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MarkMan

@madmanmark84.bsky.social

Just another older white guy, 1st-gen college in a purple state & family

3584 Posts466 Follower201 Folgt
MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · yesterday

[gift link] Ezra Klei in-depth intervie w/ Jasmine Sun about local opposition to data centers in Wisconsin & Michigan It's astounding how badly AI companies bungled their PR here. Starting with NDAs. A lot of this anger might have not been here, if they had competent people thinking things through?

Opinion | The A.I. Giants Weren’t Prepared for This

Jasmine Sun, a writer covering technology, takes us into the backlash against A.I. data centers.

nytimes.com

MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 3w ago

With reports that our air bombardment of Iran has greatly intensified today, time to repost this prophetic interview from nearly four months ago, from a man who'd know better than most

There are three great seductions that happen to American administrations and to the military. The first is the idea of covert action. A new president comes in, and he’s told by the intelligence community, “We can create this great effect and it will be covert. No one will ever know who did it, and it’ll just be a good outcome.” And in my experience, it never stays covert and it rarely works. The second seduction, which I lived as a part of, is the surgical Special Operations raid. That is probably epitomized by the Maduro raid. I would argue that we demonstrated extraordinary competence that night, but not much changed. I don’t think that we actually demonstrated the ability to change the facts on the ground to any extent. Which gets to the third great seduction, and that’s air power. We all love air power. In World War II, we went into the war with the Douhet theory, that air power, the bomber, will always get through, and therefore air power will be dominant. It was certainly very, very contributory, but it was never dominant. When we got into Vietnam, which was the classic case, we developed a strategy that said: For North Vietnam, we will have an escalation strategy, and we will raise the pressure on them until we hit the point at which they’re willing to quit. It’s not worth it anymore. What we didn’t perceive is — like the Shia wounded that your medics ran into — there was no point for North Vietnam. They were asymmetrically committed to the outcome. So, we entered Iraq in 2003 with “shock and awe,” and then we spent a decade there fighting after it. I think, in this case, we again fell for the seduction that if we bomb key targets, we will produce the outcome we want — but the outcome’s in the minds of the people. And unless you’re going to kill all the people, you may not affect that outcome. You used the word “quagmire” in your article — but we may be at a point where we’ve run into a country that has an extraordinary capacity to be bombed.
MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 5mo ago

[Gift link] David French interviews retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal ___ "If you like this war, enjoy this first part, because this is the best part. Because everything after this will be harder, because it will be more equal, even though we will have bombed them. We’ll have to get down to a level."

MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · last mo.

Just when I thought 2.5 more years of Trump couldn't possibly be more exhausting [gift link] "... the U.S. and Iran are relitigating ... issues that were meant to be resolved already. This one step forward, two steps back pattern of negotiations is familiar to veterans of nuclear talks with Iran."

Trump Pledged No Forever Wars. Now He Risks Forever Talks With Iran.

Tehran has a well-worn playbook for drawing out negotiations and putting off concessions that cross its redlines.

wsj.com

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last mo.

NEW: Iran is taking steps to establish a joint mechanism with Oman to try to exercise long-term authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Such a mechanism would enable Iran to regulate transit through the strait and decide to restrict passage at its discretion.🧵(1/9)

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MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 2mo ago

There's so many instance where Trump bulldozes democracy that you need to call out the occasional instance where he is thwarted. This⬇️is the kind of thing that may not be "top of the page" news, but it's *very* important for the long term. AMOC slowing is a HUGE worry, we must understand it better.

Dean Napolitano@dinonapolitano.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Trump Administration Backs Off Plan to End Ocean Monitoring The reversal comes after the Senate passed a bipartisan bill on Wednesday to block the removal of deep-sea monitoring instruments. By @maxinejoselow.bsky.social

Barred and Boujee aka Madiba Dennie@audrelawdamercy.blacksky.app · 2mo ago

there is a word for requiring people to work and refusing to pay them! a whole Civil War was fought over it & the Constitution was amended! and yes I know about the prison slavery exception to the 13th Amendment's prohibition -- but that doesn't even apply here! ballsandstrikes.org/law-politics...

The Delaney Hall Strike Is Exposing a Massive Thirteenth Amendment Crisis

The Delaney Hall Strike participants haven’t been convicted of anything—and are still being forced to work for nothing.

ballsandstrikes.org

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MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 2mo ago

A picture worth 1,000 words: G7 leaders gathering just before the official photo is taken. One leader is "officially" a part of the group, but in reality, as captured here, he stands alone, shunned and sullen.

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MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 2mo ago

This kind of thing needs to be front & center in every campaign this fall. Force candidates to go on the record about general abuse of executive power, focusing on issues that resonate particularly in the small towns where these are being built.

molly taft@mollytaft.com · 2mo ago

NEW: the US government intervened Monday on behalf of xAI in a lawsuit over its gas turbines, claiming that the company needs to run the turbines in order to power Grok, which is "vital" for national security lots of wild stuff in the filing:

MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Created a gift link Because it's an important read Also some discussion of what Pope Leo XIV's encyclical on sharing profits said, in the context of Pope Leo XIII's 1891 encyclical about capitalist barons of the industrial revolution (is this why he chose the name "Leo?")

The Record Divide Between Corporate Profits and Worker Pay

Labor’s share of economic output just hit an all-time low, while the profit share neared a record. It helps explain why consumers feel so glum.

wsj.com

Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 2mo ago

GREG IP: “.. Adjusted for inflation, hourly wages are up 3% since the end of 2019 while profits are up 50%. That, in a nutshell, explains the chasm between an ebullient stock market and anxious public.” @wsj.com www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Sonny Rollins has passed. The last surviving person from this iconic 1958 photograph, "A Great Day in Harlem" This photo is so iconic that someone brought together many of the people still alive in 1996 to the same locations, below the original photo (literally to the foot - but Rollins was absent)

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MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 3mo ago

@markjacob.bsky.social's point bears repeating: "The IRS leak that was the subject of Trump’s suit occurred in 2018-2020, when he was president. So, in effect, he was suing over what his own IRS did." Such a dogshit sandwich that even a few usually-spineless GOP Senators are loathe to swallow it.

Inside the Senate G.O.P. Meltdown Over Trump’s Fund

nytimes.com

Mark Jacob@markjacob.bsky.social · 3mo ago

The IRS leak that was the subject of Trump’s suit occurred in 2018-2020, when he was president. So, in effect, he was suing over what his own IRS did. Then he dropped the suit after he got his own Justice Department to give him a $1.8B slush fund to reward his thug army. What an outrageous scam.

MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 3mo ago

NYT reviews Trump's jawboning of markets since war began and observes the market manipulation effect it had dropped a lot during the course of April In short, fewer and fewer investors believe Trump when he speaks. Now if only MAGA voters could get there too ... [gift link]

How Trump Has Talked About Ending the Iran War (Gift Article)

The New York Times analyzed the president’s statements suggesting that the conflict was drawing to a close and compared them with the reality of the moment. Often, there was a wide disconnect.

nytimes.com

MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Live updates: skepticism abounds

Oil prices are swinging wildly today. Brent crude-oil futures have traded in a range between $105.55 and $114.30 over the past day, as traders react to developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Prices surged over 5% this morning after Iranian media reported that a U.S. Navy vessel was struck by missiles—a development that U.S. Central Command denied. The moves illustrate the uncertainty and anxiety that have followed President Trump’s announcement yesterday that the U.S. will start guiding commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices initially fell following Trump’s announcement yesterday, sliding more than 2%, then pared their losses and traded choppily before surging on the Iranian missile strike claims. Even before the report, traders weren’t feeling particularly hopeful about Trump’s plan, which intends to use countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations to move traffic through the strait. It doesn’t currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the waterway, two senior U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal. Analysts and shipping experts are skeptical of that working, noting Trump’s previous attempts to reopen the waterway, including his rebuffed request for NATO allies to send warships. Some say the situation likely won’t change without naval escorts.
MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 3mo ago

I've been in the market since just after the '87 crash, so I should take "irrational exuberance" in stride by now. But I'm still struggling to wrap my head around this mindset I've learned over that time that POTUS actions don't strongly drive the long term direction. But this time feels different?

"It might not happen, but it could happen any day," is not the sort of prediction that would usually drive stock markets to record highs. But the words from President Donald Trump , used to describe the state of peace negotiations with Iran , seemed more than enough for markets to shrug off renewed attacks in the Middle East that put a fragile cease-fire at risk. Markets have remained loyal to the idea of an end to the war and a retreat in global oil prices this week, taking stocks to all-time highs and adding to the extraordinary gains recorded since the end of March. Thursday's session was somewhat darkened by the conflict, and a broader lack of enthusiasm for chip stocks, but both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq could claim new highs by the end of the week if the April jobs numbers show progress and bond markets retreat from their recent peaks. But the escalation in the Gulf over the past 24 hours -- and the spike in crude prices taking Brent back above the $ 100 a barrel mark -- is nonetheless worrying, even with the president's oxymoronic assessment of the current truce. "I'll let you know when there's no cease-fire," Trump told reporters in Washington . "You're not going to have to know, you'll just have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran ."
MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 4mo ago

After Trump's speech last night, I can't stop thinking about this Gen McChrystal interview from 10 days ago. What I took from Trump's "plan" for "2-3 weeks" is that he sees no clear end to this. "Two weeks" is a well-known Trump trope for "IDK", and that he added "3" mean even he realizes it's bad.

For Trump, ‘Two Weeks’ Is the Magic Number

nytimes.com

MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 5mo ago

[Gift link] David French interviews retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal ___ "If you like this war, enjoy this first part, because this is the best part. Because everything after this will be harder, because it will be more equal, even though we will have bombed them. We’ll have to get down to a level."

MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 4mo ago

One of the most depressing things about living in this moment is that you have to pick & choose on a daily basis which justifiably huge scandal to even focus on Today (SO far) it's between this & reports Hegseth's broker was calling to make investments in defense stocks right before the Iran attack

Charles Ornstein@charlesornstein.bsky.social · 4mo ago

NEW: Trump’s Justice Department Dropped 23,000 Criminal Investigations in Shift to Immigration, by @kbmorales.bsky.social and @davidarmstrongx.bsky.social

MarkMan@madmanmark84.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Thought-provoking NYT editorial taking the POV that America's problems go much deeper than Trump - he's in some ways a symptom of a national delusion that far predates him. Another reader has shared a gift link. I'll add an excerpt hitting on Polgreen's main point (as I see it): the USA's hubris

Is Trump a freak of history or its fulfillment, an aberration or a culmination? The answer, surely, is both. But Trump has revealed a much older malady: America’s unshakable faith in its ability to shape the world to its liking, indifferent to what others might want and supremely confident that its plan is the right one. Beyond Trump, it’s this disfiguring mentality we Americans must face. The election in 2008 of Barack Obama, a critic of the post-9/11 wars, seemed to be a moment of reckoning with American illusions. Notwithstanding his feints toward American humility in the world, he embraced many of the outsize powers he inherited to make high-tech war in distant places with little oversight. America continued to act unbounded. Striding onto the national stage, Trump tapped into an old American story. Trump’s whole life was a dress rehearsal for this moment: constantly imposing his will, wriggling out of scrapes, never held accountable, born on third base and thinking he’d hit a triple. He was the American illusion of omnipotence incarnate. Trump collapsed the distance between his personal will and American will. Like America, Trump cannot fail; he can only be failed. Everything is always someone else’s fault. Handed the tools of the imperial presidency, he clearly regards America as identical with his person. He jettisons all pretense of constitutional order. He will know in his gut when wars are won, he’s said, and the only limits are his own sense of morality. America does not know how to exist in a world it does not control. Since its inception, America has assured itself it was simply too big, too far away and too richly endowed to suffer any serious consequences for its actions. But there will be no escaping the cataclysm in Iran. In its wake, there is a chance to recognize our place in an interconnected world and see ourselves clearly. The way out of the cycle of failure and betrayal is to shed our illusions, once and for all.
DebraToTheLeft@debratotheleft.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Here’s a gift link (no paywall) to Lydia Polgreen’s spot-on history of America’s myth of omnipotence. @polgreen.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/o...