"Polls tell us a lot, but they cannot capture the forces that move conflicted individual voters in the final days of a campaign." Ahead of the U.S. midterms, #WesternU prof. Matthew Lebo shares his insights in an opinion piece for @theglobeandmail.com.

Polling shows Democrats ahead as the midterms approach, but polls cannot capture the partisanship of elections

It’s hard to overstate how little the actual candidates matter to Americans’ voting choices

theglobeandmail.com

Trump hit 30% approval in Pew's latest survey. If he's in the 20s with Democratic majorities in the House and Senate in 2027, that will be interesting.

AH, 1932: "For fourteen long years these parties have raped German freedom, beaten German men with clubs. Before two or three months pass this terror will be removed if you vote for National Socialists." encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/f... DJT, 2026:

This is great but $100M funds only 12-13 PhDs. Yes, let's recruit international PhD students and, yes, regular Ontario stipends are way too low. But these need to be addressed with regular budgeting. Fundraising and interest on endowments isn't nearly enough. www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...

University of Toronto launching $100-million scholarship fund to attract PhD students

New program aims to help school compete for bright minds at a time when elite U.S. universities are under attack by the Trump administration

theglobeandmail.com

My take in the Globe and Mail on what midterm polls in the US can and cannot tell us: www.theglobeandmail.com/world/articl...

Polling shows Democrats ahead as the midterms approach, but polls cannot capture the partisanship of elections

It’s hard to overstate how little the actual candidates matter to Americans’ voting choices

theglobeandmail.com

When the leopards are eating faces that look a lot like yours and there are very few faces left to eat.

Scott Nover@scottnover.bsky.social · 3w ago

BREAKING: TV pool will not be providing coverage of presidential events until further notice b/c of CNN's ban, pool chair and FOX News Washington Bureau Chief Bryan Boughton said. It's effectively a boycott by the fellow members — ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

The new Chunnel is going to be awesome.

NBC News@nbcnews.com · 3w ago

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tells Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney that she wants to open the door for Canada to become the European Union’s first associate member.

Trump didn’t promise or pledge $5,000. What’s the right word for saying something you have no intention or history of following through on? Maybe “Trump Dangles $5,000”?

Dave Rohde's work was also a foundation for a 2011 JOP article I wrote with Andrew O'Geen. Our point: "We would adjust CPG to say that leaders will use the powwer delegated to them in order to help (or hurt) a president from their (the opposition) party." www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1...

Journal of Politics@thejop.bsky.social · last mo.

Please check out our new Special Issue In Memory of Prof. David W. Rohde, who passed away on June 20, 2026: bit.ly/4A6KWWL

Most presidents lose popularity --> fewer people identify with the president's party as they stay in office --> support for policies of the president's party go down. Is that what we've been calling thermostatic public opinion?

E.J. Fagan@ejfagan.com · last mo.

Love this figure. I've added the House popular vote or presidential vote. You can see the turnout dynamics shift, where Democrats badly underperformed in midterms from the 1990s-2014 compared with presidential electons then the dynamic flips in 2018. Last two Gallup surveys were D+10 (dashed line)

Donald Trump also began telling the completely untrue story that he saw hundreds of Muslim Americans in New Jersey celebrating as the towers fell. He told that story so many times and it was such an obvious sign that he's not just a racist and a liar but a hate-monger. The media failed there too.

shauna@goldengateblond.bsky.social · last mo.

receipts for anyone who’s never heard this clip before (the reporters giving him a tongue bath and so much unearned respect is how we got here, but i digress)

Has he ever admitted the truth of a fact that reflects badly on him?

Tom Pepinsky@tompepinsky.com · last mo.

Has the current president -- the most famous person on the planet, whose public life is an open book -- ever admitted defeat in anything, ever? This is the perspective one needs to have on the midterms and the preparations that we are seeing for them.

For example, Texas exports $34.6B to Canada annually. Perhaps the 138,000 Texans employed in those businesses will trust a Senator Talarico to end the tariff war faster than Ken Paxton would. canada-in-usa.com/wp-content/f...

Matthew Lebo@matthewlebo.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Polls show Senate toss-up races in Iowa, Texas, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and Michigan. Canadian retaliatory tariffs can target those states and hurt Republicans lots. Six year terms for Democrats there would mean impeachment trials and oversight in 2027 + a Dem majority on Jan. 6th 2029 and beyond.

Polls show Senate toss-up races in Iowa, Texas, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and Michigan. Canadian retaliatory tariffs can target those states and hurt Republicans lots. Six year terms for Democrats there would mean impeachment trials and oversight in 2027 + a Dem majority on Jan. 6th 2029 and beyond.

The Associated Press@apnews.com · 2mo ago

BREAKING: The U.S. is imposing 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian products after last-ditch negotiations failed. Canada promises to match the tax.

Yes, it's all partisanship thinly disguised (Kramer 1983). But so will be the votes of today's don't knows. Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents will find their way back to the Republican candidate by November.

David Darmofal@daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 2mo ago

& consistent with what my fellow political scientists @matthewlebo.bsky.social @egojunk.bsky.social & I have been saying about partisan screens in policy views & how any effects in November are likely to be turnout effects: among NC Republicans, 40% blame Biden & only 4% blame Trump.

On a morning with a -23,000 jobs report (and -103,000 in revisions), FoxNews leads with a headline of scary liberals and people of color setting things on fire. You have to scroll way down for the jobs news.

NYT headline "Slow but Steady Jobs Market Faces its Latest Test" to describe a monthly report of -23,000 jobs and revisions of -103,000 jobs. The average over the last 12 months is +26,000 jobs. Biden's last 12 months averaged +121,000.

A Practical Guide to Time Series Analysis by Suzanna Linn, Matthew J. Lebo and Clayton Webb We expand readers' knowledge of linear regression with detailed explanations and applications of key models used in time series analysis. 📚 https://cup.org/4upEZ3E

American democracy is changing fast & and this fall you can study it as it happens. PS 2192A follows the 2026 Congressional elections in real time w/ expert insight from Prof @matthewlebo.bsky.social through asynchronous lectures & live weekly conversations. Politics, alive & unfolding.

That is quite the email teaser, Vox.

How important is winning the Senate? The six conservative SCOTUS justices average 66 years old. With a Republican Senate, Alito (76) and Thomas (77) can retire and be replaced by Trump. Two new 50-yr old justices would bring that average down to 57 and there would be 5 Trump justices 61 or younger.

Happening this Monday morning! If you want to move beyond basic graphs in Stata, I hope to see you there! @statacorp.bsky.social

John V. Kane@uptonorwell.bsky.social · 4mo ago

👋 Happening in 1 week: my data visualization seminar with @instats.bsky.social. If you or your students use Stata and want to up your graph game, this is designed for you. June 8 and 9, 10am-2pm Eastern. Link 👇

Cool paper. Perfect title work. people.tamu.edu/~kellstedt/A...

You can tenure clock with an H1B but tenure usually requires a green card. It’s a good time for countries who value science and immigrants to welcome nearly tenured faculty from US unis. US green card applicants will now have to return to home countries to apply www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

US green card applicants will now have to return to home countries to apply, DHS says

Change criticized by advocates marks the latest significant move by the Trump administration on immigration policy

theguardian.com

In this poll 21% of Republicans disapprove of Trump but only 4% say they'll vote Democrat. Also 73% of Independents (including leaners) disapprove but only 26% say they'll vote Democrat. Approval is not voting, it's especially not congressional voting.

David Darmofal@daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 5mo ago

@matthewlebo.bsky.social & I are both political scientists & have been cautioning people not to infer collapsing Republican support in the midterms based on Rs' views on issues. Here's empirical support. Only 4% of Republicans currently plan for voting for a Democratic House candidate this year. 1/

Spoiler alert: Cassidy will behave exactly the same as before.

Mark Copelovitch@mcopelov.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Absolutely nothing is stopping Cassidy from caucusing immediately with the Democrats & calling for Trump's immediate resignation or impeachment. Nothing, other than his continued shameful cowardice & oath violation. Yes, he did the right thing in 2021. That was a long time ago now.

Also, add Puerto Rico and create Wyomontana.

darth™️@darthbluesky.bsky.social · 5mo ago

give DC statehood combine the dakotas save money on not having to change the flag

With 115,000 new jobs, the @nytimes.com today reports Trump's job market "Remains Solid." In August 2024, with the election coming, 142,000 new jobs meant hiring under Biden had "Shifted into Lower Gear." (The next month there were 254,000 new jobs in that lower gear).

A reporter asked me why Americans are so angry at each other. I said Reps hates Dems because Trump tells them to and calls them treasonous. And Dems are angry at Reps for electing someone so awful. The reporter of course gave the decade old basket of deplorables comment equal time.

Paul Fairie@paulisci.bsky.social · 5mo ago

The term "basket of deplorables" has a Wikipedia article about it.