovels (Capex beneficiaries of hyperscalers).
Honestly, not to be a “pick me” but kinda shocked I’m getting more rizz for niche target 2 malarkey than this banger.
Macronin@macronin1.bsky.social · 6d agoFriend just told me that “asche “ is slang for cash in German. “Brenner” means burner. It is too much. Look, hat tip to a kid that raised a lot of dough, made it compound like crazy, then Livermore’d himself by overleveraging a volatile asset base.
Well, the counterfactual is this: the debt burden of the periphery is payable in Euros. Your solution involves a massive fx-> credit shock that will make both the hard currency savers AND the soft currency borrowers poorer. The Germans most of all. They’ll experience a 📣 default on their savings.
This is snake oil. Robin won’t have to wear the consequences, but the financial system will. Target 2 balances have a credit effect which is material. You can’t have a current account surplus without a capital account deficit.
Robin Brooks@robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 4d agoThe end of the Euro will mean Germany has to write off its TARGET2 claims. High-debt countries will have big devals and debt write-downs. This will make Europe stronger, not weaker. Everyone will be able to contribute on shocks like Ukraine, unlike now... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-the-e...
When I was a kid driving across North America to get to Uni, they had no speed limit… they also don’t drive like Germans… so uh, there was that.
PPP Grifter 🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️@pppgrifter.bsky.social · 4d agoSpeeding tickets in Montana rock. Going 100, got the guy to cite me at 90 and it’s only $40. Basically a small fee to speed.
Wind shifted to the South. I thought that was good, until I see Spokane burning down. Mother Nature doesn’t care about our views.
This is dumb. The deemed domiciles are leaving and can no longer claim non-dom status, which skews the numbers. Importantly, fewer are arriving. This tax season looks much, much worse.
Arthur Snell@snellarthur.bsky.social · 6d agoNo shit!
Friend just told me that “asche “ is slang for cash in German. “Brenner” means burner. It is too much. Look, hat tip to a kid that raised a lot of dough, made it compound like crazy, then Livermore’d himself by overleveraging a volatile asset base.
conspiracy theorists: Fifa is trying to help Argentina win the World Cup! Fifa: how about we organise the next tournament without Europe?
Behold… optimal f…
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 6d ago“.. It had borrowed billions of dollars from Wall Street banks to amplify its bets, and those banks had in recent days begun asking for some of that money back, according to the three people briefed on the requests.” @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/07/30/b...
We’d be stupid to ignore people with 10,000 years of experience.
The Walrus@thewalrus.ca · 2w agoCanada’s wildfire strategy may be overlooking its strongest defence. As First Nations communities face a disproportionate share of evacuations, Indigenous-led crews are proving local knowledge can save lives. Will governments follow their lead? https://thewalrus.ca/first-nations-firefighters/
Hong Wang, who proved the three-dimensional Kakeya set conjecture, has just won the Fields Medal, making her the third woman in the award’s 90-year history to receive math’s highest honor. Read our profile: www.quantamagazine.org/hong-wang-wi...
Hong Wang Wins 2026 Fields Medal, the Third Woman Ever | Quanta Magazine
Focus, commitment, and insight resulted in a “once in a century” proof. Hong Wang is now just the third woman to win a Fields Medal.
quantamagazine.org
Reduction in trade frictions in Canada a no brainer.
George Pearkes@peark.es · 2w agoCanadian free trade! *CANADA PROVINCES TO ALLOW DIRECT ALCOHOL SALES BETWEEN THEM
I failed to live down to the pessimism brand this morning, Simon is doing it right.
Simon Usherwood@simonusherwood.bsky.social · 2w agoRight, let's have a look at the new UK line-up for EU relations tl;dr complete clear-out of senior politicians and reduced weight in Cabinet 1/