Sometimes Nate posts pure truths.

Here’s an old slide on late volatility in presidential primary/caucus preferences. Common to have lots of movement in the last week, including diffs between final polls and results. Partly by real change, & partly b/c pollsters have to guesstimate who might turn out & weight their results by that.

Congratulations to Michigan Political Leadership Program graduates who won their primaries last night, including Jocelyn Benson, Christina Hines, Jeremy Moss, Sean McCann, & up to 8 in the State Senate & 13 in the House. Apply to join us next year at mplp.msu.edu

Think this is right. Gave the campaign a reality check and convince them to distrust the polls through the fall.

Don't look now, but the world has now installed 3TW of solar. Took 10 years to get from 100GW to 1TW. Less than 3 years to get to 2TW. Less than 2 years to get to 3TW. Analysts expect *9TW* by 2036.

The World Crossed a Major Solar Milestone. No One Noticed

The next phase of the boom may reveal a shift in who is gaining access to the technology.

bloomberg.com

A gracious concession: “I want to congratulate Abdul El-Sayed on winning the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. He is a doctor, a community health official, a Rhodes Scholar, and a dedicated Michigander. I am proud to offer my support as he takes on Mike Rogers in the general election…

Hi folks — we'll be doing a pre-APSA event on Callais on Sept 2 with Northeastern, on their campus. Register here and come join us! brennan.swoogo.com/callais0902

As of last night, there are now *7* pastors, former pastors and seminarians who've become Democratic nominees running for Congress. Some have already won safe Dem seats, and several are in hotly contested races. In multiple cases, the GOP has attacked their faith. religionnews.com/2026/08/04/p...

'They're not real pastors': As clergy run as Democrats, Republicans question their faith

(RNS) — 'It's a sign that they are really scared they're gonna lose this seat,' the Rev. Sarah Trone Garriott, a Lutheran pastor running for Congress in Iowa, said. She is part of a wave of religious ...

religionnews.com

Survey Statistics: structured MRP to smooth survey weights statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/08/04/s...

The raw turnout for this race is bananas. It dwarfs previous senate primaries. It’s higher than two of the last three presidential primaries in Michigan, and equal to the third, 2020, with over a dozen candidates on the ballot.

The raw turnout for this race is bananas. It dwarfs previous senate primaries. It’s higher than two of the last three presidential primaries in Michigan, and equal to the third, 2020, with over a dozen candidates on the ballot.

A new feature I just added: before if a candidate was leading a county, no matter by how much it would show up as the same color. Now, the darker the color, the more they're leading by! LINK: electioncord.com/live-electio...

another reminder that No One Can Poll Michigan

Might be a long night, but not for me. Bedtime.

Decision Desk HQ@decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16h ago

DDHQ Race Update (est. 32% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary Abdul El-Sayed (D): 240,402 (49.2%) Haley Stevens (D): 230,630 (47.2%) Mallory McMorrow (D): 17,564 (3.6%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/283906

DDHQ Race Update (est. 25% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary Abdul El-Sayed (D): 199,050 (51.0%) Haley Stevens (D): 177,109 (45.4%) Mallory McMorrow (D): 13,850 (3.6%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/283906

The median voter wants a Republican who will give them Democratic policies.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 17h ago

Missouri Republicans have relentlessly tried to destroy ballot initiatives after voters used them to protect abortion rights, legalize weed, raise the minimum wage, and reform redistricting. They are currently sabotaging a veto referendum that should have suspended the GOP's new House gerrymander

Yes. He's a good R candidate who runs in all the wrong years. It's baffling.

Huh. Thought for sure the mods had split themselves out of contention, and they may have, but this is getting interesting.

civicAPI ☑️@civicapi.org · 17h ago

Michigan US House 7 Democratic Primary - Current Results - 🔵 William Lawrence (D) - 13,570 (37.9%) - 🔵 Bridget Brink (D) - 11,270 (31.5%) - 🔵 Matt Maasdam (D) - 10,974 (30.6%) ~30% reporting

It’s Thanedover

Boom.

eric gonzalez juenke@egojunk.bsky.social · 4d ago

Took a few cycles, but Shri Thanedar is likely going down on Tuesday’s Dem primary. He represents a 45% Black district in Detroit. This was a feared outcome for MI and Congressional Black caucus after 2020 redistricting and it looks like McKinney will now take over. www.politico.com/news/2026/07...

Republican power grabs in Kansas and Missouri are going down in flames with 18-25% of votes reported so far. Missouri's Amendment 4 aimed to make citizen-initiated constitutional amendments practically impossible. Kansas' Amendment 1 was designed to flip the state Supreme Court to ban abortion

These are going to be in our classrooms whether we want them or not.

3wombats@3wombats.bsky.social · yesterday

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary - Current Results - 🔵 Abdul El-Sayed (D) - 45,082 (63.2%) - 🔵 Haley Stevens (D) - 23,878 (33.5%) - 🔵 Mallory McMorrow (D) - 2,276 (3.2%) ~5% reporting

In Beta (for Bluesky only!) We were working on a program for live election results, but it's working so well that we're going to release it tonight as a test run! LINK: electioncord.com/live-electio...

My wife: he’s probably thinking about football. Me:

YES YES YES DEM JULIAN BEAUDION DROPS OUT OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA SENATE RACE www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Democrat exits Senate race in South Dakota, clearing way for independent

Julian Beaudion withdrew after resisting pressure to step aside, making South Dakota’s contest the third Senate race without a Democratic candidate.

washingtonpost.com

It would be very cool if the different sides of the “moderation” debate could pre-register some falsifiable hypotheses for the midterms. We will have some great ideological variation.

People will call this weak and cringe but it’s what Dems need after today. Time to buck up if they want to win in the fall.